JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I mean we’re talking about right here right now. He’s a solid #3 on a playoff contender. Anyways, Thorpe sure appears to be a guy that’s going to give 150+ innings a season with an ERA in the upper 3s. This win is a huge win for the Sox/Getz if he does that.

It is for a playoff contender

Correct. Outside of 2022, Cease has never been peak Verlander. He’s more like “peak Javy Vazquez” when he’s going good. That’s certainly good for a solid #3 but 2024 Erick Fedde is also a solid #3 and the Sox aren’t going to get a king’s ransom when they trade him later this month.

Cease is no Garrett Crochet but certainly a solid #3.

Yea, his ERA will improve once he gets away from the Sox shitty defense. Oh wait..

I think it’s become very clear this season that 2022 was the exception not the rule for Cease. The first half of this season proves that despite pitching in spacious Petco in front of a better defense he’s nothing more than a #3 starter. Combine this with a half season less of control and his value is down. In fact, I’d say that his trade value isn’t much different than Erick Fedde at this point.

I guess this was a bit premature because Cease certainly didn’t pitch like peak-level Verlander for long. As we sit here on July 5, his ERA is up to 4.24 and rising FAST. His trade value today is certainly less than where it was four months ago. Apparently Getz was right to pull the trigger when he did.

Which is precisely what I suggested in this thread back in April. Posters were talking about limiting him to 80-100 innings this season and I asked what are you going to do when he reaches 100 innings in early July? Of course, no one (Sox or potential trade partner) is going to shut him down the rest of the season when 3 months still remain.

Crochet would be even more valuable than he currently is if everyone assumed good health for him too. But Crochet is also more valuable when fully healthy than Robert. Robert had a career year and was essentially fully healthy last season and produced a ~5 WAR season. Crochet’s upside over a full season as a starter is 6-8 WAR.

You’re assuming good health though. Why?

How much surplus value is there really if he’s making ~$18M per after this season? He’s proven himself as, what, a ~3 WAR player on avg per season? So maybe there’s ~3-4 WAR in surplus value remaining on his contract? Personally, I don’t think that’s worth a king’s ransom. To me, Crochet has more trade value than Robert despite having one year less of control remaining.

You absolutely nailed it on Crochet as a starter

With all due respect, @ptatc has been very wrong about Crochet all year so I don’t know why this time would be any different

Hey if the Sox win this series they’re only 29 games back in the Central

Sox have outscored their opponents 35-20 over their last 6 games. Gotta be one of their best one week stretches this season.

Robert OPS at .823. Finally getting healthy?

4 years. We’re right next to York. What didn’t you like about Nashville?

Avg age in AA is 24.6 so in 4 months he’s 5 months older than the average. Not a big deal if he shows he can perform there in the second half of this season and lay a path for starting with Charlotte next season.

Ah ok. Now you’re in Elmhurst? Me too.

I thought you lived in TN or was that a joke?

Seems like an inexact science to me, which is why I never understood setting an exact number of innings as a limit for the season. Are 7 innings where the pitcher throws 90 pitches the same as 7 innings where the pitcher throws 115 pitches? Should we be comparing a 6’6” 245 lb frame to a 6’1” 185 lb frame for previously established precedent? There are so many factors that make each situation unique imo.

But Chris Sale also had a huge jump in workload from 2011 to 2012. He was fine for years after that.

What happens if he goes 150 this season and 175+ next season while continuing to perform at a high level? Will he have established a new precedent for pitchers coming off TJS moving forward?

Late first round perhaps? If he keeps this up another couple months, he’ll be cracking T100 prospect lists in the offseason. An OPS in the .850-.900 range as a true 18 year old in A ball would be impressive.

At this point, would you be surprised if he pitches 150 innings this season while maintaining an ERA in the low 3s? I figure he’s got another ~12 starts and 50+ innings in him before the season ends.