JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Márquez has a career WAR of 17 and he’s only 29 (only 3 WAR less than Burnes at same age). Mahle, Salazar, and Ray all got hurt. That’s a different argument altogether. Wright was horrible before his one good season (Crochet has been very good his entire career when he’s on the mound). Dylan Bundy doesn’t even belong in this conversation.

You’re comparing position players and a reliever with career years to a starting pitcher. How many starting pitchers led the league or were close to leading the league in strikeouts in their mid 20s and then fell off the face of the earth after that? The only case I can think of happened 20+ years ago with Rick Ankiel. Outside of injury, it just doesn’t happen. You don’t luck into a 200+ strikeout season.

And Glasnow had to wait until his final year of arbitration with more prior success than Crochet to see that $27.5M per number. In this case, Crochet is taking on more injury risk by waiting because he’s still 2.5 years from free agency, not one. These aren’t comparable situations. Now if the Sox were looking to extend him after next season and he finished this season strong with moderate to good success again next season I would agree with you.

I don’t see it as a sign and immediate trade. If the Sox extend Crochet, I think they hold on to him for at least two more years. If they don’t extend him (far more likely), I see him getting traded and the team that trades for him working out an extension similar to what the dodgers did with Glasnow.

What does the second option look like if he gets seriously hurt over the next two years?

Glasnow got $27.5M per. You don’t think Glasnow had a better track record when he signed that contract than Crochet does today?

Do you think he’ll see more than $15M over the next two seasons via arbitration? For reference, Cease is at $8M this year and Glasnow was at $5M in arb 3.

Garrett won’t get much via arbitration the next two seasons because he’s starting from such a low base so if you offered to buy out his next two seasons of arbitration and then extend him another three seasons beyond that, you’re probably looking at 5 years / $75M range (Benintendi contract). If a team is unloading two borderline T100 mlb prospects for him, I think they will be very motivated to extend him along these lines.

It might not be this year that he sees an extension but a trade and extension like Glasnow did last offseason is what I envision for Crochet.

Cubs bullpen is trying to fight for the crown as the worst bullpen in chicago

I can’t think of a single example in recent years. Obviously whoever trades for him will extend him so he won’t hit the open market.

Uh oh. Looks like he’s fading again. Did the same thing last year but didn’t start fading hard until July. I said it in another thread a couple weeks ago but if I’m a GM of a playoff team this year I’m taking Crochet over Cease for the rest of the season innings limit and all. And beyond this year, it’s not even close imo.

Basallo’s bat is far less impressive if he’s a 1b long term

Give me Murphy and Nacho and the Braves can have Fedde.

Braves are shaping up as another nice possible destination for Fedde. Their starting pitchers are dropping like flies and have to wonder if López can continue pitching like an ace into October.

82.2 actually

Beavers and Wagner works for me

Doc, he’s at 15 starts already (and 82.2 IP)

Looks like Bradish is done for awhile. Could my early April prophecy of Fedde to the Orioles come to fruition?

They don’t have to be as good as them for it to be a winning trade for the Sox

Good point, especially given the Sox clubhouse dysfunction that @southsider2k5has been highlighting recently. Also worth noting that Cease started strong last season as well. His numbers in mid July were similar to where they are this season. He fell apart after that.

That’s fine but it doesn’t mean he isn’t very risky as a headliner either. Has had no success above A ball. I’m not saying he won’t but I would still consider him high risk. Painter’s risk is injury but I actually like that he’s already got TJS out of the way. Imo, that makes him less risky moving forward.

All prospects are risky. A 20 year old that hasn’t yet played above A+ ball is also risky.

I was advocating for them to hold him until July as well. I absolutely believe you trade Robert as quickly as possible and even suggested the same last offseason (so that wasn’t in hindsight either).

We do know that Robert is very injury prone so I’d argue his injury risk is higher than Cease. So if you were concerned about that for Cease you should be even more concerned about that for Robert.