witesoxfan

I still think Rizzo will be fine, but you are right, the results have been much, much better than anticipated.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 17, 2013 -> 08:51 AM) I'd call that an enormous, worse-than-kenny williams type overpay. I think you are overvaluing Quintana and Santiago (especially Santiago) and undervaluing Carlos Gomez. Gomez has been worth 6.5 fWAR this year and has been the 3rd best outfielder in the game. Over his last 991 plate appearances, he's put up .273/.324/.477/.801 splits and he has been the best defensive CFer in the game for full time players over the last 2 seasons. If you could get Gomez for just one of those two, or just one of those two plus Trayce, then you do so in a heartbeat. Beyond any of that, I want to point out again that I was just spitballing and I showed how quickly you can put together a decent team with a little ingenuity without giving up any real key minor league prospects.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 07:17 PM) Caulfield: In 2010, it was on September 8, I don't think the day has any significance. I don't think so either. I think it's just something at the end of the year when there will be home games left where they can honor the player.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 06:25 PM) I'm going to ask this question again, but what's going to allow us to compete by 2016? The prospect Marty wants us to buy for $60M? We don't have much offensively in the minors to get excited about or that we can honestly rely on to be ready at that time. The new CBA will definitely help us, but it could take 4 or 5 years before the system is fully replenished if all goes well. If we are going to continue on with this "what pieces do you have that will play on the next winner," then I think the Sox have 3 starters on the roster right now - Semien, Garcia, and Garcia. Semien and Avisail will be the two bigger ones of that group, but I think Leury is going to be the shortstop on that team as a good defender, good enough bat. At that point, I think you need to find 4 more pieces with at least 2 of those being very good players. My guess is that Abreu is priority #1 this offseason. He is the perfect fit for this team and they are in a very good position to sign him (and I think they will). McCann is probably #2, but I could see someone like Boston signing him, especially if they get knocked out this year. I'm not counting on him, but he would be a great fit too. I also think they'll look to move one of Quintana or Santiago for a young piece. It was mentioned off-hand either here or somewhere else, but Carlos Gomez is a guy I could see the Sox having interest in too, especially with how badly the Brewers need pitching. You deal Santiago or Quintana, Trayce Thompson, and a couple other smaller prospects and you have a CF and 3 or 6-7 hitter. Then you can make a move for someone at 3B. I've suggested Sandoval on several occasions (deal Viciedo/De Aza and Beckham with the idea that the Giants then move Scutaro to 3B; for argument's sake, we'll say it's De Aza) so I'll stick with that even if it wouldn't work for now primarily because it's not the names but the ideas that matter at this point. Without having dealt Ramirez, the lineup going into next year (and, as always, this is my personal take but not necessarily what it would actually be) Semien - 2B McCann - C Gomez - CF Abreu - 1B Sandoval - 3B Dunn - DH Garcia - RF Viciedo - LF Ramirez - SS Phegley/Flowers - C Garcia - 2B/SS/3B/CF Gillaspie - 1B/3B Danks - LF/CF/RF Legitimately, that team has a shot to compete and be very good in the Central. It also has a chance to struggle with on base percentage and be a very hit or miss offense. However, the defense should be good all around and there are back ups that are valuable defensive players too. Overall, I would expect that team to win 85 games with a lowside being about 75-78 wins and an upside being between 95-97 wins but the more important aspect of that offense is that you suddenly have pieces to build around throughout the lineup - the only hole you have going into 2015 is an opening at DH, and at that point I think you want to try and use it as a way to get guys days off. That's getting ahead of ourselves. --- This is one example I just spitballed. If you were actually in charge of the White Sox, there are several moves you can make to be competing by next season, let alone by 2016, without giving up valuable time-controlled minor leaguers (what little the Sox have anyways). --- (also, the idea of "buying" a B-prospect for $30 million is ridiculous and among the worst possible use of resources)

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) I read some article that said pitchers who throw 98 in high school and get drafted seem to throw 88 four years later. I do think college pitchers are easier to evaluate than hitters though. One thing that makes hitters harder to evaluate is aluminum bats. Wood vs. aluminum is a different game. You don't have to square it up on an aluminum bat, plus you can get a barrel a lot bigger at a light weight. I think since they have de-juiced the bats a little bit, it's a bit easier to evaluate, but it's impossible to disagree with this either way. If guys are throwing 98 at 21 and 22, they are likely going to keep it since their body has filled out a bit. I still think college hitters are safer bets to make the majors simply because you have evaluated them at a higher level and because pitchers still get hurt more often. The problem is that, because they stick out compared to everyone else, the great ones get drafted high. The Sox will still have the opportunity to get one of those guys this year though.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) If someone could guarantee you McCann would be your catcher for the next 4 years and put up a .766 OPS, I bet you would think signing him is a good idea. And Hunter's OBP the second half is cherry picking stats. I don't know how you say that's because he was 38. Don't 25 year olds have halfs like that? I could come up with stretches for every player where they aren't so good. Hunter signed as a FA with the Angels as a 32 year old. He had a higher OPS with the Angels than he did with the Twins. If the White Sox signed McCann for 4 years at $15 million and he put up a .766 OPS over the course of the contract, I'd be upset. I mention Hunter's 2nd half because older players tend to run out of gas sooner because they begin breaking down. 23-25 year olds also do this because their bodies aren't used to the stress of a full season. If Hunter is anything more than a .750 OPS player next year, I will be incredibly surprised, and, personally, I am expecting him to be closer to a .270/.325/.375 player next season. BTW, you keep coming back to Hunter. Why not bring up Adam Dunn? Justin Morneau? Kevin Youkilis? Roberto Alomar? There is no black and white number, but typically, as guys approach their mid 30s, their numbers will typically begin to tail off. Sometimes it can be sudden, sometimes it's slow, sometimes it's not until their late 30s, sometimes it's not until their 40s, but to this day, Father Time is undefeated. If you want to debate the merits of that, then you will be wrong. Robbie Alomar put up a .950 OPS at the age of 32, and it was .700 at 33. Fisk was putting up OPS's in the .820s when he was 40 and 41. He was also one of the greatest baseball players of all time. You want to use him as a baseline comparison to every player who's played the game? You can go ahead, I will stick to logic and reason and generally assume that as players reach their mid 30s, their games will fall off.

Studies have been done on this and while I can't find the article now, this is actually backwards. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured more often (comparatively speaking), to see their arms break down and lose velocity and break on pitches, and to have more randomized developments (unexpected loss in velocity, failure to develop secondary pitches, failure to throw effective breaking balls with lowered seams, among others). I don't recall the exact numbers, but among 1st round draft picks, it was something like 60-66% of college hitters play in the majors, 50% of college pitchers do, 50% of high school hitters, and 33% of high school pitchers.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) In other words, you need great, great players to win titles. Been the case since, I don't know, forever. Of course. Saying that Spoelstra is an offensive genius when he was generally considered to be a defensive guy as an assistant is silly. Calling him an offensive genius because they brought in LeBron, run an Iso offense with 2-3 guys on the wings who can hit 3s so LeBron can take it or kick is silly. I have also never once said that Spoelstra is a bad coach, just that the offensive genius thing is silly. The only real big wrinkle he added to the offense from the first season was having those wing guys standing at the line. I think that's something most guys could have come up with if they had LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and all those shooters.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) Not that huge of a difference considering he played until he was 45, and a catcher. In fact, his age 33 season was one of his worst as a White Sox. I think, while some players fall apart at 32, considering it a general rule, is way off, especially if speed isn't a major component of his effectiveness. Plenty of players are productive until they are 35 or 36 or even 38. People here worried about Detroit being the greatest team ever because they signed a 38 year old and had a 34 year old coming back from injury. You are telling me that just because he was a productive player until he was 43 and played until he was 45, there is not that big of a different between an .837 OPS and a .766 OPS? Because that's a silly argument. There is absolutely a significant difference and using an example of a guy who most consider to be one of the most durable players of all time is probably not a good comparison to most players in the majors. I thought Hunter and Martinez would struggle. Martinez did in the first half. Hunter has an OBP of .286 in the second half. None of this surprises me. I expect the struggles to continue next year and, while that team is great right now, I expect them to be in trouble in 3-5 years. I seriously would not be surprised to see the standings reversed come 2017. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 02:37 PM) Detroit was already a playoff team, and then they added a 38 year old on a short term, low risk contract. It may not be a general rule that players fall apart at 32, but absolutely IS a general rule that they get worse, sometimes gradually and sometimes suddenly. Those moves made sense for Detroit, who was just in the World Series, not for us and our 100ish loss season. If the Sox sign guys to 1 and 2 year deals this offseason and then deal them at the deadline (assuming they don't compete), I have absolutely no problem with it so long as they aren't blocking prospects.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) Ok, so let's just put an asterisk on all of Phil's titles and Pat Riley's and poppovich's and anybody who's ever won with a great player(s). #the internethasspoken -Phil Jackson has won 11 titles with essentially 4 different groups of players. His offense and coaching works. The last 2 with Kobe were probably the most impressive. -Every full season of Popovich's career (and even 1 lockout year), he's won at least 50 games. During the 98 season, they went 37-13, which is a 60 win pace. He has 4 Finals wins. He's had a zillion different players come through his system with the only constant being Tim Duncan. -Pat Riley won 5 titles with 2 different teams and made the Finals 9 times with 3 different teams. Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra had one of the best slashing 2's in the game in Dwyane Wade during his first 2 years and won 43 and 47 games. But please, by all means, tell me you are comparing Spoelstra to Jackson, Popovich, and Riley.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 02:00 PM) Carlton Fisk came to the White Sox as a 33 year old, often injured, catcher. Now, a lot of people here wouldn't have touched him. With as much as Stone has been mentioning McCann, you would have to feel the Sox will at least inquire. He was a Hall of Fame catcher who showed great longevity. Let's look at some numbers though, right? In Boston - .284/.356/.481/.837 In Chicago - .257/.329/.438/.766 You see our point

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 01:55 PM) Given the pitching staff that's already in place I don't understand why the team isn't in the position for a "quick fix". Also with the whole players "suck" after 32 talk being thrown around there aren't gonna be a few guys to sign who will live up to that 3-5 years of being good. Salty is the only player under 30 who's worth noting and I doubt the Red Sox let him go...I know there will be some guys who get non tendered or whatever that are going to be added to the current list of FAs but chances are those guys won't be good. Because the bullpen is a mess right now too. Realistically, we can say there are, minimum, 6 places that can be improved upon - LF, CF, 3B, 2B, 1B/DH, and C (if you want to compete next year, you are going to have to do it with Dunn because if you want him gone, you'll have to eat money (which then obviously can't be spent anywhere else) which limits how much you can spend on a replacement). If you sign Abreu, McCann, and Choo and somehow able to deal De Aza and Beckham for Sandoval, you are left with (and this would be my ideal lineup, but probably not the real lineup): Choo - RF (5/$100) Dunn - DH Sandoval - 3B ($8.25 in '14) Abreu - 1B (6/$72) McCann - C (4/$60) Garcia - RF Semien - 2B Viciedo - LF Ramirez - SS I think that team has a chance, but you are talking about big weaknesses at the end of the lineup, and then you still have to worry about putting together a bullpen. Reed, Jones, Webb, Petricka, and Lindstrom are probably your righties. For lefties, we could be talking about signing guys or using Veal/Leesman or anything in between. It's young, and it's got some talent, but I don't think it's overall really that impressive. I'm not sure that team wins the division...and frankly, you are adding $55 million in new guys alone, which does not seem realistic, so get rid of Choo or McCann. On top of that, you become the '07 Cubs if you sign all those guys. You end up with crummy contracts scattered throughout your team and once a few of them fall apart, you are screwed and can't get rid of them. No, you show patience. Sale, Quintana, Santiago, Danks, Rienzo, and Johnson are all under contract through at least 2016. There is plenty of time to build a winner with this rotation. Build it slowly and do it right. BTW, I understand why everybody loves the rotation, because it is very talented, but their rotation ERA is 3.99, which is 16th in the MLB and perfectly average. Compare the Sox rotation to the Tigers rotation and tell me whose rotation you'd rather have based solely on talent. I can tell you which I want. Take it nice and slow, there's no need to compete for a division and introduce more poor contracts into the mix when you have maybe a 5% chance of winning the division.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 12:59 PM) And you, like many, don't give him the credit he deserves because he has LeBron. Think back to '11 and compare them to '13 (offensively speaking) and it's not even close. "Pace and space" is what Heat fans call it. There's many articles you can find online dissecting the Heat's very complicated offensive schemes. Really? 2008-09 - PPG 98.3 (18th out of 30), Offensive Rating 107.8 (20th out of 30) 2009-10 - PPG 96.5 (25th out of 30), Offensive Rating 106.6 (19th out of 30) [sIGN LEBRON] 2010-11 - PPG 102.1 (8th out of 30), Offensive Rating 111.7 (3rd out of 30) I call it "Sign LeBron and let the best player since Jordan do his thing," but to each their own. QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) Oh gee, it's so easy maybe you can even coach? I love internet experts. If you gave me a team with LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and the rest of that crew, yeah, I'd probably win 55-60 games showing up drunk every game.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 01:28 PM) I hadn't gone that far(a whole year, I know) into the defensive metrics to know he was that bad in RF as well so that kinda curves my enthusiasm a bit but I'd still take the upside here. I've been watching plenty enough and I think putting a guy like Choo atop the lineup, a guy like Abreu in the middle of the lineup(if he is who we hope he is), adding Semien over Beckham(see previous parenthesis), and then maybe trading/acquiring a guy for a CF and or a catcher will put us right back in contention next year. Ala the Cleveland Indians. There are guys out there who are still doin work over the age of 35 even, it's not a given that he'll be awful come age 36. I think a guy like him who has a good eye could even pick up a contract after the 5 year he might get this offseason. Of course there are guys who put up good seasons after the age of 35 though, but the far greater percentage of players begin breaking down around the age of 31 and by 35 they are a shell of their former self. Choo could still be a viable platoon player at 35, but you don't want to pay $20 million for that.

When David DeJesus signed with the Cubs, he was 32 and had splits of .284/.356/.421/.776. During his age 30 season - Choo's current season - he put up splits of .318/.384/.443/.827 over 91 games. His age 31 season, he struggled mightily with the A's. With the Cubs, DeJesus put up a .258/.343/.403/.746 line. Through his age 30 season, Choo has a .289/.389/.466/.855 line. He's walked and slugged more, but they play similar styles. Choo putting up .260/.360/.415 is not out of the realm of possibility over the duration of the contract, and he could be a .250/.340/.380 type hitter or worse by the end of it. This is not a guy you give a lot of money too. As far as a quick fix...you don't worry about that. This is not a team that is in position for a quick fix. Sign a few guys who can be good players for 3-5 years to reasonable contracts, and call it an offseason.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 12, 2013 -> 11:00 AM) Bachelor party this weekend in the cities. I FELL IN LOVE WITH A STRIPPER AND DROPPED $120 ON HER

Fred Jackson intentionally dropped a pass on the last drive yesterday because it would have taken up too much time. How many other RBs are that smart?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 16, 2013 -> 10:48 AM) Someone will...Why not? He's played 58 games in LF so if they don't wanna move Garcia to left or center then I'm sure they can put Choo in left. Also he's only been hurt once the last 5 years so I wouldn't really call him injury prone. You are still paying a glorified platoon player $20 mill a year. Yes, he's very solid against RHP, but in 2 years he may be hitting .260 with no power. Do you really want to pay $20 mill a year for a guy who is putting up .260/.300/.400? With declining defense? Keep in mind those slugging numbers would probably be way worse

QUOTE (oldsox @ Sep 15, 2013 -> 07:00 AM) Let's re-visit this after the Rule V Draft. You might be right, but I see a lot of bad relief pitching every year. Guys who are afraid to throw strikes, etc. I can give you several examples on the Rockies' staff. (Corpus, Lopez, Oswalt). Kussmaul has been solid every year untill he went on the DL a few months ago. Not that this makes a big difference in the grand scheme of things. Guys with mediocre stuff who aren't afraid to throw strikes end up with ERAs in the 7s in the majors. No one is picking Kussmaul, and if they do, he'll be returned to the Sox shortly thereafter.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Sep 15, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) great finish in the BUF-CAR game !!!!!!!!!!!!! Gotta love the emotion from EJ

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 15, 2013 -> 12:38 PM) This confirms that WAR is damn near useless. No it doesn't. The Sox have a good young group of pitchers and they've traded a few during that time frame too who have contributed at the MLB level for other teams, which will be included in the White Sox draft class. fathom mentioned Konerko and Keppinger, but frankly, when Dunn is struggling, he doesn't do anything else to add value to a team which takes away from his overall value. Beyond that, guys like Viciedo and De Aza have struggled too while Beckham and Ramirez have been merely passable options. Using WAR to literally correlate to the stat "wins" is the incorrect usage of the statistic. WAR tries to take contextual information out of the process and value simply what a player does at the plate (or on the mound or in the field) under neutral circumstances and value that compared to all the other players at his position and in the game in general and give some idea as to the value of that player. I think Mike Trout is the best player, Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter, and Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher right now. WAR backs that belief up. Do you disagree with it?

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 13, 2013 -> 09:36 PM) Oh, and now he's playing with LeBron and an elite offensive coach with zero pressure to live up to his draft status. I think you were beginning to make competent arguments until this. Spoelstra is an elite offensive coach in the same way that Brian Billick is an elite defensive coach.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 12, 2013 -> 04:03 PM) Which is all they would need. They don't need him to live up to his draft status. Just to be a complimentary piece. And apparently it was Beasley who went to the Heat and said he had no problem with a non-guaranteed deal. So he wants to be there. It's one thing to f*** up with the Suns. You ain't comin' to South Beach and f***in' s*** up. First screw up, he's gone and he knows it. Well the bars are open till 5 AM, it's pretty easy to f*** s*** up. When we were on our way to our cruise ship, we saw some people who looked like they'd been on a bender all night looking to start it up again. And I'm sure the weed is just fine too. Plus there are far more women in Miami than there would be in Phoenix (not that Arizona is a problem). He might just thrive in a complementary role because he sure hasn't when he's been the guy.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 12, 2013 -> 02:00 PM) How has Dunn's last 4 weeks affected the "how good he's been the second half?" Hasn't he been gawdawful the last four weeks or so? I do realize without him we probably will have fewest homers in all of baseball next year. Hahn has so much work to do to avoid a repeat of this season. Sometimes things get worse before they get better

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Sep 12, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) It's also interesting to think about how much different the news cycle would have been with Twitter, smart phones, etc. Instead of rumors flying around HS hallways and people looking for TVs, the kid sitting in calculus would have found out immediately. May have also been easier to try to find people, etc. It could have been a misinformation nightmare. You saw the pandemonium during the Marathon bombings and 9/11 was that x1000000.