witesoxfan

(OPS/(AB/SB))*GLC (good looking catches) + INF 1Bs I figure Beltran is good enough defensively that he won't have to have a million amazing looking catches, whereas Byrnes and Erstad will be diving all over the place because of hustle points. And then there is the bust your ass down to 1B, that play is grinder through and through.

QUOTE(Hideaway Lights @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 06:04 PM) my point was that some people seem to have a very good idea of where brandon mccarthy is going to be, but "the jury's still out" on floyd...seem hypocritical. here's my main question - how many pitchers have pitched an over 7 era in the NL for their first 100 innings and then regained form to become serviceable major league pitchers? It's not like Garland or Contreras where he's hanging around the high 5s and 6s in the AL, he's in the SEVENS in the NL! It seems to me Sox fans not only can look at McCarthy's stats, but they also recall seeing him throw most of those 150 innings. It's not enough to judge him, but Sox fans can make a reasonable estimate as to the type of numbers he'd put up this year. I figure inconsistency, a mediocre to slightly above mediocre ERA, a good WHIP, and a high home run rate; that's from watching him pitch and looking at stats. I can't imagine you've seen Floyd throw more than what he's thrown this Spring plus maybe 2 other games in Philly; that's an assumption, and if my assumption is incorrect, correct me and I look like the ass. Else, going based off of career stats and like 20 innings of Spring ball isn't enough. Floyd has good stuff. If he can figure out how to pitch instead of just throw, he'll turn into a good pitcher. If not, he'll fade away quickly. Also, while I get what you're saying when you call Danks a AAAA player, I've never heard that type of player referred to as a AAAA player. I've always referred to them as prospects, and that's how I've always heard them referred as. Busted prospects or journeymen minor leaugers are AAAA players, and that's the only definition I've ever known for a AAAA player. Well, that and Japan, I guess, since they consider the quality of Japan to be above AAA but below MLB.

QUOTE(beautox @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 05:15 PM) lol @ Pedroia, he would be nice, but i doubt they'd give up their starting second basemen. But i could see the sox giving up Jed Lowrie who had some nagging injuries last year and Jon Egan, Since they've got Pedroia and Kottaras. Egan could be ready by the time AJ & Hall's contracts runs out. I too have loved what i've seen from Russell this spring, but i think we see Sisco/Gio/Danks ahead of him along with Broadway & McCulloch and Haeger, there is just so much depth in our system right now then add into the mix Garland has two years left with us 3 for Jose and 4 for Javy. This is likely Buehrle's last year with the Sox, and Contreras could easily get traded after 2008, and then Garland and Vazquez's contracts are starting to expire. I am definitely with Flash on this one taht the Sox should keep as many SP prospects as absolutely possible. Resign Iguchi, even if it means overpaying a little bit, and those two positions are filled for a while.

QUOTE(Hideaway Lights @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 04:36 PM) Floyd won't win as many games as Schoenweiss did in the major leagues, that's for sure talent doesn't mean anything when you can't keep your ERA in the same stratosphere as other pitchers Danks may be talented and might be great in a couple years but right now he is the textbook definition of a AAAA player Dude you sound clueless all around. You're basing your opinion on Floyd based off of statistics in 108 innings of work in the majors, and you call Danks a AAAAer player when every publication considers him a top 5 prospect within the White Sox system and he's thrown 70 innings at the AAA level. A AAAA player is a non-prospect, something Danks is. Danks would be a AAA player right now that may have to pitch in the majors...so no, he's not a textbook definition of a AAAA player. That's Jeff Bajenaru or Ernie Young or Jeff Farnsworth.

QUOTE(BFirebird @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 03:50 PM) Definitely. I was at the game, I believe it was last year, where Hafner came up and just annihilated a pitch from the Flame Thrower (AKA Cotts), before he turned totally bad. It was one of the hardest hit balls I have ever seen. That and the Bonds homer he hit off of Garland a few years back. He hit it to Right Centerfield, three-quarters of the way up and it left the yard in about 2.5 second. It was ridiculous. I remember Hafner taking Legend deep too. Just as DJ was trying to say that Logan will be fine and he's just got to not put a ball over the plate - ball over the plate, Legend's not fine, ball lands 450 feet away and the score was tied.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Mar 17, 2007 -> 11:49 PM) A dislike in the player. Possibly a man uncrush? Hill has 4 good games last year and now he's supposed to win between 15 and 20 games? Um, I don't see that happening. He has a very nice curve, he has nothing else to me. Mackowiak is an okay utility player, but people were begging for him here because he's from Chicago and because he's a "grinder" and because he's a "Cubs killer". I rather see Haeger or Sisco make this team over Logan. Bring me back Damaso before Logan. Look at the f'ing numbers before declaring such exaggerations that could be mistaken for truths. Rich Hill Gamelog I see 9 good starts out of 16, and all 9 of those good starts came in a stretch of 11 starts to end the year, from August on. It's conceivable and perhaps even probably that he'll put up a 4.50 ERA, but a kid taking steps as big as that - getting super hot for 2 months - could be pretty successful. He'll never be an ace, simply because his fastball isn't nearly good enough, but he could very easily be a #3 throughout his career.

Well atleast we can all pretty much agree upon the bullpen

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 09:18 AM) Strange as this may sound, but what if you used Ozuna as a DH against LHP? He has no power I know, but if he can get on base as effectively as last year, with the other power hitters already in the lineup, that may not be a bad move. Usually a move like that really isn't kosher with most general managers, because the common thought is that DH, like 1B, 3B, LF and RF, are power positions. I don't always believe that, but rather believe you just need an effective hitter there. Ozuna is an effective hitter, so, in my general thought, it's not a bad idea. However, I'm still not sure what's happening with Perez and Terrero here, and because Perez is that much of a better option at DH against LHP than Ozuna, he is that much more valuable. I'm not anyone of power, but if I were, Ozuna is the 25th man where my 26th man is making $2.9 mill (actually, I just call him my 26th man...he'd actually be like 30th or so, but that's another argument), so I have to have my 26th man on the roster. Because of that, I'm either going to try and trade Ozuna and get some value for him - which really isn't entirely likely - or I'll send him down to AAA. If neither work, and he won't accept the assignment, he gone. The Sox have Spivey in AAA right now who would fill that role perfectly if a situation where a backup 2B/SS/3B/LF/LHP killer were necessary. QUOTE(Colorado Sox Fan @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 09:33 AM) I like the idea of Perez, but the guy got hurt on a home run trot. I call him Eduardo Gramatica

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 09:04 AM) So if Perez makes the roster and Anderson does not, how would you propose to handle backup CF? Assuming Pods is the starting LF, would you take Terrero over Ozuna? That would be the most likely solution, with Iguchi leading off against LHP - I know his splits were mediocre, but that may be more of an anamoly than anything else. He was great against them in 2005, so it's hard to make a judgement on how well he actually does hit them. Hall or Perez could then hit 2nd and 6th respectively. Terrero just acts as a true 4th OFer, hopefully putting up an OPS around .700 off of the bench with good D. That seems as though it's the best case scenario in my mind right now, as much as we all love Ozuna.

QUOTE(IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 09:00 AM) I think it will be: Pods Erstad Konerko Thome Dye Iguchi Pierzynski Crede Uribe Ozzie will never bat Konerko 3rd because of how many times he'd ground into a DP. He'll hit cleanup like he has the past 3 years.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 07:42 AM) Thome certainly did struggle against lefties. But let's look at the other hitters who will likely play against LHP. PK, Dye, Ozuna and Hall all do very well against LHP. Crede, Uribe are not great, but their dropoff from vs RHP to vs LHP is not large. Iguchi and Thome are the ones who split poorly against lefties (though Cintron does reasonably well against LHP and could play 2B some of the time), and then we have the mystery CF position. And since there is no way Perez is playing CF, his only real use is as a DH against LHP. Look at it in terms of the choices available. If you take Perez instead of Terrero (assuming for a moment that Anderson is in AAA), then you gain a solid bat against LHP for the DH position. But what you lose is exactly what everyone on this board complained about not having last year - a backup CF!!! Which is more important? To me, having a CF who isn't a complete disaster out there is far more important than the DH position against LHP. Of course, it should also be noted that if Anderson stayed with the club, you could maybe solve both these issues in one roster spot. But that seems unlikely at this point. And this proves entirely how worthless Podsednik really is to the club, even if indirectly. Exactly as you pointed out, if Anderson were the CFer, and Erstad the LFer, not only would the OF defense be improved, but it's very likely that the offense would improve as well. And, if Anderson needs a day off, Erstad slides over to CF - surely, Ozzie would allow a starter to play two different positions! Perez could be the difference between the playoffs and golfing in October. It's an absolute necessity to get him on the roster. And, if that means getting rid of Ozuna, it should absolutely be done. Ozuna's a hell of a sparkplug, and I love the guy as a fan, but plain and simply he's a horrible defender, he doesn't have power, and the speed he does have he can't put to use on the bases. He's still my sleeper to not make the roster too, because I've almost no doubt Podsednik will.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 07:27 AM) But the question is, where is that patience best used? Brian is a heck of an athlete, and seems to have all the tools to become a solid player, but he doesn't have a major league batting approach yet (he's gotten by, until now, mostly on pure athleticism). So is he better served working that out with the big club, or with a year (or part of a year) at AAA? I don't know that there is a definite answer to that, but I think its the important question to ask. I do still think he is a better choice to start in CF than Erstad for this year, but not by much. In April and May of last year, Anderson didn't have a major league hitting approach. He just looked awful at the plate and was a very selfish hitter. As the year went on, he became less selfish and much more patient, looking for his pitch to hit or otherwise drawing the walk. I think this year he'd put up a very respectable line if given consistent playing time, but nothing inredibly outstanding either. Maybe something like .250/.330/.400/.730...that's essentially an Aaron Rowand line for all you crazy grinders out there.

QUOTE(max power @ Mar 19, 2007 -> 01:41 AM) What a total waste of a human being. I hope he vomits dip juice all over himself, falls in the street trying to clean himself up, gets run over by a dump truck, and dragged half a mile until his entire body is raw, then gets stabbed in the anus with a rusty switch blade. he just likes peeing on people

QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 09:33 PM) I want to suggest this again(Didn't read the thread if it has been already suggested): Do we need a 5th starter for April? I don't think we do. Why not send everyone down for some extended competition? Keep Haegar up for the last pen spot and use the extra roster spot for a posistion player. April 11, April 22, April 27 It's needed like right away. Maybe it's conceivable that both could get a start in Charlotte before it's determined, but it's one start and no more than that.

QUOTE(Y2HH @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 08:00 PM) All of this said -- perhaps I will have to re-evaulate my opinion of Weaver's "strategery". History says it worked...I just find myself thinking that it doesn't matter how you score runs, whether it be by the long ball or the small ball approach, just so long as you can do it when the situation dictates and with the personal you have available. Precisely. If you need 1 run, there's a man on base, and it's late in the game, the hitter should not be thinking longball. That is about the only time small-ball should be played, atleast in the AL. In the NL, it's late in the game and when the pitcher is up, just because they suck at hitting most of the time. The problem with smallball is that it's very ineffecient when it comes to scoring runs. Weaver's philosophy, and Moneyball's philosophy as well, is to score runs as effeciently as possible. Smallball - bunting, stealing, hitting to the right side, sac flies - is the most ineffecient way of scoring runs there is. However, it's generally a consistent way of scoring runs. The 3-run homer is effecient, but inconsistent. That's why having the ability to do both - not necessarily always executing smallball - is great for an offense. That's what Weaver did. Only do it when necessity calls.

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 07:47 PM) This just won't get it done. Put together the numbers and try to figure it out. Let's say 4.25 ERA is the necessary average for the rotation to reach the playoffs. Floyd - (extremely conservative here) 5.00ERA Buehrle - 4.25 ERA Contreras - 4.00 ERA Garland - 4.50 ERA Vazquez - 3.60 ERA The average of these numbers? 4.27. I didn't change Garland's because he is probably the least likely of the starters to drastically improve. Basically, we'll need Vazquez to throw a career season, Contreras and Buehrle to improve, and Floyd/Danks to produce an ERA around 5. It just doesn't seem very realistic when you put it all together. You can throw any name into any category, but the results remain similar -- the 5th starter must produce, two/three starters must show noticeable improvement, and someone needs a career year. I do believe, however, that the bullpen should be an improvement over last season. Offense may regress, though. It just seems realistic to me, unless we're reliving 2005, our win total will fall around 85 games. I actually got a different number from you for ERA, because you have to project IP as well. I used 220 for Buehrle, 210 for Vazquez, 200 for Contreras, 215 for Garland, and 180 from the 5th starter. My result was actually 4.26, so really there was no difference, just a different number. However, it's entirely possible that any of those top 4 could go over my projected numbers and still maintain such ERAs...Contreras likely won't, because the most innings he's ever thrown was 204 in 2005. However, Vazquez hit the 230 innings mark in 2002-03, and his mechanics and arm are such that he likely will never suffer a major injury. If he can just consistently get guys out, he may get there. Garland's also a possibility so long as he doesn't get torn apart early in the season like he did last year. He threw 220 in '05, and I could easily see him getting there or above as well. Buehrle's hard to predict right now, because he's coming off a horrendous half a season, and he's shown nothing really at all to suggest he'll be back to pre-ASB form to open the season. However, if he can just be consistent and pitch well, he could put up 230-240 innings for the Sox, and it's entirely plausible that he could go beyond that too. There are a few keys for all of the returning 4; Vazquez needs to stop blowing up in the 6th, Contreras needs to stay healthy, Garland needs to pitch well enough in the first 2 months to have a respectable ERA going into June, and Buehrle needs to just get back to pre-ASB 2006 form. If they can do that, I could easily see all 4 of those guys having ERAs right around 4. If that happens, the rotation will put up an ERA of right around 4.15-4.25, which is the target number. That's also not including the bullpen either, which I think will probably put up an ERA of right around 3.25 or so. Thornton seems like a prime candiate to break out and emerge as one of the league's best relievers statistically, MacDougal will be very good if he can stay healthy, Jenks has to maintain his velocity all year, and then the final 3 - whomever they may be - just need to be good, and that ERA should be right around the 3.00-3.50 range. What I expect this year is for everything to sort of even out. I expect the offense to regress slightly, so probably around 825 runs, the rotation to put up an ERA closer to 4.25 than 4.75, and the bullpen to be good up and down instead of just the late inning guys. I always have high expectations though, so it's completely understandable that these seem, on some scale, slightly unrealistic. That's fine, because if my scenario plays out, the team could 95-100 games. It's really hard to expect that.

God, corned beef might possibly be my death row meal too. My sister hates it too though, so I think it's a love/hate food. I'm not really sure there's a middle ground with it at all, because I don't think I've ever heard someone say it's just OK. shortly after this post, someone will say it's just OK. I can smell it coming

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 07:02 PM) Assuming there's a 4.25 ERA among the five, we're expecting every starter -- including the 5th starter, whom replaces Garcia -- to improve upon last years numbers. Or, for several starters to experience career seasons and the remaining pitchers to match last seasons performance. There are several other combinations, as well. Every one depends upon two/three starters remarkably improving and the others atleast standing pat. What also doesn't help our cause is the strength of the American League central, which makes sustaining a 4.25ERA seem ever less likely. I'm really growing more pessimistic about our chances to reach the playoffs every passing day. That's understandable, and I'm not nearly as optimistic at this time as I was last year. However, I do think all 4 of the returning starters will improve, and I think the bullpen will be very, very good, probably the 2nd best in the AL Central to Minnesota with potential to be the best in the majors. Right now, I'm actually not overly concerned with the pitching staff, crazy as it sounds. I just hope and pray Buehrle's velocity returns and he can start hitting his spots - a quality start or two would be nice to see in the first month. It would also be nice to see Garland start off the year well, because if he does, he'll have a great year. As I recall, it's always April and May that kill Garland. My real main fear is the consistency of the offense, and how it's going to shake out. The thought of Pods-Erstad at the top of the lineup just disgusts me, and it's mainly because of Pods. However, if those two can put up a combined OBP of even .330, the Sox offense will click.

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 06:44 PM) I honestly can't stand corned beef and cabbage. Worst part of St. Patricks day for me is waking up to the smell of my mom cooking it for her employees and relatives. And if that isn't bad enough, having to move past its left-over contents in the refrigerator is enough to vomit in rage. You, sir, must not be Irish in the least.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 06:52 PM) every single one of them except the for game two of the ALCS. And that ball was 5 feet from leaving the yard too

QUOTE(spiderman @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 06:29 PM) And is we have a 5th starter who sucks, does that cost us the division if we need 95 wins ? granted, the entire team put up a 3.61 ERA, but that's what the Sox had in 2005 too, and that didn't really stop them. If the offense is good enough - and it should be - the team should be good with a team ERA around 4.25, and probably good enough to win a lot of games.

And with Texas f'ing up, my 2nd Elite 8 team is gone.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 06:04 PM) Its not just his ERA. He's getting wins. He eats innings, and if catchers can't catch it, hitters can't hit it. Its better than watching Danks and Floyd pitch home run derby, which is probably going to happen if either one of them is in the rotation. Just because hitters can't hit it doesn't mean he's throwing strikes though either. Regardless of who the 5th starter is, there's going to be inconsistency throughout the year, be it Haeger, Danks, or Floyd.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 05:57 PM) Considering he is 28-11 the past 2 seasons in the minors, and was not too bad in the majors after his initial start (I'm sure nobody ever is nervous their first major league game) its unbelievable to me he's not the frontrunner for this job. It really should be his to lose. His ERA might not indicate it, but he could probably be just as bad or worse than Floyd or Danks. With Haeger, you can't just look at his ERA because of how many passed balls he has. Then again, I've never been a fan of knuckleball pitchers, so bias is also entering the picture.

QUOTE(BearSox @ Mar 18, 2007 -> 05:35 PM) It wasn't that he got figured out, he was just missing his locations and leaving his pitches up. He was still jamming hitters and making them look foolish on the changeup. so you're saying he looked like s*** towards the end? Missing spots and leaving pitches up is just as bad as having flat stuff or getting figured out, because all 3 result in the pitcher getting hit hard, and adjustments have to be made for all 3 of them for the pitcher to find success again.