Disco72

QUOTE (longshot7 @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 01:50 PM) My mother waited 90 minutes to vote early in Bolingbrook this morning. Is it just because they don't have enough poll workers to handle the early voters, or are there really that many new people voting? If it is anything like Atlanta, it isn't so much the volume of voters (though there are lots of people voting early), but it is moreso the fact that there are so few places to vote early.

QUOTE (kyyle23 @ Oct 25, 2008 -> 02:30 PM) I work at Chase in Credit Card fraud. fraudulent charges in the name of BOTH parties exist. We get them quite frequently Without giving away anything proprietary, can you clear up the "process" debate that is going on here? If these verification features are turned off by the merchant/campaign, are these "caught" by the merchant/campaign at some future time? If not, are they then caught by the credit card company at some future time? Or can these charges/contributions go through without "verification" if the cardholder wants them to?

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Oct 25, 2008 -> 11:14 AM) I haven't been this excited about an offseason since 2004 going into the 2005 season. Here are some really important dates: November 3-6. GM Meetings in Dana Point, California. This is where discussions begin to catch fire and a few moves can be already made. November 13th or 14th-. Free Agent filing period begins. December 8-11th- Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada I hope this helps everyone out. So the question is, does KW strike "early" on the trade market or wait until FA and the Winter Meetings? Given the makeup of the Sox, I think KW has to shed some salary to bring in a real difference maker (or at least make it salary neutral), so I'm thinking a pre-FA period deal. The Sox can add some salary this off-season, but with several needs, it pays to spread that available money out. What I can't decide is if this helps the Sox (more teams to trade with) or hurts the Sox (teams are less aggressive because the can always "wait" to sign available FAs in a few weeks).

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 04:44 PM) Javier Vazquez is not capable of filling CC/Sheets' void. If the Brewers think that he does, good luck. Good for us. You've got to get long-lasting quality for a young all-star SS. That's the direction I see the Brewers going. I don't see them making a rash move just fill a rotation spot. Getting 2-3 quality pitching prospects for Hardy could ultimately allow them to keep Prince long-term. Considering their system is lacking quality pitching prospects badly, I think it's the right move. I disagree with your value of Vazquez. Last year, the Sox traded a middle of the road starter for an all-star shortstop. It's obviously not a perfect comparison, but I think Vaz has a pretty good value. If he was a FA, he'd be getting a 5-6 year contract for at least what he's making now.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 10:21 AM) There really wasn't much evidence of this going in the primaries so I'm not sure it will happen on the 4th. My own personal opinion is that Obama's poll leads are big enough to account for any social desirability effect, but it will still be interesting to see what happens on election day. My prediction is a decent lead in the popular vote (over 50 but under 55%) but a pretty safe win in the electoral college. However, regarding the primaries vs. the general election on social desirability, there are some important reasons why it might not have been evident in the primaries but possibly evident in the general. The Democratic primaries had several important candidates that were minorities or women, whereas the general is obviously a much starker contrast between candidates and a much broader set of the population. (Edit: NSS beat me to it and said it in fewer words too!)

Margin of error does not always factor in all possible biases. The bias that TexSox is talking about is called Social Desirability. You'd be surprised what people "lie" about even in confidential surveys. I do research on businesses, particularly internationalization. People will lie on confidential surveys (not tied to their name or company) about their international experience, sales numbers, or any number of things that do not really matter that much. If people will "lie" about those issues, it is perfectly reasonable that there is a social desirability bias in the polls based on a much stronger issue.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 09:45 AM) That's a good point. I was refering to people just pointing at SBs and completely missing a guys SLG or OBP. Figgins is overrated, in my opinion, but he is valuable due to his OBP, AVE, and speed. I don't think he should be a "get at all costs" kind of guy, and I very much doubt the Angels would trade him for what I would give up for him.

QUOTE (Brian @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 05:42 PM) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yu_moia-oVI lol, only a matter of time before that showed up in this thread!

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 04:04 PM) A lot depends on what they do with Alexei, and if they move him to SS or not. Weeks is a guy who I think could blossom at CF with his plate discipline, although as disco said in another thread, the Sox need to go after guys who have good OBP skills, but also have a good BA e.g (no more Swisher's). The problem is, those guys aren't exactly available out there (except for Furcal and Hudson in FA, and they'll be expensive). There's always a scenario - let's say Swisher is part of a deal to get Roberts, and the Sox get Weeks to play CF. Weeks would be a solid late-in-the-order, no pressure while he tries to get back to his earlier success guy. I totally agree, it's easy to say "get high ave, high OBP" guys, but they aren't exactly sitting around and easy to get. Just wanted to clarify that I like your idea (especially looking at buy low candidates) but don't like the idea of both Weeks and Swish in the same lineup.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 12:24 PM) got a problem with that? Nope, just asking.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 12:20 AM) lots of 'em. cuz it's what i plan to do for a living. but usually country You plan to shower for a living?

About $2.89 in Atlanta...but we're just happy to have gas again! The shortage here was nuts!

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 03:57 PM) Here are Weeks' numbers over the past 3 seasons FWIW; 06 - .279/.363/.404 07 - .235/.374/.433 08 - .234/.342/.398 I think if he was available, the Sox should definitely have a look at him at least. I wouldn't play him at 2B though. QUOTE (beck72 @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 04:43 PM) Weeks would have to be able to play CF. I do like his batting eye. Yet I still would like someone who could play more than one OF spot, esp, if Dye is traded. Weeks' numbers seem very Swish-like, though Swish has the better slugging and Weeks can steal a few bases. I haven't seen Weeks play at all, but is he a better CFer than Swisher? Unless we unloaded Swisher in another deal, I don't want two guys with those stats on the team. I like the OBP, but the Sox need some hitters with higher average to go with the OBP. Swish: 2006 - .254/.372/.493 2007 - .262/.381/.455 2008 - .219/.332/.410

The Sox (and their fans) have the best Wood.

QUOTE (shipps @ Oct 21, 2008 -> 11:17 AM) Or your brother. Thankfully I'm a born and raised Chicagoan then!

Natural selection?

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Oct 21, 2008 -> 10:40 AM) So, after having my car totaled in a rear end collisiona little over a week ago, I got a new car. new being a relative term here. I bring it home Friday, and Saturday, take a drive up I-355 to go to K&G and get a suit. On the way, I missed having my second car totaled by about 1 foot. I really hate assholes who have no f***ingn clue how to merge, and assholes who follow way to close in traffic, especially construction traffic. I am in the right lane, and there is lots of space in front of me and the car ahead of me. As we approach the ramp merging on, i see a car coming down the ramp, at about the same speed as the car in front of me. Lots of room behind him, just like I left, so i figured the guy would slow down and slip right it. Um, no. Merging asshole never slows down, or speeds up, and at the last second just before turning into the lane, suddenly sees that there is a car there and slams on his brakes, causing him to miss that car, but slide to a stop right in front of me! So, I hit mine. I was slowing down as i saw all this happening, so I wasn't going too fast, but cvouldn't change lanes, I checked. As my car stops, I look in the mirror and see a car sideways, and hear the tires screechign on the road. Apparently the idiot behind me forgot what brake lights meant. His car managed to slide to the right of mine, missing me by a foot at best. So what happens? The jackass who started allthis by not watching what the f*** they were doing, and skidding to a stop half in an expressway lane, flips ME off, and drives away. And the asshole who almost hit me from behind ALSO flips me off, and drives away. I am the only one in this situation who paid attention and did whatever he could to avoid this crap, and these idiots flip me off. They are so lucky they drove away, or Alpha Dog would have really needed that appeal. Driving is like sex, everyone thinks they are the best but there are a lot of people that are horrible at it and never realize it.

2000 was more fun because it was unexpected. It was a young team making its first run. I remember going to a Monday night game against Cleveland after a great Sox road trip (they beat the Yankees among other teams) where there was a playoff atmosphere and energy at the park that had been missing for too long. The 2000 playoffs turned out badly, but there was a lot of hope on the horizon. In 2008, it seemed we kept waiting for the wheels to fall off. The end of the season turned out to be incredibly exciting with the Sox winning all of those "win or go home" games, but the regular season was more frustrating due to inconsistency and injuries. All in all, it's great to have enough division championships recently that we can debate which was better!

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 20, 2008 -> 03:18 AM) How come the Brewers can make a run at CC but we can't? Attendance has been great on the south side. Sox need to make a splash of some kind, folks. If we hadn't squeaked out Minnesota and won the division, people would be clamoring for a total rebuild. We'll see how much of a "run" they make. I would guess it'll be like the token offer the Sox gave Ventura so they can sell it to the fans that they "tried" but the player was just too greedy. I'll be shocked if CC stays in Milwaukee (and shocked if the Sox sign him).

I know very little about the movie other than seeing the previews. Who is the target audience? Bush-backers? Bush-haters? I still can't comprehend a movie about any president within 5-10 years of leaving office, let alone one still in office. I voted "won't see it" because I know the plot already...

I've been here (Atlanta) for just over 3 years. Like any big city, there is a ton of stuff to do. Buckhead is ok, but I prefer Midtown and the Virginia Highlands for bars and pubs. Buckhead is probably better for clubs (dance and strip). Places that I really like are the Vortex (one in Midtown, one at Little Five Points) for great burgers and a good beer selection, the SweetWater Brewery for a fun tour and some good local brews, Blind Willy's in the Highlands for blues, and the Fado in Buckhead (brand new building with a great rooftop deck). If you want more specific advice, either post some of your interests or PM me.

Danks - he's a young pitcher coming off a very good year in which he pitched both too many innings and a lot of high stress innings. He may improve as a pitcher next year (continue making adjustments, working/perfecting pitches), but I'm very worried about his workload this year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 4, 2008 -> 05:57 PM) I think we would be fine with CoCo Crisp leading off. I think he would really take off again if playing in the AL Central again. And it strikes me as the most typical KW move, not very splashy, but solid, and logical the more one chews it over. I'm also thinking that Crisp/Ramirez or even Ramirez/Crisp would be a much better way to spark the top of the line-up than what we presently have. A lot of this depends on Ramirez becoming a bit more patient and raising his walk totals/OBP. BUT, he has all the tools as a hitter for the position. He's a very smart baseball player, has lightning quick hands, I think he could make the adjustment...he certainly can bunt as well as any player on the team and he's usually pretty good at execution. I have a lot more faith in him at 1/2 than Uribe or Brian Anderson, FWIW. I wouldn't hate Crisp. He's had another season to prove that he can perform at a .344ish OBP, and the price would likely be much lower than Roberts as Ellsbury seems to have solidified his hold on CF. Sadly, Crisp's .344 OBP would have been tied for 4th best (with Paulie and JD) on the Pale Hose this year behind TCQ, Thome, and Griffey Jr. He provides a bit more speed on the basepaths than OCab. I agree completely on Uribe and Brian Anderson. Include Wise in that as guys that have no business at the top of the order. For those advocating getting rid of Thome, he's the only left handed power bat the Sox have, and he has very good numbers of the course of a season. There's no way you let him go. It has to be one of Dye/Paulie/Swish that goes unless you can find a LH power bat in FA at a position of need.... and good luck wtih that at SS, 2B, or CF! For the record, I think Swish rebounds next year, but any chance the Orioles would be interested in him as the centerpiece of a Roberts deal? Jones and Markakis have earned their spots, and people seem to like Luke Scott, who wasn't bad this year (.807 OPS). Millar was pretty bad in 2008, so Swish could be an upgrade there. I believe the only other 1B on their 40-man is journeyman minor leaguer Oscar Salazar. (Oh, and thanks for the compliment Tony)

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 4, 2008 -> 12:39 PM) I'd like to see him go out and get more than $11.5 million from someone...at any rate, the Brewers are a "small market" team trading a young/affordable player for a very expensive (by their standards) one. If they get swept out the the playoffs and lose Sabathia and Sheets, would they want to add someone like Javier? I just don't know. Normally it's not good to trade position players for starting pitchers (as pitchers are, as a rule, more valuable), but I wouldn't mind this one at all. I just think Javier needs another change of scenery, we'd have an everyday SS again and we'd have basically the money saved on Vazquez to invest in another starting pitcher who more than likely (going by KW's track record with acquiring talent outside the draft) have a much bigger impact than Vazquez has on the South Side. You make some good points, but with Hardy as the SS, Alexei would be at 2B. Where does our OBP at leadoff come from? That would leave only CF or 3B with the roster as presently constructed. I don't see any legit options in FA, so the Sox would have to trade using our logjam in OF/1B/DH as the bait. I'm not against the move, I'm just not sure if it is the "best" move KW could make. The only FAs that really fit the leadoff bill are Furcal (definitely) and Hudson (a little better than OC but still not "typical" at leadoff). As much as we, as Sox fans, want him gone, Javy is probably the best trading chip the Sox have, especially on a FA pitching market that gets thin after CC. Javy is guaranteed production - you know what you are going to get. He'd be an ideal #2 or #3 for a lot of NLC or NLE teams. I'm not defending Javy - I wrote a 3 page email to my Sox fan friends outlining why I want him voted off Sox island this winter, but I do want to see KW get appropriate value for him in a way that really helps the Sox.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 4, 2008 -> 04:58 AM) I'm onboard with getting Hardy, but it's definitely not going to be straight-up for Vazquez. We'd have to include something else (but not Poreda) to sweeten the pot. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Weeks...I could see something like the old "change of scenery" trade with Vazquez and Weeks switching teams, and the White Sox possibly subsidizing a small part of his salary, like the D-Backs did when they traded us Vazquez. Traditionally, this hasn't been the way KW and JR operate, but I think they might have to consider it in order to offload Vazquez's contract on someone. As we've seen with Floyd and Quentin, one "off season" or a confused season (mentally) or injuries can be overcome...if only the right, supportive environment is there to nurture them back to confidence in their abilities. While the last month has made all of us sour on Vazquez, I think his trade value is lower than when the Sox traded for him but not so low that the Sox couldn't get Hardy for him without throwing something extra in. Hardy is a very good player, but he's not great. His power is nice (20+ HRs), but his OBP (career .329, .343 in 2008) isn't anything to write home about. He wouldn't solve the "speed" and "OBP" issue, though he is a nice player. Vazquez is still a workhorse (200+ innings) at a league-average (probably better in the NL) ERA.