caulfield12

"There’s obvious risk in this profile. Miguel Sano jumps to mind as a faux third baseman with 80 power who could never make enough contact to stick even as a first baseman. On the flip side of the coin, there are scenarios where Murakami is effectively a lite version of Kyle Schwarber’s skill set — but eight years younger with more defensive value as a competent first baseman. The range of outcomes is all over the place on Murakami, but the upside here is tantalizing enough that we’re predicting a huge investment — likely one with opt-outs along the way. There will be a sizable cost on top of the contract guaranteed to Murakami himself. The signing club would owe a posting fee to the Swallows that is proportional to the size of the contract: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending thereafter. A $180MM contract would come with a posting fee just shy of $29MM. It’s worth noting that the posting fee is not part of a team’s competitive balance tax calculation." 8/$180 million + $29 million posting fee Sure, why not a $209 million investment???

"San Diego Padres explore sale of team two years after owner Seidler's death. LAS VEGAS — The San Diego Padres, who are about $300 million in debt, are exploring the possibility of selling the franchise, the team announced Thursday at the end of the GM Meetings." Go look at the Forbes team valuations in 2006 and compare to 2025. https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2006/04/21/The-Back-Of-The-Book/Forbes-Releases-MLB-Franchise-Valuations-Yankees-Top-$1B/ The franchise values have BOTH increased to roughly $1.8 billion...but SD has been one of the most entertaining teams since 2019 and a constant Top 5 attendance presence. 4/6 playoffs made, etc. Four playoff series victories. Knocked off Dodgers in 2022. SD is just over luxury tax threshold 2025. $4-5 million in luxury tax. Also just added almost $90 million in new contracts this week. Darvish Bogaerts Cronenworth Merrill Musgrove Tatis Machado all over $100 million...Tatis/Machado $330ish. Added Pivetta $55 million last off season. King @ $75 million. Two very distinct ways to run a team, but ending up in the same franchise valuations despite one being decidedly small market. The only difference is $150 million in debt. But still $200 million less debt than the Twins.

The problem is can anyone be sure about Tucker for $300-425 million? Those sure things like a Tyler Glasnow or Dylan Cease have even more risk attached at peak FA rates. Same with Valdez and Imai, for that matter. Would anyone be really excited about Bellinger, for that matter? Enough to go out and buy a new jersey? You need the type of players little kids dream about being (see PCA). That's also part of the inherent responsibility of owners in the entertainment business.

Tier B is where the White Sox have committed almost all of their big FA mistakes.

WestEddy named as Getz lieutenant?

And Okamoto would be 30-31, then 32-33 in the years they most needed him to perform. Equally risky, albeit maybe 60% of the financial commitment of Murakami.

Shock the world...you've got Darvsh rehabbing, new Korean infielder and Matsui, Japanese reliever to sell SD. That would also put them in play for Imai...who seemed headed for AL/NL East or SFG. Also, Sasaki had them second, Toronto third.

Two Ivy Leaguers...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/nine-teams-exceeded-luxury-tax-threshold-in-2025.html https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47360963/dodgers-hit-record-169m-luxury-tax-winning-2nd-straight-ws

https://www.draysbay.com/2025/1/16/24345209/rays-2025-international-prospects-signing-tracker Most interesting note here is that the Rays have/had significant interest in Roki Sasaki and a good relationship with his agent. Went through their full $7.5 million 2025 international signing pool in less than 24 hours. An actual seat at the table...?

#2 prospect/SS/$3.6 million bonus Wandy Asigen Because the Yankees don't have a long term Directir of Intl Scouting hired yet and prospects are being convinced their deals with NY might fall through...so going for sure things. 2026 international signing period preview Big prospects set to sign with the: - Giants - Royals - Athletics - Rays - Orioles - Tigers - Twins And more. International Bonus Board with scouting reports and the team for each player: https://baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-international-prospects-bonus-board/… Need a BA subscription here.

Ace/RBI programs ... Bulls/Sox academy, etc. How many times was Christine O'Reilly on with Hawk Harrelson touring one of their charitable drives? Or Michael Milken with Farmer/DJ?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/munetaka-murakami-landing-spots-prediction-npb-roundtable/ Bunch of names mentioned for Murakami...Mariners perhaps the most obvious. One of the pundits hit the Lowe deal right on the head. Marlins Mariners Pirates Reds Red Sox https://www.bucsdugout.com/pirates-rumors/47297/pittsburgh-pirates-looking-to-sign-top-japanese-talent&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjfref9s8qRAxXjnCYFHUoWJTsQFnoECAUQAg&usg=AOvVaw2BeWLY-Hse9Lzfh93ET2m- "Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that Pittsburgh along with Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle, Toronto and Detroit have all showed interest in signing Murakami..." Please don't be Detroit. Kerry Carpenter's already enough of a pain to deal with. Fallback option on losing Bregman again?

Orioles just love taking on pitcher with extremely elevated injury concerns.

Jake (not Josh) Paul?

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/articles/chiefs-expected-announce-move-missouri-214559268.html Chiefs getting closer to Kansas move...Royals still uncommitted

"San Diego’s projected payroll climbs to $218MM, as calculated by RosterResource. The backloaded nature doesn’t change the $25MM AAV used for luxury tax purposes. They’re up to a projected $259MM in tax commitments. They’ll exceed the $244MM base threshold for the second straight season. Repeat payors are taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. Re-signing King costs around $4.5MM in taxes. The more significant development is that it moves them closer to the $264MM second tier, at which the rate climbs to 42%." mlbtr

Unless you choose to believe the O'Hearn stuff. But he's almost exclusively LF DH 1B and not RF.

If Keller and Weaver are both worth $22 million...it's not like Keller even had a solid background performance-wise until more recently. Ofc, same exact amount that Adrian Houser got after being basically dead in the water prior to 2025.

No way Braden doesn't get held back until the cut off date....that would be malpractice considering his lack of playing time at AA/AAA.

How does that make sense when the report earlier today or yesterday was that the Marlins were offering mid teens for one year? Someone's way off in their reporting.

"The Padres are in agreement with Michael King on a three-year contract, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal includes opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. It’s a $75MM guarantee, Feinsand adds. King receives a $12MM signing bonus and a $5MM salary for the 2026 season. He’ll decide on a $28MM player option or $5MM buyout next winter and would have a $30MM player option for 2028 if he doesn’t opt out." mlbtraderumors Talk about creative book-keeping here. $28 and $30 million deals might kill the Padres in 2027-28.

Odunze and Burden both ruled out.

https://yanksgoyard.com/yankees-international-prospect-crisis-just-took-a-brutal-turn-if-rumors-are-true Sounds like Yankees intl. scouting shop was a complete mess. Rodriguez chose the relative sanity/stability of the White Sox (until at least 2029.) https://risingapple.com/ny-mets-humiliate-yankees-shoplift-top-international-prospect-wandy-asigen&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwip2KyQz8iRAxVrDzQIHXgjJBoQFnoECAcQAg&usg=AOvVaw34QRKdblOLfDFyUiSR727I "At 16, it’s ridiculously premature to declare this a major victory for the Mets as easily as it is an embarrassment for the Yankees. Any other team losing the second ranked international prospect to the Mets wouldn’t be as much of a story. Going to the Mets, a day after Luke Weaver, to a team that has already stacked itself with ex-Yankees players and coaches, makes it a twist a uniquely Big Apple story at the moment " Fwiw, Mets' last big intl. success was SS Jose Reyes ages ago...1999 signing.

Jul 11, 2021 · "So Rays scout Mario Gonzalez, father of Red Sox multi-positional player Marwin Gonzalez, signed Márquez for $200,000. Days later, the Rockies ..." Nope. But had to have been aware, peripherally involved.