caulfield12

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/us/stacey-abrams-georgia-voter-suppression-trnd/index.html

Cotton has already been cast out of the group, seemingly...but then there’s always Pompeo, Rubio, Cruz and Pence vying for those same voters in 2024, assuming Trump is done. IMO, Ivanka would be better off running for an office in Florida to start out with, but how much of the MAGA crowd would automatically except her? Don, Jr., Eric and Lara, no way. Stephanie Guilfoyle will go down as one of the Top Ten reasons for Trump losing this year, so she gets crossed off as well. (Plus, Trump will do something idiotic like try to “pre-pardon” all of his family members over the next two weeks.) Nikki Haley or Paul Ryan seem so obvious they’ll probably figure out some new way to screw things up. And of course, you have Hogan/Baker/DeWine as anti-Trumpers.

The obvious thing for Abrams to do is take on Kemp again, except there’s a good chance he doesn’t even get the nomination. Then again, for some reason, he has 60% approval in terms of Covid response so who knows. Would like to see her get years of experience in Washington but she’s done so well in organizing GA the last two years that another run seems almost inevitable. She’s certainly not likely to run against Warnock for the former Isakson seat. (Thought this was interesting....”When compared to his Republican peers in the Senate, Isakson was neither more liberal than average nor more conservative than average. Won with 54.6% in 2016.)

At the same precinct, Jim Earwood, a 67-year-old retiree, said he appreciated Trump’s ceaseless commentary on the Georgia election, from his early and uncorroborated claims of fraud to his weekend call to the secretary of state. “I’m glad he’s involved,” Earwood said. “Everybody says he’s not presidential, and that’s what I like about him.” As he left the Christian church that served as a polling place, Earwood said he voted all Republican. “I wouldn’t vote for a Dem here lately unless they let Jesus on the ticket,” he said. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/perdue-ossoff-loeffler-warnock-georgia-senate/2021/01/05/7d7b5afe-4f5d-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html

Fulton and DeKalb still have 23,000 to go... Black voters again comprised 29% of the electorate, almost exactly approximating their turnout in November, which is frankly unheard of for a January runoff. And it's not just that. Ossoff was beating Perdue 93% to 7% among Black voters, nearly a double-digit improvement on Biden's performance. What explains the Black turnout? One factor may well be Rev. Raphael Warnock's candidacy. Warnock, the head of Ebenezer Baptist Church, took considerable incoming from Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) during the runoff for his ties to the Black church community -- including controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. It's uniquely possible those attacks backfired on Loeffler (and Perdue) -- serving as an impetus for the Black community to turn out in droves to vote for the two Democrats. Trump won suburban Georgia voters by 3 points in November; Perdue is ahead of Ossoff by just 2 points. And perhaps as importantly, suburban voters turned out in similar numbers in the Senate runoffs as they did in the November general election. In November, suburbanites were 61% of the overall electorate, while on Tuesday they were also 61%. Assuming those numbers hold, it suggests that Trump has done damage to the Republican brand among suburban voters that goes well beyond just races where he is on the ballot. And extrapolating further, if the suburbs are now a pure toss-up across the country, that would be, generally speaking, scary news for Republicans. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/politics/georgia-senate-runoff-elections/index.html

NY Times meter has it ending at 1.9% for Warnock and 1.1% for Ossoff. How much does this impact Trump negatively...at least in terms of GOP electoral politics? Obviously, he's not going to take/assume/accept any responsibility for the loss, but it's hard to imagine him not being in the Top 3 reasons. If for no other reason than the $200 million he's soaked up after the election. With all the soft money flying into this, it seems the Dem advantage wasn't as pronounced in the end, but the GOP could have had a significant spending margin on advertising if they'd not gotten sidetracked. Quite a few unforced errors by both sides. For Dems, Antifa, defund the police, identity politics, embrace of "socialism" (or not differentiating enough from democratic socialism of the AOC/Squad variety) and Bernie's comments on socialism/Castro/Cuba... For the GOP, there are too many to name, but going to war with the governor of the state as well as the Secretary of State where you're trying to win two runoff elections doesn't seem to be the wisest election strategy.

https://www.ajc.com/news/distrust-and-worry-help-fuel-voter-turnout-in-east-georgia/MG5BAVXYUZEG5BDLOC6LRPFI4Q/

One thing is for sure, if both GOPers are ahead before everyone goes to bed and then they later are “caught” by absentee ballot counting (going 4-5/1 ratio for Dems), it’s just going to continue to reinforce that stolen election storyline. Or that the Dems won by promising $2000 check socialism/giveaways (what will be later conveniently forgotten is that it’s Trump’s exact same position.) 3D or 5D chess, amirite? Trump actually prefers Dem “control” of both houses to give him even more grounds to later assail it in 2022/24?

According to RCP, Warnock and Ossoff were up 1.3% and 1% so no idea what to expect. Split decision? Loeffler is clearly the worst of the two in terms of obedience to Trump...and her stock trading was even more unseemly, not to mention her inability to get along with her own WNBA team.

Somehow I doubt the dramatic twists could equal Tiger King... but real life is often stranger than fiction, right?

Well, he could be the first big leaguer in history with that particular spelling of his first name.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/a-year-without-fandom-why-these-baseball-fans-stopped-watching-in-2020-and-how-mlb-can-win-them-back-211618097.html

They were supposed to have 300k contact tracers at this point, but still only have around 70,000. Giving credit for the vaccine but not developing the distribution system is beside the point. You can’t just keep blaming state and local issues when an unprecedented situation calling for Federal intervention arises. Plus, hacks like Redfield and Jared Kushner were right in the middle of all this every step of the way. Finally, Dr. Birx allowed herself to be used as the public face of this, as well...and look where she is now.

Federal officials said as recently as earlier in December that their goal was to have 20 million people get their first shot by the end of 2020. More than 14 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had been sent out across the United States, federal officials said Wednesday. But, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, just 2.8 million people have received their first dose, although that number may be somewhat low because of lags in reporting. States vary widely in how many of the doses they have received have been given out. South Dakota leads the country with more than 48% of its doses given, followed by West Virginia at 38%. By contrast, Kansas has given out less than 11%, and Georgia, less than 14%. Compounding the challenges, federal officials say they do not fully understand the cause of the delays. But state health officials and hospital leaders throughout the country pointed to several factors. States have held back doses to be given out to their nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities, an effort that is just gearing up and expected to take several months. Across the country, just 8% of the doses distributed for use in these facilities have been administered, with 2 million yet to be given. https://www.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-distribution-vaccine-taking-134801580.html

Also importantly, Caratini has a great partnership with Darvish and in the 98th percentile for framing. SD has undertaken a big change from Hedges/Mejia to Nola/Caratini, and it has made their offense even tougher...where there are no longer any easy sections of the lineup to negotiate. In the end, though, starting pitching is the one area that takes on outsized importance in the playoffs. If you look at variability in that rotation, Paddack with much less pressure on his shoulders could easily take another step forward. When you can roll out the best starting pitching prospect in Gore at #5, you’re in pretty good position. They have five starters along with Clevinger capable of finishing Top 5-10 in NL Cy Young balloting over the next 2-3 years. That’s not even considering Morejon and Weathers.

You mean 4, if you include Clevinger...

It’s risky for Hoyer in the sense that Cubs’ fans are likely going to get very impatient when they’re a Top 3-5 MLB franchise but are acting like the TB Rays. Especially whenever they look at their Marquee charges to bills or attempt to purchase anything in the neighborhood outside the ballpark. But the curious thing is the second biggest issue with Epstein for the latter half of his Cubs’ career (after bad free agent deals) was the almost complete inability to develop their own pitching. Davies will likely be gone by August. Why not address THAT? Because fixating on position players alone has proven to be a mistake in hindsight. If you trade Bryant/Baez/Contreras and then Kimbrel for half his salary...that leaves fans with just Rizzo and Hendricks to cheer for. Which won’t be easy for any Cubs’ fan who revisits the feeling around the franchise four or five years ago to digest. Arguably, Darvish, Contreras (two years left on contract), Hendricks and Bryant/Baez in walk years should be comparable pieces to what the Sox auctioned off in their rebuild. Early returns though, suggest the very worst possible timing in history to be doing such a thing.

"Payrolls are for 40-man rosters and include averages of multiyear contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman's compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships." How one calculates all of these extra factors is the key...usually, it’s at least $12-15 million higher. The owners, obviously, would prefer to use these numbers than just the salaries alone because it’s simply PR/perception...but you wouldn’t find a single baseball fan 15-20 years ago thinking about such things, other than do we have enough money to sign XYZ player or not.

It’s obviously not second degree murder, but how can someone who deliberately does such a thing not at least get 30-90 days in jail? And how long until other enflamed anti-vaxxers come up with similar copycat sabotage efforts?

Plus they need to start seriously considering the cost/benefit of a Giolito extension. Of course, if he repeats 2019/20, then you have to think Reinsdorf would definitely hesitate on giving out $100+ million extension to a pitcher with a TJ surgery is his past. The Danks extension would be used as the excuse as well. 4-6 year contracts for Sox pitchers...we’ll believe it when we see it with our own eyes. And you’d have to think Giolito was paying close attention to the Wheeler deal...even if those market conditions no longer apply.

Kopech + ? Vaughn isn’t going to the Cubs unless they are planning to part with Rizzo or the NL goes to the DH. Crochet has more value to the White Sox that he offers the Cubs. Which leaves the package short unless they’re willing to empty out the entire next tier of pitching prospects. Collins, Sheets and all our minor league outfielders have negligible value, but let’s just say Adolfo for argument’s sake. Leaving you Kopech, Stiever/Thompson/Kelley/Dahlquist (pick 3) and a lottery ticket in Adolfo. Hahn simply can’t afford to give up that much young pitching in one trade if he doesn’t have the budget to go shopping on the open market.

By the way, the Padres despite having the a bottom five MLB local media market...are projected to run out a $162 million payroll in another pandemic interrupted season if they don’t make any more major moves. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/ Just once, can the White Sox even make it to $140 in 2021 or 2022?

There really isn't one that doesn't include Kopech/Vaughn. Vaughn would be blocked by any future deal for Rizzo...same reason they (well, also depends on fate of the DH in NL.) Maybe he does make sense if they're completely cleaning house and Baez/Contreras/Bryant are all sent packing, but it's hard to imagine letting fan favorite Rizzo go, too? Madrigal would have been superfluous with Hoerner/Happ. They would basically have to completely empty the shelves of Tier B/C lower-level pitching prospects along with one headliner. Crochet, obviously, would have been interesting to them as well, especially if they can dump Kimbrel (but also as a potential starter.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/giroir-better-job-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-cnntv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/us/florida-coronavirus-vaccine-line/index.html The first time I can remember someone from the Trump administration admitting they need to be doing a better job...of course, they come from a military and not civilian background, so not 100% shocking. "Although I'm grateful to get the vaccine, I feel that there's got to be a better way to distribute this," he said afterward. "For people that really need it, elderly that might be disabled in some way, they can't endure this process, so there's got to be a better way to manage this." The long wait is a preview of what looks to be a tumultuous vaccine rollout and reflects the public's pent-up demand for vaccines as well as the logistical difficulty in administering them in an orderly way. The issue is partly a consequence of the lack of consistent federal guidance in administering vaccines, as President Donald Trump deferred that decision-making to the states. In turn, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis broke with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to focus first on vaccinating the elderly rather than essential workers, and he has encouraged each county health department to make its own decisions on administering the vaccines. But the Florida situation is a perfect example of what NOT to do, which is making the elderly camp out or wait in lines of up to 8-9 hours. Imagine if you live in the NE, Rust Belt, Rockies, etc. They could literally be killing off old people due to exposure...ironically, while waiting in lines to get a vaccine to save themselves, the fighting over the vaccine itself might turn out to be even more dangerous than the virus.