caulfield12

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 14, 2016 -> 07:41 AM) It doesn't matter. If a guy puts up 1 WAR in 10 games and then plays at replacement level the rest of the year he still puts up 1 WAR for the season. We're 85+ games into the season and there are 87 MLB outfielders that have put up a higher WAR than Puig. Somehow you want to rank Puig higher because it took him more at bats to be as productive as somebody who only plays part time? There is no justification that you can give that will say Puig has been a good player this year. And yet you want to give up resources for a basically replacement level player who is owed another $20 million over the next couple years and is a head case? And your ESPN comment is one of the funnier things I've ever read on here. If that proprietary statistical information is so valuable, then why wouldn't ESPN or another sports information outlet like The Sporting News simply buy it and make it their own? Defense has evolved from Total Chances to Range Factor/UZR to Defensive Runs Saved...but each have their pluses and minuses. But to say DRS is the be-all and end-all is like saying Pythagorean is the best way to assess a manager's effectiveness or competency. To totally discount another way of counting WAR doesn't make any sense when there's no more than 10-15 people at this entire site that could clearly and concisely tell the different between the two in five minutes or less to a "layman" or average baseball fan. ESPN has improved greatly in terms of delivering statistical information, compared to where they were even 5 or 10 years ago. If you took a poll and asked how many SoxTalk posters utilize FanGraphs at least once a week during the baseball season, or Baseball Prospectus, it's not going to be an extremely high number. Having ESPN's numbers more readily and easily accessible and available to the average fan makes "regular" baseball discussions more well-informed, so I'm not going to completely discount one version of WAR. Everyone is free to keep making the same arguments about which statistic is better, for example, FIP, xFIP, Siera, DIP, pFIP, etc., it's getting to be overwhelming trying to sort through all of it. And it creates more fans who are making authoritative statements who haven't even watched the player in question even play a single game.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 14, 2016 -> 06:58 AM) 1. I think many here will take you more seriously if you start using fWAR instead of rWAR as most consider it superior. 2. Why do you always say things like "that would place him 34th out of 53 in the category (qualified number of AB's)? WAR is essentially a counting stat. A player who has .6 fWAR across 150 PAs is more valuable than a player with .5 across 300. You can't discount him because he doesn't qualify for whatever arbitrary minimum number of PAs you choose. That would be like stripping the guy of a home run crown because he didn't have 500 PAs. 3. Using the superior fWAR and ignoring a minimum number of PAs, Puig has a fWAR of .3 (roughly .5 to .6 over the full year). That ranks him 88th among all outfielders. That is pathetic. Saladino has put up a .2 fWAR is well less than half the number of PAs. If it's that simple, why does ESPN, who is supposed to be the foremost authority on sports news and information...choose not to use it? Why would they deliberately want to be wrong if it's in their best interest to use the best statistics? It wouldn't cost them more money to use a different version of WAR, would it? With the knowledgeable baseball guys over there like Law, Callis, Stark, Schoenfield...what's the reason? Has anyone ever asked that question? And because simply having a higher WAR in a limited number of at-bats doesn't automatically mean it could be extrapolated out over a full season for a bench player. If that was the case, the Reds would take Saladino for Bruce, the Dodgers Saladino for Puig? And yet we know both of those trades are pretty much unrealistic...right? Or even for Beltran to rent him for 2-3 months, or Josh Reddick. There are MANY players who wouldn't stand up over the test of full-time play, but their abilities can be maximized as part-time or bench players. Regardless of what version of WAR you use, it's just ONE snapshot...one of hundreds of statistics you could look at, when assessing a position player. One thing that's clear statistically is that Puig's defense has improved pretty dramatically compared to years past. But hey...if the White Sox want to go down with the Avi Garcia Ship, more power to them. I'd hate to see how he grades out about right now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/trad...pitchers-4.html Trade market for starting pitchers http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/catc...market-mlb.html Trade market for catchers http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/mets...rade-talks.html Looking at the price tags on some of the relievers the Mets are looking at, it's easy to see the White Sox sitting it out and hoping for help to come from within...

The Dodgers are asking for something that will help their major league team right now...same thing with the Braves listening on offers for Teheran and Vizcaino. That's almost an impossible move to make for the Sox, considering the Dodgers' biggest need is in the pitching area. They'd have zero interest in Avi Garcia or Carlos Sanchez, for example. Not a good match.

http://www.milb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=201...sp&sid=milb Toolshed: Midseason MiLBY Awards Unfortunately, Cleveland was listed as best farm system. Brady Aiken's finally back in action as well.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...tching/2016/ALL This is one of the two pitchers the White Sox gave up (for Lawrie)...the other is JB Wendelken, part of the original package for Jake Peavy (Garcia/Montas/C.Rondon/Wendelken). http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...tching/2016/ALL Wendelken has pretty pedestrian stats in AAA, and apparently was around for a couple of pretty bad relief performances on the big league club before going back down. We're not going to get much back for Lawrie, in other words. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a contender that desperately needs a 2B or 3B. Maybe he would be a bench or platoon guy. Actually, you could make an argument he would be better at 3B for the Indians than Uribe, but that's not a likely trade to occur within the division. So your belief is that Saladino's going to be a better 2B than Lawrie and play so well defensively that a slight falloff in offense from Lawrie's OPS output in 2016 will basically equal out over everyday playing time for Saladino?

Eminor: That's all find and good, but you need to calculate the risks of holding onto those assets too long and not getting anything back for them. The "plan" is built on the thinnest of margins. An injury to Frazier, Anderson, Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera...but especially one of the Big 3 pitchers...leaves the organization fairly crippled. At this point, there's definitely a LOT to be said for trading one of those three pitchers (and likely it would have to be Sale or Q) and using that deal to fortify the offense in 2-3 places that they wouldn't be able to afford doing it via free agency next offseason (not to mention the fact they're not going to turn around and surrender a first round draft pick). What is another practical or realistic way this team can truly be competitive in 2017? Right now, 2017 success is predicated on a BUNCH of things happening, like Fulmer/Burdi/Collins and maybe Hansen moving up at lightning speed to the big league club and producing almost instantaneously (or at least by the second half of the season). Remember when Balta said over and over again they can't afford to break in more than one rookie or so at a time (and it's Tim Anderson now, last year it was Rodon, etc.)??? You're asking for a lot from all those young prospects. In the end, trading Q in the next 9 months and Robertson this trade deadline for a young hitter coming back are the best ways to 1) inject more young hitting talent into the system, and 2) clear some more payroll space that will POSSIBLY allow them to sign ONE of their free agent targets (let's say Wieters/Ramos, but more likely Rasmus/Gomez and perhaps Fowler for CF). Once again, you're left picking and choosing from lots of second and third tier options if you limit yourself to only players who won't cost a 1st round draft pick.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 07:46 PM) Struggles with addiction have absolutely nothing to do with being unintelligent. In fact, the same centers of the brain involved in the addictive process prior to relapse are the same exact locations accessed by top level executives in the business world. Try again. http://www.cracked.com/article_19174_5-une...ligence_p5.html It's the Amy Winehouse stereotype...in her own right, maybe not traditional IQ but EQ and song writing/creativity-wise, she was quite brilliant and obviously misunderstood by most.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 07:46 PM) Soxtalk is a no fun zone for sure. And Caulfield, nobody should ever leave their house, just sit on the couch until you play baseball. And even then getting to the stadium is pretty risky. Maybe just pitch and stay in the stadium until your next start, don't want anyone getting hurt. I'm not as concerned with what Lawrie does, it's Sale and Rodon mostly. Quintana seems like the kind of person off the field who would never do anything wrong or get into any trouble, similar to Abreu. And didn't John Danks have a huge problem at his house with people horsing around and someone got hurt? As an MLB player, you're always going to be held to a higher standard. Heck, the White Sox put a clause into his contract that Rowand couldn't drive a motorcycle or go off-roading from what I recall.

There's always a fine line....remember Buehrle and his completely harmless tarp-sliding gag or routine? Eventually that was killed off when you have an asset worth millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars in today's game. Common sense should prevail. We've seen the Chris Sale "truck unloading injury" and tons that were even more bizarre in the last 3-5 years.

That's with Everett. To be expected for a collegiate player. When he starts tearing up High A, that's when you can really start to get excited (about him). And if you look at some of the struggles that (for example) Nick Gordon and Daz Cameron have gone through, it's not a wonder many teams pass on the high school talent. Another example, Kyle Tucker's holding his own but not hitting for any power in the Quad Cities...hoping to see him play in person next week.

The next Rowand (not that he's in the same class as a Sox player at all)...just reckless nature. Adrenalin junkie.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/politics/qui...rida/index.html HOW CAN GREG NOT BE ALL OVER THIS ONE?

It's a conspiracy. Of course. How could it not be? Cueto took a big payoff to groove those two pitches to Hosmer and Perez to make up for now badly he pitched in August and September last year. Also surprised the Cubs haven't already offered the Padres big bucks to turn that seat where Bryant's homer against Sale landed in LF into a permanent exhibit about his greatness, with the seat changed to Cubbie Blue and Bryant's uniform number and autograph on it.

I would be VERY surprised by that...but you're welcome to poll them if you'd like. Mine aren't even for baseball, football or basketball, they're for soccer and cross-country (and would have been volleyball if they actually had men's teams in Iowa in the 1980's).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 05:00 PM) Actually, I just assumed you folks were correct when you said 15% and didn't double check that, only last year's numbers. The current White Sox playoff odds from the same calculator are 8.4%. So you're right, things are improving - from 7.9% to 8.4% chance. At this rate of improvement we'll have a better than 50/50 shot at the all star break when baseball is played by cyborgs. But those cyborgs will be truly awesome. That's a 6.3% improvement!!! How does that NOT convince fans to come out the second half of the season? Cyborg Konerko will still turn on the fastball, grip it and rip it or dye trying!!!

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos...qualified/false No, it was for all MLB outfielders, not just AL. It's pretty much impossible to do a stats screen for Puig and not have NL teams come up with him. For some reason, the post/s disappeared. Probably because if we want to start a back and forth about everyone's past assessments on players, the Gordon Beckham 2008-09 time period would be a good one and everyone could be made to look foolish without much difficulty. Even MLB GM's can often fall into that category with their "overpraise" of new acquisitions to sell them to the fanbase. If anyone on this site (including the mods) can be correct on their talent assessments more than 50% of the time, they probably should be working in an MLB front office or on Wall Street in analysis/forecasting.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 04:13 PM) Hmmm, not sure that has anything to do with you polishing his hall of fame statue every day when he came up. Nor does it have anything to do with you declaring he was the best centerfielder in the league despite him playing the position like 3 times that season Well, not every prediction is going to be right...and just because a player has all the tools in the world doesn't mean they're going to take advantage of them. I remember back in 1985, I must have bought 100 Eric Davis rookie cards thinking he was going to be the next Mays/Mantle. Didn't happen. By WAR, Puig's at 1.0 (and looking at around 1.5-2.5 for a full season assuming he stays healthy and continues his recent improved play). That would place him 34th out of 53 in the category (qualified number of AB's). Not nearly up to the standards of his first two seasons, but if a bunch of "Avi Garcia could do that in his sleep in RF" posts come up, it will be pretty amusing. In the context of AL MLB outfielders, 48th-51st out of 197 total players. So, if that's not a starting outfielder, I'm not sure what is.

Cespedes right now is projected as the only $100 million contract, assuming he doesn't go back for one of those "year at a time" deals. It's pretty hard to imagine Bautista or Encarnacion at their respective ages getting that type of money. $60-75 million would seemingly be about the max, like Zobrist last off-season. Then, when you consider losing a 1st round draft pick as well...just don't see many of these players being good matches when you consider the overpay involved, and the fact that, other than Colby Rasmus (an enigma of his own, ala JD Drew) and/or Carlos Gomez, there aren't many viable options for CF. Houston is also bringing up Alex Bregman over the weekend (to play 3B), so that will push Valbuena/AJ Reed/Gattis into shared at-bats...so, in the end, you'd have to think at least one or both of those guys will be available at season's end with all the young talent pushing up from below.

QUOTE (almagest @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 04:03 PM) If the Dodgers don't want too much for him (Hawkins? Adams?), and I don't think they can ask for too much, given his reputation and numbers the last two years, he's a guy I'd take a chance on for sure. He's cooled off a bit lately, but over the last month he's hitting .317/.417/.467/.883. If you assume he'll bounce back even to last year's numbers (OPS+ 110), he's still miles better than Avi or one of our many 4th outfielders. I think Bruce and Cargo are pipe dreams at this point, so the Sox are in the position where they need to look at moves like this. No one's going to just give us currently productive players for nothing, we don't have much trade ammo left at all , and there isn't much on the free agent market next year. Saladino has a higher WAR than Bruce, who can only realistically DH on a contending club.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 02:49 PM) Puig is the best centerfielder that plays right field since Clemente "Traditionally, centre field is not a premium offensive position," Hahn said. "You put a premium offensive player (Avisail Garcia) at a premium defensive position, it puts you in a pretty good spot for a club going forward. "We are not married to the idea of him playing centre. We wanted to take a look at it, get to know the kid a little bit better. He's extremely athletic, he has a world of tools and we want to give him the opportunity to play it out again at the premium position, even if he ultimately does wind up at a corner here in Chicago." http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/55983572/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-m...?ex_cid=rrpromo Tied for the eighth likeliest probability to make the playoffs with the Mariners and slightly ahead of KC and NY. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx 9th...at 8.4% Last year, the Orioles and Twins were flawed teams, as were the Angels. Highly doubt we see the same regressions from Boston, Toronto and Houston this year...because all of those teams are going to make improvements the next 6 weeks (or already have, in the case of Ziegler to BOS). Seattle also has more motivation (and resources) to make a move and reverse their slide. And the projections aren't factoring in Wade Davis and Lorenzo Cain returning from the DL, for example. All things considered, from where we were last year the final week of July, we're pretty much treading water...you can certainly argue the 23 7/9th's - 10 record to start was a sign of progress, but then May/June has been a brick wall that stopped that progress in its tracks. I'm not even 100% sure that their 7 consecutive late July wins last year after a terrible start didn't provide more hope than White Sox fans currently have about the team's prospects of making the playoffs in 2016.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 08:49 AM) Yet you would have had no qualms about including Thompson in the Samardzija trade. It's in your posts for everyone to see. Gee, that was at the end of the 2014 season. SOMETHING DIFFERENT HAPPENED IN 2015....gee, I guess we shouldn't adjust our thinking in any way, shape or form as a result of new evidence, which should LOGICALLY be weighted more heavily than previous seasons.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 08:44 AM) Let's do player a/player b (stole from SSS): Player A: .242/.307/.477, 11 2B, 19 HR, 29 BB, 78 K, 109 OPS+ Player B: .213/.305/.476, 9 2B, 25 HR, 40 BB, 85 K, 110 OPS+ A is Semien. B is Frazier. Surprised Trayce Thompson wasn't included. You're also not taking into account years of control/salary in 2016 and 2017. Finally, almost everyone would agree that getting those numbers from SS/CF/C should be a priority before all other positions.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 13, 2016 -> 08:38 AM) They had more players in the Majors or upper minors that could handle those positions than they had at any other position on the diamond, that what is meant by "out of depth." They could have had 15-20 middle infielders under 6 years of control and it wouldn't matter one iota if none of them were major league regulars. 90-120 years of control!!! Amazing. It also doesn't explain trading Thompson when they had zero depth behind him. If all of those infielders were such quality depth, they wouldn't have had Gillaspie/Beckham there ahead of them....and then traded for Todd Frazier the following off season.