caulfield12

Biggest difference of opinion has to be Adolfo...and then the ceiling of Peter.

Trades won't work unless we're dealing non-premium talent and taking on larger, mostly veteran contracts. Unless you really want a Blackmon and think he's worth Adams+. We can't just give up Avi, LaRoche and Sanchez and still expect to get anywhere.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 02:52 PM) Hey if Atlanta wants Cespedes we can take Ender Inciarte Who are you willing to trade? They still want Markakis, Bourn and Swisher off the books. They would play Inciarte, Olivera and Cespedes together.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 09:57 AM) You can expect this team to score more runs than other teams, but I'll argue they're no less dependent on sequencing. They can have 15 hits a game, but even though they're all good hitters, we still have no idea how they'll string those hits together. And how they do it will not be consistent from game to game and season to season. I don't think it's an effort to ignore context, as obviously context incredibly important. I think it's just an attempt to have a measurement free of it. Realized I didn't address the "calling it luck" part, which I can understand. I agree there is more to a big inning than just luck. The "luck" label is there to address the uncertainty of whether you can repeat it over and over. That's where overall line-up balance in terms of obp, slg, ops and rhb/lhp/switch hitters also factors in. Better to have 6-7 really good hitters than 2-3 great ones combined with a bunch of average to below average. Do you have the type of team that can manufacture runs in tight games?

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 10:07 AM) One thing to keep in mind is that Frazier and especially Lawrie are young enough to be considered extension candidates to keep them around beyond the next two seasons. Not saying it will happen, just that the possibility exists. I do agree with your points about CarGo and Melky. And so was Jeff Samardzija, or so we heard all last offseason. Frazier's going to be up for a huge payday if he puts up the same stats he did for Cincy because of the dearth of quality 3b in MLB...and in that same Alex Gordon higher risk age territory.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 08:17 AM) The White Sox haven't mentioned their payroll at all. One thing they have been able to accomplish over the years is to get the media and the fans to always buy into the "we don't have any money" routine. When they signed Dunn and brought Paulie and AJ back, people wondered where they got the money. The season was a disappointment, the attendance dropped again, but they still, according to Forbes, made money. That was with a $127 million payroll and $25 million less a year from the national TV contract. I also don't understand the 2 year window people. Yes, in 2 years guys like Melky and Frazier and Lawrie could be gone, but that frees up money and maybe a couple of minor leaguers step up. One infamous whiner has gone from the Sox window won't open for 2 years to saying it will shut in 2 years due to Frazier and Lawrie. What did they give up for those guys that was going to be the fuel for the team being great in 2 years? I think if they get Cespedes or Fowler or Jackson, they are looking good in 2016. Jackson intrigues me. He was a good player in Detroit but like several others, couldn't hit at all in Seattle. See Beltre, Adrian. He isn't Beltre with the bat, but IMO, would look good in CF, and is still 29 and probably good for at least a 2 WAR, maybe more. I still want Upton, Cespedes, Jackson, Fowler in that order. I think RH will get one of them. It's probably hopeless on Upton, but an OF upgrade, and a couple things going correctly, this team should be pretty good. This act of taking indirect potshots is getting about as old as Malcolm McDowell whining on Mozart in the Jungle about being put out to pasture as conductor. Obviously, if they keep bringing in players who will be around past 2017, there would be a different conclusion to draw. Otherwise, the jury's still out. Let's see if they trade for CarGo/Ethier and bring in Jackson for 1-2 years RATHER than signing Upton, Cespedes, Desmond or Fowler for a minimum of at least three years (and no opt-out after 2017).

Chen signs 5 years, $80 million with Marlins... He was really the top of that second tier though, certainly no bargain.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 07:48 PM) Who the hell are these six to seven credible suitors for Davis? Cardinals, Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Angels....there's a more detailed article in the Davis opening post.

Wouldn't they have to wait to sign him? Still think Baez gets a shot in the spring if he's not traded...although playing RF would be a pretty big adjustment after playing almost exclusively on the middle infield.

I think it's because it's very hard to statistically measure "keep the line moving" and momentum shifts and swings in a baseball game...or game-changing plays on the basepaths and especially from a defensive standpoint. One losing team's bad luck is another winning team's pattern of cluctchness or being comfortable/confident in those situations. Success breeds more success. Just the same way in the NFL breaks seem to go to teams like the Steelers, Patriots or Seahawks when they're facing teams without as much experience on the biggest stage.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 06:47 AM) I don't get the Blackmon love at all. He's a league average hitter who plays below average defense. Throw in the Coors Field risk and I'm not sure what the big draw is. Young and cheap. Arguably, Trayce Thompson has a chance to be better, but he might need to leave the LA logjam for us to find out.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 06:35 AM) My concern is the free agent class after the 2017 season isn't supposed to be very good, so you may have to rely on internal options to fill these spots. Say we add GarGo and end up losing him, Frazier, Melky, & Lawrie in two years. Does anyone feel comfortable trying to compete with two of May, Engel, & Hawkins in the OF, plus Michalczewski at 3B and who the f*** knows at 2B? I know I don't. And I agree in two years it's make or break time, as we can still get a huge package for Sale at that time if things go south between now and then. However, even if we decide to sell of pieces, is it really the end of the world having Cespedes on the books for two more years? Best case scenario you trade him for some prospects, worst case scenario he is dead salary for a team not trying to compete. Making roster decisions that fit squarely into a two year window is beyond stupid and I really hope the Sox aren't thinking this way. None of those guys strike me as future All-Stars...which is which bring us to the precipice every time. Davidson and Avi play at 2-3 war level and they're not stuck behind the 8 ball...or Hawkins/Viciedo/Beckham play to projections. Any combination of non-abysmal development results would work, including Walker and Jared Mitchell as well. The main factors that makes a teardown almost impossible at that point are 1) the fact you're destroying your negotiating position for a new tv rights deal and 2) also white flagging Chicagoland to the Cubs simultaneously.

The two years if they did that would be make or break decision time on a complete rebuild or fortifying a playoff team after 2017. Right now, all the additions are geared towards that window of 2016-17. You bring up the logical concern...with no "bridge" to 2018 and 2019 at the current moment, other than Anderson/Fulmer/Adams...they're left with no clear direction if they don't sign anyone to a longer-term deal. Maybe there's still too much uncertainty internally about whether those three minor leaguers added to the current core are enough to justify adding a Desmond, Upton or Cespedes to a 3-5 year contract.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 03:41 AM) True. But they will not save money as one of them would be a high priced bench player. It would be more cost effective to sign one and use a rookie as the bench player. The only way it would work was no LaRoche and pushing Melky to DH...with Garcia as DH against lhp. That would allow you to get a huge amount of defensive improvement compared to last year from the outfield and much improved team speed as well. Personally, I'd go with Jackson and Desmond.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 03:19 AM) They are only replacing Garcia. They are not signing or trading for 2 OFs. Someone was inquiring about the salary expectations...basically Fowler and Jackson for 15-25% less than Upton or Cespedes per year and likely a shorter commitment in terms of years.

Fowler around $12-14 million per season and Jackson looking at $7-9 million, $21 million's on the lower end of the spectrum of the AAV Upton or Cespedes would realistically receive on short-term deals. But then that lost draft pick for Fowler's currently being assessed at $10-12 million in foregone short/long-term value as well.

The biggest positive is they chose the best candidate and not the cronyism approach of sticking someone like Bill Melton or another former Sox guy in there even if he wasn't really experienced or capable enough...MLB shouldn't be for "on the job" training.

$38.8 million for CarGo over a two year time span MIGHT be considered a fair price (simply because it's not for a long-term)...but I wouldn't in a million years trade Q/Rodon/Anderson/Fulmer to have the right to pay CarGo that much. Otherwise, it would be more logical to just roll the dice on contracts for 4 years/$80-90 million (with opt-outs) with Cespedes or Upton. Rodon or Q alone have to be worth much more than the possibility of Upton or Cespedes under-performing in the back half of those contracts. The key would be balancing the front-loaded/opt-out aspects with the payroll flexibility side of things. The Royals are only paying Alex Gordon $28 million combined the next two seasons, for example. In terms of competing with KC, CarGo would actually cost $10 million more in 2016/17...that's a HUGE gamble based on 1/2 season of play when the Rockies weren't even competing for anything at that time.

Unless they're bluffing about Moss or Adams (despite his anemic/injury-filled 2015) playing first...or even Holliday. That power boost in the middle of the line-up would go a long ways toward compensating for the OBP/defensive loss of Heyward. However, the Cardinals are never going to shell out that kind of money for five years, let alone seven. Heyward was a rare exception because of his age. Rangers have Moreland, Fielder for 1B/DH and then Hamilton/Ruggiano platoon in LF, but coming back to the organization where he started his career could make some degree of sense, plus I think Davis is originally from Texas.

It seems that if there are 6-7 credible possibilities for Chris Davis, the market for Cespedes and Upton should be just as wide open, especially for American League teams who can rotate at DH as well. I suppose it also depends for most of those teams how confident they actually are sticking Davis at a corner outfield spot for a year or two (eg. Detroit/Texas). Then we still don't know exactly how many teams are going to be drawn into a one-year deal for Upton...and how much of this 2 or 3 year/opt-out versus a 5 year guaranteed deal on Cespedes is gumming up the mix.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25446036

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 02:39 PM) There's enough of a gray area that it could still lead to lots of harassment and problems. Regardless, the focus of that post was not the law (which is dumb and unnecessary) but the comment. edit: also the follow-up from a fellow s***bag representative: The rep can't spell believe and isn't aware of inclination versus the word he made up....ouch.

Cargo's injury history, home/road splits, going from NL to AL and contract all work against him. If the Rockies are rebuilding, keeping Cargo makes much less sense compared to the other two unless they really believe he gives that much of an attendance/marketing bump as a franchise icon.

The Revenant didn't force a love story like Dances with Wolves into it either...there was a point it felt it could go in that direction, which still ends up as a kep plot point later in the movie. The addition of the father/son idea was the main Hollywoodization.

With Brantley out until midseason, and huge holes (the equivalent of Saladino, Avi and LaRoche) at 3b and RF, the Indians really shouldn't be the favorite until they prove they can win with Brantley. Rajai Davis isn't that impressive, either...and who knows what Napoli actually has left. Not to mention Kipnis and Santana are so inconsistent. But yeah, Lindor's so overlooked because of the team he plays for and the arrival of Correa and Bryant at roughly the same time. And they should have a healthy Gomes for the full season. If they added Cespedes or Upton, sure. Pen has some question marks, as well as overall defense.