caulfield12

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable...php?cid=1819124 I'm currently reading the book BIG DATA BASEBALL (2013/14 Pittsburgh Pirates' resurgence) and thought I'd bring up this particular discussion. It seems to be the only argument for keeping Tyler Flowers, and Soto to a lesser extent. The main thesis of the book is the "unexploited" niche value of pitch framing, and how that enabled them to identify Russell Martin (despite his .211 average in 2012) as THE free agent catcher to acquire based on this statistic, and the fact that his offensive downturn allowed them to offer only $17 million over two years. If you look at the numbers for F. Cervelli, you'll find him #2, with popular offseason acquisition targets Grandal #1 and Jason Castro #4, as well as Miguel Montero at #9 and Rene Rivera (see article http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2...ytics/25417499/ ) at #12 and much higher last year, #1. Obviously, there's not a 100% correlation with winning/playoff teams, as you'll see Mike Zunino (of the Tyler Flowers School of Offense) very high on the list as well, with the Mariners. There does appear to be a positive correlation, though, between teams in the playoff hunt and this particular statistic, specifically with the Pirates and their focus on its value. Some of the younger catchers on the positive side of the ledger are Hedges, Plawecki and Caleb Joseph...fwiw. The main point is that the Pirates and Rays (with Martin, Cervelli and Rene Rivera) found veteran, "high leadership value" catchers for bargain prices. The second most important point is the value of pitch framing was used in the targeting of Francisco Liriano (who ended up signing for $1 million in 2013 after the contract was voided due to an offseason broken arm, he later reached the incentives to build value back up and kick in an $8 million 2014 deal)... That the MAIN reason Liriano was poised for a comeback were that his peripheral pitching numbers were much better than his traditional stats, and that his "stuff" had returned by late 2012 (pitch fx, etc.), almost to the level of 2006 (just a couple of ticks off with fb and slider). The book points out how poor Ryan Doumit, Butera and Mauer (Twins) along with AJ Pierzynski (2012) were at pitch framing as support for the pairing of Liriano with R.Martin and now Cervelli. Finally, you can also see the value of this pitch framing with Edinson Volquez's career comeback (with the Pirates), which he's now carried over to the Royals. And all this is not to argue that Tyler Flowers should be the starter in 2016, it's just one way to view or "frame" the discussion...so to speak...and perhaps further evidence the Sox front office is starting to pay attention to these advanced statistical metrics. (Unfortunately, it's too late to "rescue" 2012, though.) The scary part is how EARLY the Pirates started to look at advanced statistics and build their own huge database...it began well over a decade ago, and was adopted first on the minor league level, where all their affiliates FORCED their 2B and SS to shift closer to 1B and 3B as an organizational philosophy...in the beginning, they even had plastic spikes in the ground to mark the positions and remind their players. It wasn't until 2013 (with Hurdle's job on the line) that they got together with the advanced metrics people and GM and started meeting weekly in the off season and daily in season to look at the whole shifting trend and how best to implement it at the big league level to maximum effect. Can Robin Ventura adjust with the time, like Clint Hurdle did? Time will tell, but it's the MAIN reason they (the Pirates) were able to take an average or below-average defensive team and make it a great one in one offseason without changing much of the talent on the roster (especially on their INF corners).

It's really quite simple....who do you think is best prepared to adapt to a new paradigm shift in baseball and lead the White Sox to the World Series again? KW? Hahn? Buddy Bell? Robin Ventura? Doug Laumann/Nick Capra? The obvious answer is it's either Hahn or someone from outside the organization.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 10:37 PM) With each coming year, betting big on the top tier FAs looks more like a fool's errand Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez aren't exactly helping that cause out.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_...adjust-pitching Mattingly questions Puig's desire to adjust to pitching (should probably send the memo over to Steverson as well)

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 08:30 PM) So you have a high strikeout slugger in his 30s who never hit for average who saw a decline in his final 4 years before retiring. Not the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. No. On the other hand, 2011 did happen...and if that was his 2014 season instead (which would have been the natural or expected career progression), it wouldn't have mattered so much to the franchise. Or, if he he didn't slump at the end of 2012 and they had made the playoffs instead of tanking/tiring/choking, a lot would have been forgiven for that as well. Perception is always more important than reality with most fanbases.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 07:32 PM) Me too sort of. I will always believe a team that can reverse their bad season and end up well meaning the players they already have improve is worth much more than some hit or miss prospects which the Sox have proved they can't handle (position players). Their players would be worth more in trades upon improvement than the draft position is worth. Of course they have proved worthless in acquiring new players too so its altogether disheartening on so many levels. The problem is that Ramirez and Samardzija are the only pieces likely to go somewhere...unless you believe they'll try to cut bait on Robertson and LaRoche as well. (And even here, we could make good arguments for keeping Ramirez with his value so low and no replacement for 2016.) We're pretty much stuck with Cabrera, Eaton (and he's been much better), Avi, Danks, etc. Finally, all the remaining position players like Gillaspie, Beckham, Sanchez, Flowers, Bonifacio and Soto have pretty limited trade value. We're kind of stuck in a "treading water" situation where the best we can hope for is that Avi and Rodon both continue to improve and someone like Crain, Nate Jones, E. Johnson, Beck, Montas or Danish can look like a piece for 2016 and beyond. Or that Micah Johnson or Sanchez can be relied upon for 2B/SS (either/or) beginning in April next year.

Leaving it pretty much a two team for one wild card spot...just don't see any way the Tigers and Twins BOTH make the playoffs. You've got four pretty "even" teams in the AL East, then the Astros and Angels in the West (don't think Texas had the pitching to hang in there). If Toronto could add more pitching, or the Astros/Angels could make a big move, they'd be prohibitive favorites (of course, that didn't work out so well in the end for the A's, did it?) Would be ironic if the A's send Zobrist back to the Rays...

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 06:45 PM) Ugh I hate that this has to be a thing. Can't they go on a stupid hot streak like the 2010 team? That would require beating up the Cubs (we went 13-2 against the NL in that streak, sweeping the Pirates/Nationals/Braves and losing 2 to the Northside)....a 2-0 start against Detroit...3-3 against Texas/KC in the middle...then sweeping the Angels and Royals 7-0 and winning at Minny to end up) 26-5 With our pitching, certainly possible, but 5-26 is just as likely with our managerial and coaching malaise, defense, base running and bullpen. Of course, the next problem is all the wasted money/resources (Manny Ramirez!) and the fact that this stretch led to the doubling down with the Adam Dunn acquisition before 2011 and the fact rebuilding/retooling/restocking with younger players was delayed another three seasons by this and the 2012 "false positive."

If the White Sox don't pick him up, it will be a shock. Assuming he does get to us first in the pecking order. Richie Weeks, as well. Then Addison Reed was sent down to AAA with a 7.20 ERA, so there's that.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 06:20 PM) I'm sorry but these are grown men playing baseball and getting a hell of alot of money then most of us will ever see and there should be no excuses. They get to play a game that alot of kids dream to play in their lives. I'm sure we all aren't fully happy with our jobs or bosses but we put our big boy pants and go to work cause we need a paycheck and I'm sure anyone one of us would like to take their place in a heart beat. That said, it's always easier to replace managers, coaches and front office staff than being forced to trade off players for pennies on the dollar. Whatever's bothering Alexei, whether it's just age catching up with him...or Minnie Minoso's death or family problems or whatever, we have to live with those excuses and try to make sense of them/rationalize...just like Adam Dunn's appendectomy in 2011 or health problems with one of his kids. What's the alternative? To release/DFA all the players when they disappoint us?

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 05:15 PM) Ventura had to be convinced to take the job. All of his teams have underperformed whether they were trying to win or not over the last three seasons. This isn't a decision that's real difficult. I'm not saying do it now as some last ditch effort to save the season. Actually, if they wait until October 5th and let him step aside on his own, that's fine. But there is no question Ventura cannot be here in 2016, and hopefully the entire coaching staff goes too, including Cooper. Time for a change, and hope things go better with the next regime. And even better, Kenny actually takes some blame with consequences, and he resigns. Now you're really dreaming. It would be like Stringer Bell admitting he was a naive mid-level regional drug dealer instead of an entrepreneur.

We can simply toss out 2011 (which, as you noted, no White Sox fan can do) and simply look at 2012-2014. .214 avg, 772 OPS, 32.3 homers, 82 RBI's, 84 walks per season, 190 strikeouts. Every year from 2007-2010, he was at an 889 OPS or higher (in the NL). His average was 914.5. So you're talking about a 16% decrease in performance, once again, throwing out 2011...so the question becomes, if you looked at those numbers (for three years), the fact that it was for a DH who lowered the DRS numbers whenever he took the field, how much would you be willing to pay for that level of production? $6 million? $8 million? $10 million? Would you even want that player at all?

The flip side is it forces US companies to increase their competitiveness and efficiency, and for some to completely fall by the wayside as other industries (and one of the arguments is that it's only service/retail being created, rather than intellectual/creative) rise to take their place. In other words, the inevitable happens faster. So is it better to prepare for the future proactively or wait until you have no choice but to change? Of course, the problem in America is that many workers are now being forced to do the work of 2-3 workers for basically stagnant salaries, low benefits and no overtime, but that's the problem...the world we became accustomed to for most of the past half century. It might be bad in America, but it's happening all over the world, especially southern Europe. One thing struck me this past week....there were very violent clashes between the police, private car taxi drivers (the Chinese version of UBER, which the Chinese government is trying to block to protect their own domestic version) and the regular taxis. The regular taxis (who had just increased their "initial" or basic meter fee from 6 to 10 RMB to start a ride) were complaining that they were losing so many customers. Of course, the customers were saying that the private drivers were providing them better service, no arguments/driving extra distances or pretending to get lost, the private cars have leather seats/sunroof....the private drivers were able to earn more money in this system (controlling their own fate/destiny), as the regular taxi drivers still had to pay their own insurance, license, gasoline, but the majority of it was going to the actual taxi ownership conglomerates. The beauty of the system was that the new mobile software applications were giving both riders and driver extra "bonuses" of 5-10, sometimes even 15 RMB, to use their system...so it's not only a better experience to hail a prvt car, it's also much cheaper. The point is...like in all of the world, instead of worrying about providing better service/experience to riders, the regular taxi drivers simply wanted to protect their turf and not deal with any competition...they wanted the government to "save" them from themselves and arrest the private drivers for circumventing the system (because they weren't officially registered taxis). That's not the solution, either. Of course, there's also no tipping in China, so the "customer service" or "customer is always right" ideal doesn't frequently come up here.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 05:17 PM) It's not cheating, but the Cubs are the only ones who could pull this off. The Sox have to basically go for it every year or the fanbase disappears. It just sucks that everything is going wrong this year. Where has the fanbase been since 2007? We're going to lose a lot more than the 1800-1900 season tickets that we added "going for it" this offseason, so obviously that strategy isn't working, either.

Last in the AL. 4th overall pick. 13 GB of the Royals, 8 GB for WC but might as well be 28 with how many teams they'd have to jump. It will be hard to catch the Marlins with Stanton out for 4-6 weeks now, although Jose Fernandez is coming back soon as well. (Note, all three teams behind/ahead of us have replaced their managers, fwiw.)

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 05:02 PM) Ding ding ding. Except as a cumulative or composite whole, that's not telling you anything, either. You'd have to look at each individual, their age at the time they switched leagues, their relative or weighted "expectations" (for example, isn't it reasonable to assume LaRoche, Samardzija or Dunn should produce XYZ result, compared to, say, Bonifacio or Jennings?) If we keep saying almost all of the players who have left the White Sox have failed to play well for other teams, it's not a coaching problem, it's a talent/ability one....but how can that always be the case if those players don't perform as expected when they were acquired in the first place? "On paper, they all SEEMED like great moves..." only gets you so far when the results are "embarrassing" in the minds of numerous scouts and front office personnel for other teams.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 02:36 PM) I'm listening to the postgame show. I must be nuts. And what was Rongey's argument this time? It happened too fast to react, you have to trust your "aces" to get themselves out of difficult situations, you can't use your best reliever in a tie game on the road in the bottom of the 9th, etc.? Cabrera and Eaton are coming around and looking like the players they were supposed to be for us in April...

Well, then isn't it on the GM to find the RIGHT players who are internally-motivated, knowing their manager isn't exactly noted in this regard? It seems the rest of the season, we'll be going round and round in circles between the players, manager, coaching staff, Hahn, KW and Reinsdorf (organizational culture/loyalty) assessing blame. Should get old fast, since we've already spent the first half of the season on that same discussion and argument.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 04:49 PM) A little dated( 2011) but it shows both hitters and pitchers https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2011/08/02/...s-for-pitchers/ With how baseball has changed so much the last past 1 1/2 seasons, I'm not sure how helpful those numbers would be...but at least you'd have some sort of benchmark, and it would be a lot more reliable than interleague play results.

Well, Marcus Semien just had his 23rd error (at a position we weren't even planning to play him). He also came 2 feet from hitting the first homer since 2013 against Wade Davis, so there's that. And Seattle, the Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles, etc., are disappointing too, blah blah blah. If anyone was holding onto the idea of the White Sox competing this season, that ending pretty much put the kibosh to those thoughts...especially with the Cardinals next.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 12:15 PM) OF course, that also means that they're below .500 and getting large available bonus pools every single year. Assuming the Red Sox with Moncada are the other, would be interested in seeing the rest of the top ten and determining if they're just big market spenders or teams with mostly losing records during that time frame. LA Angels and Texas? What's interesting is you don't often see the Cards, Braves, Rays blowing away anyone with their spending (in this area) but somehow they must be doing something right. Or SF. Even the A's, for example, threw out big money for Cespedes and Michael Ynoa, although Yoenis was over 23. You pretty much have to be a player in this intl game or the game will eat you alive.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 11:40 AM) How often has this worked in the past 10 year? This organization is bad at developing players or the scouting makes mistakes. Most likely they would get a pitcher out of it. Teams with losing records trade out of weakness unless it involves a Chris Sale type player. How many deals happen like the Cubs got? Just Peavy. Unless you want to put Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb in that same category...

And now Melky Cabrera hits one of the longest homers of the last 3-5 years at Comerica. Hmmm.....

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/291854571.html?ipad=y Article on Delmonico....this is nearing Bobby Jenks level resurrection if they can pull this off.

The idea of counting on Trayce Thompson as a full-time player isn't going to find many advocates. And, if you're breaking in Anderson in 2017, you're probably wasting two more years of Robertson waiting for 2018, which means you can do without an elite guy (and he might not even be that) until 2017 or more likely ASB 2017. It's also quite possible Montas or Danish could emerge to take over that spot...so you can shift $25 million being allocated to Robertson and spend it more efficiently in the short-term.