almagest

I don't think there's anything wrong with pushing back on an opinion, especially when it's presented as a fact.

Most of the chatter I recall was around the deal being a little light on the back end, not that it was a bad deal. This trade is better looking, true, but Cease likely got dinged because of his control issues and his down 2023, plus the Padres were seemingly the only team ready to actually trade for him. This time, we have Dombrowski and the Red Sox trying to compete with the Yankees.

You can be skeptical, and I think we all are, but that's a lot different than declaring the trade a failure already. Also, if you're assuming failure on prospect development in general, then the Crochet trade is a failure already.

Sure. The last 3 years don't justify calling the Cease trade bad, though. Early returns aren't great, but there's a long way to go. If Thorpe is a solid contributor next year and Zavala rebounds we're looking a lot better. Iriarte has already been solid in AA at age 22 and has a chance to be a contributor as well.

I would like to keep trading Dylan Cease every year, yes absolutely.

If you don't want to trade impact prospects then you trade for the expensive guys, I guess. Bohm, Casas or Abreu seem like a lot for Castillo unless the Ms pick up his salary. Luzardo you'd be buying low, but he wasn't very good last year. Cease we all know (if the Padres somehow get "more" than the Sox did for him this board is gonna explode). Valdez is a premium starter without a lot of control left. I could see one of Bohm, Casas or Abreu going in a trade for him. Sonny Gray is in his mid 30s and is likely in decline. I don't think he'll fetch much.

His White Sox career was outstanding. He was basically Frank Thomas in 2006.

I think it'd be Ian Cunningham.

That is much more of a fair trade than my initial knee jerk reaction thought it was.

Yeah of course it was. He went from the worst team ever to winning a World Series.

BOY would I love a team that has everyone with a positive fWAR on offense.

All deferred until Jerry dies and the new owner gets stuck with the entire bill

Top 5 are top 100 prospects, no? Unless Thorpe fell off the list due to his injury and performance in the majors.

The Cardinals and Patriots were absolutely quit games on both sides of the ball. The Patriots were just too terrible to be able to score more than 19.

You know, I was thinking "oh Kwan has to be have way better hitting metrics than Madrigal", but they're very, very similar. Kwan just maximizes this profile because he doesn't chase, which means he takes a lot of walks and makes good swing decisions, meaning his subpar exit velocity doesn't matter as much - Kwan is 94th percentile in xBA, Madrigal is way lower. Fixing Madrigal could be as simple as getting him to not swing at trash, but if it were that easy I'd imagine the Cubs would've done it.

It was a long, hard road to get to this level of futility, and drafting duds like Madrigal at the top of the first round was a big part of it.

Wow you mean every single one of these guys won't be very good and on their roster playing different positions? You mean they have a logjam of 1B/DH types and over hyped guys/guys who didn't develop properly? So there's no reinforcements for guys who struggle or leave on their MLB roster? Boy, that's a shame.

That’s fair, but the Sox didn’t want to take that chance apparently. Also, not sure how the package would change with a rebound year (though still not 2022 level), but with close to 2/3rds of a season less control.

Cease did not pitch like a TOR starter in 2023 and he only really showed that potential in 2022, so no matter how much fans or the White Sox valued him as one, other teams didn't. The Sox got roughly fair value for him - the question now is if they picked the right prospects to fill that value.

Badly coached teams beat themselves

That is 100% not going to happen by 2026.

That is a TERRIBLE trade. Good on the Reds for turning a bust into a good #3 starter

"Severe kidney infection"? Yeesh. No thanks. Kidney issues are very serious and could have a big effect on quality of life going forward, and Philly must be concerned about that if they'd DFA him with arb years left after trading for him.

Josh Bell was as bad as, if not worse than Vaughn last year. He's 32 and hasn't been good since 2022. There's no upside here. Justin Turner is 40 and only played first base regularly after he was traded to Boston. I'm not counting on a 40 year old to not fall off a cliff, especially on this team, and double especially when the "upside" is 1.5 bWAR. Mark Canha is 36 and was basically the same offensively as Vaughn. He is not an upgrade, especially at his age. Rizzo is 35, was worse than Vaughn, and couldn't stay on the field for the last 2 years. He's not an upgrade on anyone at this point in his career. Solano is 37 and only played in 96 games last year. He's probably not a full time player anymore, and he's never been a full time first baseman. At best, you'd still need someone else there for more than half the time, and at worst he falls off a cliff due to his age. Abraham Toro has only played at first in 15 of his 311 career games, and he was a worse hitter than Vaughn last year. I don't care how much cheaper he might be, he'd absolutely be a downgrade especially at a position he barely plays. He's probably the worst option in a field of bad options. Carlos Santana is the only one with solid production, but he's also going to be 39 years old when the season starts. It's likely he falls off a cliff, and then you're paying a guy who hits like Vaughn or worse as much as or more than you'd pay Vaughn. No thanks. Yeah, I'll stand by what I said.

If we can't afford $6 million there are exactly zero 1B free agents worth signing over Vaughn out there. At best, you'll save a little money signing an older, declining, left-handed Vaughn-like guy with zero potential upside. Trading a premium asset like Crochet for a 1B would be malpractice, so you're left with a smaller trade for a blocked 1B in another org (if one even exists), bringing Elko up, or retaining Vaughn.