chw42

It's not the worst idea to sell high on Liriano. For all I know, he could hurt himself again next season. Pitchers with bad mechanics should be sold high on.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2011 -> 07:19 AM) So do the Twins have anything on the way up in terms of minor league starting pitching? It seems like they've had the same batch of 5-6 guys as their starters since at least 2008. Kyle Gibson.

It's also pretty sad that Matt Thornton isn't anywhere on the reliever list but Jose Valverde is...

The Twins staff is a lot of mediocrity after Liriano. Please let this happen.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 11, 2011 -> 12:54 AM) These lists were just supposed to be based on 2010, correct? In general I think. There's no way Jeter should be 3 on the SS list based on his 2010 season. None.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 11, 2011 -> 12:37 AM) Aparently their lists all leaked for their ongoing list series. Anyways, here's the apparent lists: MLB Network has been running this series for a while it seems. The complete list leaked anyway though. Here's the rest: Starting Pitchers 10. Josh Johnson 9. Justin Verlander 8. Adam Wainwright 7. Cliff Lee 6. David Price 5. Jon Lester 4. CC Sabathia 3. Tim Lincecum 2. Felix Hernandez 1. Roy Halladay Relievers 10. Aroldis Chapman 9. Jose Valverde 8. Rafael Soriano 7. Andrew Bailey 6. Heath Bell 5. Carlos Marmol 4. Neftali Feliz 3. Joakim Soria 2. Brian Wilson 1. Mariano Rivera First Basemen 10. Kendry Morales 9. Justin Morneau 8. Paul Konerko 7. Prince Fielder 6. Ryan Howard 5. Mark Teixeira 4. Joey Votto 3. Adrian Gonzalez 2. Miguel Cabrera 1. Albert Pujols Second Basemen 10. Neil Walker Did the Pittsburgh writer who voted this guy for RoY make this list? 9. Kelly Johnson 8. Brian Roberts 7. Rickie Weeks 6. Ian Kinsler 5. Brandon Phillips 4. Dan Uggla 3. Dustin Pedroia 2. Chase Utley 1. Robinson Cano Third Basemen 10. Casey McGehee 9. Placido Polanco 8. Scott Rolen 7. Mark Reynolds 6. David Wright 5. Adrian Beltre 4. Kevin Youkilis 3. Alex Rodriguez 2. Ryan Zimmerman 1. Evan Longoria Shortstops 10. Starlin Castro 9. Marco Scutaro 8. Stephen Drew 7. Alexei Ramirez 6. Jimmy Rollins 5. Elvis Andrus 4. Jose Reyes 3. Derek Jeter LOL 2. Troy Tulowitzki 1. Hanley Ramirez Left Fielders 10. Raul Ibanez 9. Carlos Lee 8. Jason Bay 7. Martin Prado He's not even a real LFer. 6. Delmon Young It's sad that I see this guy right after Matt Holliday. 5. Matt Holliday 4. Carl Crawford 3. Carlos Gonzalez 2. Josh Hamilton 1. Ryan Braun Center Fielders Where is Alex Rios?!?!?! You're telling me Matt Kemp and his horrible season last year can get #2 on this list and Grady Sizemore can be #10 after not playing a full season for two years and there's no Alex Rios? 10. Grady Sizemore 9. Jacoby Ellsbury 8. Torii Hunter 7. Vernon Wells He's in front of Rios...? 6. Colby Rasmus 5. Austin Jackson 4. Shane Victorino 3. Curtis Granderson 2. Matt Kemp 1. Andrew McCutchen Right Fielders 10. Justin Upton 9. Nick Markakis 8. Mike Stanton Already? If you're gonna give Stanton so much love, you might as well put Heyward even higher. 7. Jason Heyward 6. Nelson Cruz 5. Andre Ethier 4. Jose Bautista 3. Jayson Werth 2. Shin-Soo Choo 1. Ichiro Suzuki Managers 10. Joe Girardi 9. Bud Black 8. Buck Showalter 7. Dusty Baker Jesus Christ... 6. Bruce Bochy 5. Tony La Russa 4. Charlie Manuel 3. Ron Gardenhire 2. Mike Scioscia 1. Terry Francona I only spot 2 Sox. Alexei should be higher. WTFs are in bold. This list blows.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 10, 2011 -> 06:33 PM) The real fact is...the Sox really don't have *That* bad of a contract that they'd be interested in dumping...except for Jake Peavy...and the team's shown no interest in dumping him. This isn't Jose Contreras 2007, at least not yet. Dumping Teahen gives savings that everyone has to admit are small at best. I really doubt Teahen is going to produce at all these next two years. So that's like saving $10 million right there.

The latest edition of CAIRO projections have the White Sox finishing 84-78, but in first place in the AL Central. Says Sox have 36% chance at winning division. http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comment...ected_standings

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 10, 2011 -> 04:57 PM) (this will be a little rough and perhaps illogical in some spots, so bear with me) No, but the side that this is missing is the production of Morel. James projects Morel as a .291/.327/.448 hitter, Marcel at .261/.325/.422. For argument's sake, I'll meet them in the middle, though I won't expect Morel to put up that kind of line (I expect him to hit less than James' projection and to also draw fewer walks, so basically I think the OBP is actually right on). So we'll say a line of .270/.325/.425. Brennan Boesch put up a .256/.320/.416 line for the Tigers this past year and that was worth 0.4, so I think assuming a 0.5 batting rating is fair. By all accounts, Morel is a good fielder. For this exercise, I'm going to assume that he has some adjustment this year and that his defense is only average, so I am going to assume a 0 UZR. It could realistically be much better than that. I will also assuming slightly smaller positional and replacement figures due to the presence of Vizquel. For simplicity's sake, we'll say 2 and 18 respectively. Overall, that leaves him at about 25 RAR, so worth about 2.5 WAR. Perhaps that is high, perhaps low, but I personally think that's a pretty safe number, which leaves Morel and Young as pretty equal players, so it will be worth the same $11.1 mill. Then, assuming slight progress over the next 3 years, and still assuming the 6% inflation, we are left with something along the lines of 2011 - 2.5 WAR ($11.1) 2012 - 2.9 WAR ($13.7) 2013 - 3.5 WAR ($17.5) all the while Morel is making the virtual league minimum, though I think he will end up being Super-2 eligible, so probably a grand total of about $2 mill. Still, that is $40 million in surplus value. I'm quite sure that it won't play out exactly like this, but even if Morel gives half the production, you are still looking at huge surplus value from him. On top of that, it's not figuring what production you will get from Teahen too. There will be some on here who are not opposed to moving Teahen because he's the scapegoat, but I do think he can be a good player off the bench for the Sox and worth anywhere from 0.5-1 WAR, especially if he is utilized properly (never, never, never playing 3B and playing only against RHP). If the Sox lose Teahen, they are stuck with De Aza, Lillibridge, Milledge, Gartrell, or Danks, and to me, those are not appealing options. It just doesn't make sense to trade for Michael Young. I know it doesn't make sense for the Sox to go trade for Young. We have no room for him, especially if Morel turns out to be as good as I think he will be on both sides of the ball. But there's always the aspect of Young being more of a sure thing, even if he's overpaid. I was just pointing out that if this trade were to happen (for the Sox or any team) and the team receiving Young dumps a bad player and also gets some salary relief in return, then I'd say it's a fair deal.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 10, 2011 -> 12:37 PM) No. Odds are very good that Michael Young is a bad player at the end of his contract, which ends in 2013, while the Sox could have Brent Morel at about $750k or so (or Beckham there with Escobar at 2B, or Viciedo there, or Eric Chavez there...all are cheaper). Meanwhile, the Sox owe Teahen approximately $10 million total over the next two years, but if he has a semi-good year this year, it's very possible that the Sox will be able to get out of $2-3 million of that contract after this season in a similar trade to the Linebrink deal. Meanwhile, the Sox would have had Young for another year beyond that. Trading for Young would be trading just to trade. The Sox need to stay very, very, very far away. If we go by normal regression for those over the age of 34 (which is an average of 0.7 WAR per season) and take next year's projections as his true talent level then... Young's 2011 projections: Marcel: 618 PA .335 wOBA Bill James: 677 PA .344 wOBA RotoChamp: 667 PA .352 wOBA CAIRO: 680 PA .336 wOBA FanGraphs Fans: 655 PA .341 wOBA Aggregate: 659 PA .342 wOBA Fan Projections have him at -5.1 for defense, CAIRO has him at -9. Let's meet somewhere in between and say -7. Young projects out this way for 2011 if he were to play at U.S. Cellular Field, assuming league average wOBA of .323 and 4.45 runs per game. Batting: 6.7 Fielding: -7 Replacement: 22 Positional: 2.3 RAR: 23.9 WAR: 2.5 Value: $11.1MM @ $4.5MM per win. Assuming .7 WAR regression each season and 6% inflation of win value. 34 - 2.5 WAR ($11.1) 35 - 1.8 WAR ($8.6) 36 - 1.1 WAR ($6.7) Total - 5.4 WAR ($26.4) Young's being paid $48 million during that span of time, so there's a $21.6 million deficit. If you dump Teahen's contract of $10 million, that deficit is down to $11.6 million. Much more manageable. Plus, if you were to somehow get money back, that'd make it even better. You'd also have to consider an overpaid player producing is much, much, more valuable than an overpaid player giving you replacement level production (like Teahen). Not saying that the Sox should go out and make this deal, but I don't think it would be a horrible Vernon Wells-like deal if a team were to pull it off.

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 01:59 AM) It's absolutely retarded, which is why its funny. Darren Sharper hold mah diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiick. The original is still the best.

Williams turned the ball over twice in about 30 seconds and fouls Rose. Bulls in good shape to possibly win this one. Oop, make that three turnovers in a minute. That's game.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Feb 9, 2011 -> 12:49 PM) Have they seen boston's line up? I ain't scared, but damn... they look like they can score on anybody. 2011 PECOTA has the Rays and Yankees at 98 and 100 wins. They have Boston at 88. I don't know what they're smoking over there at BP. The Sox are at 89 wins.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Feb 9, 2011 -> 12:26 PM) PECOTA already projects the White Sox to have the best offense in baseball... no sense in adding Young to hurt our defense. Really?!?!?!

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 04:20 PM) Well my goal is to find a community average, with a +5% above and below deviation to find the range. You can do averages with the range method. You just need enough data points.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 11:32 AM) Why would them filling out 5 mean they are willing to fill out 10? That's twice as much, and even I don't want to fill out almost 300 spots. 300 and 150 are quite different. "And if people have an average in mind, of course they are going to dick with AB and H to get it where they want to, that's kind of the point. " I don't agree. I think a lot of people will say "I think Beckham will hit .290 next year", but then they would have to sit there and tink with hits and AB until they get a number that comes out to .290, and then then they do the 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR, they need to have it equal the hits they put in, ect. Also, I don't see how HBP or SF are anything that anyone can guess with any sort of accuracy. Sure, you can assume Quentin will lead the team, and Pierre might be up there too, but those stats are too much dependent on the pitcher's inaccuracy, and aren't really numbers anyone is familiar with. Could you tell me who led the league in HBP last year or SF and with how many? Probably not. But you are much more likely to know who led the league in AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and maybe OBP. You can have people guess in ranges. That's what most projection polls do. They don't input exact numbers. Go look at how FanGraphs does it.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 8, 2011 -> 01:49 AM) If people are going to fill in 5 slots for 30 players, they are going to be willing to put in 10. And if people have an average in mind, of course they are going to dick with AB and H to get it where they want to, that's kind of the point. It's pretty simple to do something like that. And for pitchers, I would actually reverse it and allow for IP and ERA and then figure out the ER from there. For hitters - AB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K, R, RBI, HBP, SF For pitchers - G, GS, IP, ERA, BB, H, K, HR, and SV too, though I think that will be pretty split between Sale and Thornton For accuracy's sake, this seems to be the much better route. PAs would be better IMO. If I have enough relevant data, it's possible for me to convert these projections to WAR.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Feb 7, 2011 -> 09:00 PM) I figured it's too difficult of a category to guess, especially when you predict a 2B and HR, then your SLG could be way off what it should be based on that 2. Same reason I didn't include hits, because then there is math involved to get an accurate answer. Or you could just include ask for the component numbers and get a script to calculate all the necessary numbers. That way, you can expand on those numbers into other more complicated stats if you wanted to.

Why isn't there a category for SLG?

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 08:17 PM) The Sox offered Hunter 5 years - $75M. Good thing that signing never happened.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 03:28 PM) Reminds me of the Red Sox last year. Red Sox got Beltre, Cameron, and Scutaro though.

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 08:56 PM) I got a new computer a year ago, but it doesn't have any photoshop programs in it. I wasn't able to salvage anything from my old computer, so now I'm looking around for a good photoshop program. I'd prefer one that I can download somewhere for free, if any such free programs exists. Anyone recommend anything? GIMP

I really hope Aaron Rodgers isn't on the cover of my Madden game next year. But then again, if he is, he's probably gonna suck due to the Madden curse...lol

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 6, 2011 -> 02:58 PM) Yankees sign Ronnie Belliard, Eric Chavez to minor league deals. Yankees are doing nothing but picking up scrap heap players this off-season, outside of Soriano and Feliciano.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Feb 5, 2011 -> 12:38 AM) They sign Vlad for 8M. Sign Derrek Lee, Kevin Greg and trade for Mark Reynolds. Good for them for at least trying...too bad their pitching staff is horrendous. Don't forget J.J. Hardy.