Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 01:50 PM) I think the type of team that would make most sense would be a team like the Nationals, consistently there, window about to be closing, one last push to make a WS. But, obviously they aren't and their roster doesn't make sense. The cards are the other team that could make sense, but they clearly still see their team and roles as one that is consistently competitive and aren't going to risk it. The Yankees aren't in that mold but make sense in that they were nearly a WS team last year and expect to bid on his services the year thereafter. So, again, I think it sucks for the orioles market right now because it's a bunch of teams that are basically telling the orioles that his 2018 production means nothing to them so they aren't going to pay that much for it. So you're saying a Fulmer + Stephens package just might work

QUOTE (FT35 @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 01:27 PM) I mean...I agree...but Theo is creative and he could find ways to make it happen. More years/less per year, moving Lester/Heyward/maybe even Zobrist, talking a player down to make a championship run. My guess is that he's not THAT concerned with the luxury tax--given that his Red Sox were usually over when he was there and and his main competition was ALWAYS over it in NY. The luxury tax threshhold for 2018 is $197 million. If Machado and Harper made $30m each, that leaves $137 million to build the rest of their roster--a number that would have been 16th in MLB--right above teams like Cleveland and Houston. A payroll of $197 million would still only be 5th overall in MLB (using 2017 MLB numbers) and about $45 million LESS than the Dodgers. First off...It's insane money, I get it...but I bet Theo could write Machado's and Bryce's checks, bump his remaining salaries by $13 mil to spend $150 million on the remaining roster (only about $20 million less than his payroll from last year--for a total of $210 million). He'd be $13 million over the luxury tax line, costing him a whopping $2.2 million (lol) in luxury tax penalties...and STILL NOT have the highest payroll in MLB by a longshot. He would have Machado, Harper and a $150 million dollar roster around them. There may be some revenue benefits that follow that type of move. Theo may not care about the luxury tax, but the Ricketts sure as s*** do. How the Red Sox operated has nothing to do with how the Cubs operate. Also, the Cubs had nearly $100M in 2019 payroll commitments to like six players before they recently added a couple more relievers. Add in all their arbitration eligible players and that number is going to quickly skyrocket. Add in a hypothetical $75M for Machado & Harper and they’ll be well over the luxury tax. And I’m sure the Ricketts would love having three large, long-term contracts on their books at the same time. No risk there based on how the first one is shaking out.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 12:21 PM) Makes sense for the Cubs actually. I actually do think I would trade 4 controlled years of Russell for 1-year of Machado. They have Baez and Happ ready to contribute where needed. It'd probably save some money on a 5th starter too, because frankly they really wouldn't need a good one! I also believe Machado would fall in love with the city and the baseball atmosphere surrounding the Cubs and would re-sign because they are a team that is set up to contend for the majority of his prime. Plus, if they found a way to dump Heyward and somehow lure Bryce (which wouldn't be all too difficult with Bryant, Rizzo and Machado there), that would be an unbelievable situation. Lots of ifs. But ifs of this magnitude rule out most teams. Typically contending teams with bright futures and deep pockets can endure risk of this caliber. As for us...I think it would be great to see Machado here. But just don't think it's a good fit in a trade situation, NOW--in the event he resigns somewhere else. Could you imagine losing 2+ key pieces of our rebuild for a meaningless year of Machado (good or bad)? Do you think it's worth it to add him with the thought of flipping him at the deadline if we get the inclination he would not resign with us? That would limit the risk a little, but a deal for a mega-star player like Machado would take a while to complete. I do still think a team could part with a VERY TOP prospect at the deadline to get Manny Machado for their stretch run, with the inside track on resigning him if things went well. He's one of the very few who I think could make a difference large enough to justify that. I don't know...just ramblin' some thoughts. There is no way in hell the Cubs are finding someone to take Heyward’s contract. And there’s no way in hell the Ricketts are signing both Machado & Harper even if those players would. The Cubs’ core is about to hit arbitration and start getting very expensive. Just not happening. And if the Cubs were to move Russell (or another major league piece) they’d be wise to use him toward a TOR starter and not another bat. They really don’t have a lot minor league chips to leverage anymore. Regardless, all this Cubs talk is nonsense and is simply intended to drive more clicks for these baseball writers.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 11:56 AM) Are there any updates on this story or was this an overreaction to news reports that weren't fully vetted? There has been a lot of discussion as to why the White Sox would trade assets for a possible 1 year rental and/or if Machado/White Sox would be willing to come to an agreement on a large deal with other big market teams likely interested next off-season.... Should we expect any Machado news in the near future and/or at all? The rumor is to expect a decision by the end of this week one way or the other. And that probably makes sense, because whether they keep or sell Machado greatly impacts the rest of their offseason.

Pulled this off that Orioles board. Doesn’t seem to me that the Cardinals are about to go hog wild for Machado. Really seems like all the rumored interest is being somewhat fabricated on the Orioles side.

QUOTE (Sockin @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 10:10 AM) The Rosenthal article seems like an Orioles plant. It seems like they're desperately trying to get teams to up their offers or get others involved and no one seems to want to? QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 10:12 AM) Rosenthal already showed me how reliable he is when it comes to the Orioles when he said we were discussing Kopech for Machado. I don't believe any info they feed him. I agree, but this s*** makes me very nervous. I just hope the Sox know what they’re doing. I have no problem throwing out a moderate offer in the off-chance it sticks, but we definitely don’t need to get involved in a bidding war. Having said that, I still can’t figure out what teams would actually overpay for a year of Machado. To me, it’s the Cardinals or bust and I still don’t see them giving up a package that much bigger than what they gave up for Ozuna.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 08:04 AM) Yeah that's more than twice what I would be comfortable with the WSox giving up TBH, I don’t see either team offering anything like that and the Cubs stuff seems to be media created in the first place.

Rosenthal’s latest article suggests a decision should be finalized before the end of the week. He also threw out a couple trade proposals that he thought made sense, but not necessarily based on anything he heard. Cubs - Russell, Montgomery, & a prospect Red Sox - Boagarts, Rodriguez/Pomeranz, & Chavis/Travis If the cost is going to be anything like the above, then we better be sitting this one out. I think both of those packages are absurd and if we offered anything comparable it would greatly reduce our prospect depth. A couple other interesting nuggets. Rosenthal mentioned from the outside the bidding for Machado seems less than frenzied, but acknowledged that’s only based on known information. He also believes the Cardinals do not want to trade another promising young starter and mentioned both Reyes & Flaherty, which would seem to make them a tough match with the Orioles.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 05:58 AM) I’m thinking Baltimore holds onto him until the trade deadline. Playoff contenders tend to give up better value at that time since they are competing with the other contenders. Look at what the Cubs gave up for a few months of Chapman? Not to mention, if a contending teams 3b goes down to injury, it would force them to overpay for renting Machado. I just don’t see the importance of Baltimore dealing him during the winter? Unless the White Sox or Diamondbacks truly have ‘the best packages out there’? Which I don’t understand since apparently they are holding onto their top prospects? Anway, time to move on from this rumor.... I’m not saying the Orioles should or should not trade him now, but banking on an injury by the deadline to create demand is probably a bad strategy. And no one will forced to overpay for Machado if there are other quality options available. Donaldson is one name that immediately comes to mind who will likely be available. There’s just no certainty when it comes to the deadline. And it’s definitely not fair to assume a Chapman overpay. That is one of the biggest outlier deals in recent memory, even when considering the reliever premium in recent years. Look at what the Diamondbacks gave up for JDM last year. With this many sellers, there are typically good position players available at the deadline.

When does our TV deal end? Seems like if you were going to invest in a star, you’d want to do it before those negotiations start.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 06:15 PM) The thing is, with the huge contracts, history suggests that not all the offers will be equal, like you seem to be banking on. Texas blew everyone out of the water for ARod. The Angels shocked the world for Pujols, and Seattle offered $70 million more than the Yankees for Cano. I think more often than not these negotiations top out at a certain price price. Otherwise you get exactly what happened with the Rangers & ARod where they bid against themselves.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 05:59 PM) The speculated move is something a team like the Cardinals, Astros or Dodgers should do, where they can compete with him this coming year and have a strong enough farm system to survive losing two big guys. The Astros make zero sense. The Dodgers are determined to come in under the luxury tax this year so they can theoretically offer Harper or Machado even more money. Neither team is trading for him right now.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 05:47 PM) Wouldn't an additional $17 million to his offer be better? Using the trade for him way, you have to pay him at least $17 million more than anyone else to be equal to their bid, not including the value of the package you trade for him, which, from what I can tell, you don't think needs to be very significant, which is ridiculous. Do you really think the Yankees are going to let $17M cost then Manny Machado? If you keep topping them, it’s almost a certainty they’ll match each & every time. Trying to outbid them will just raise the overall price. We just have to be prepared to match whatever number the Yankees settle at and that becomes a helluva lot easier if we’re his previous team & he enjoyed his time playing with us. Otherwise he may not give us that opportunity. I have no idea how the cost will be to acquire Machado, but the idea doesn’t make any sense if package required is significant and it destroys our rebuilding effort if he doesn’t resign. I’m giving Hahn the benefit of the doubt for now as I think he only does a deal if it’s on his terms and the price is moderate. If he gives up something crazy I’ll be just as pissed as you.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 05:43 PM) Paying him $17 million for a useless season accomplishes nothing. This is absolutely ludicrous.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 05:26 PM) If it is about forming bonds, and not all about money, how come he isn't signing with Baltimore Because Baltimore can’t afford to pay him market after blowing their wad on Chris Davis. Why is this so difficult?

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 04:50 PM) Saw that post and same guy mentioned Giolito AND Lopez That would never happen and would be the single dumbest trade in baseball history. The whole point of this idea is to have a team that is ready to compete in 2019. If you trade both Giolito & Lopez, you’re not going to have a playoff caliber rotation in place.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 04:26 PM) I read a blog where the guy said a fair price would be Hansen, Fulmer, and Burger. To me, that seems about right. A top 100, a guy who struggled, and a relative unknown. What type of monetary value would you put on that package? If the Dodgers had the Sox farm system, would you take those 3 to take all of Matt Kemp's money? If so, the price to acquire Machado to get him to love the culture, with his salary, would approach $60 million. Would just outbidding everyone by $60 million work better, and keep the prospects? I If they give up those three guys it’s a terrible trade IMO. Hansen should not be a part of these discussions. And for the millionth time, it’s not just about the “culture” as you conveniently call it to mock the idea. It’s about him forming a bond with the players & coaches and generally becoming comfortable with the organization. Have you ever formed bonds with coworkers? Have you ever enjoyed working at a certain company? It’s amazing to me how foreign of a concept this is to you. No doubt money talks, but all along we have said over & over again the money has to be there too or this is all for naught. And how does your idea of using projected surplus value as part of our bid work exactly? Surplus value is all based on opportunity cost of NOT having to pay market rate for production. How are you turning these three prospects into actual cash flow? And what happens if they bust?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:58 PM) The problem you have here is not only Machado one of the best players in the game, he is also a franchise icon. A trade that basically looks like a salary dump isn't happening which is why the White Sox interest is curious and ridiculous. This is a fair point, but again we’re talking the Orioles. And as good of a player as Machado is, I just don’t see teams offering up huge prospects for him given his one year of control. I honestly can’t figure out what teams make sense. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still nervous as hell though. The fact we’re supposedly in the lead generally makes me uneasy without knowing exactly how big of an offer we’ve actually made.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 02:11 PM) I think Angelos is passing on a good opportunity to exploit the Yanks. If Angelos expects Machado to sign with the Yanks next year anyway, then why not take advantage of a chance to get something from the Yanks this year? I would tell the Yanks that if they really want Machado, discussions begin with Torres. With so many bidders ( up to ten ) the Orioles are in a great spot to drive the price up on the Yanks to see just how desperate they are for Machado. I don’t disagree with your logic, but I just don’t see the Yankees ever being that desperate to land Machado now. Torres is an integral piece to their future given how cheap he’ll be.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:54 PM) Duquette isn't an idiot. He knows he could get a better prospect than Cease at the deadline. Also, for some reason I don't think Angelos would be a fan of Cease's medical history. Duquette isn’t, but what about the Angelos family? Most other organizations I’d agree with, but this is the Orioles we’re talking about. They have a funny/unique way of doing things.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:35 PM) Supposedly ten offers have been made. I'm sure at least one team can offer better than a top 90-100 pitching prospect and a mid-level prospect. Come on fathom, who would have leaked the “ten teams have made offers” nugget? It’s obviously coming from the Orioles and they have every reason to make it look like there is a ton of interest. If you actually believe this rumor, then name some of the teams that might have made offers. As for the price, I would have thought Ozuna would have landed at least one sure fire top 100 prospect and the best they got was a borderline guy. It really does seem like teams are saving their chips for more cost-controlled assets, which makes sense with the sheer number of teams rebuilding. Outside of aces & elite relievers, it feels like deadline costs have also dropped substantially. Just no reason to overpay for short-term assets when there are numerous sellers.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:18 PM) Because a lot of teams could easily beat a Cease and Adams package. My guess is it's Lopez and Anderson. What teams have the need, the cash to make a quality contract offer, & the prospect currency to get a deal done? I’m being serious, I don’t really see that many teams that make sense. The Yankees may be the only AL team that meets all three criteria and Baltimore won’t deal with them. Who else from the NL makes sense beyond the Cardinals? I expect the Phillies to be involved, but they’re outliers just like us. I’m just not seeing the matches here.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:07 PM) Again, that would not be consistent with Hahn's assurances. That doesn't mean that it couldn't happen, but it would surprise and disappoint this fan. I’m not saying Hahn would or wouldn’t do that deal, I’m just saying that might be the lowest offer the Orioles accept from us. And I’m sure most people here would hate it and I wouldn’t blame them. I’d hate to lose a guy like Cease, but I also realize there is quite a road ahead to become a major league starter. I’d personally be pretty torn on that deal and I’m actually supportive of going after Machado at the right price.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 12:47 PM) If reports that the Orioles want a couple of Major League ready pitchers, are true, Cease doesn't qualify. He isn't expected to arrive until 2019. Moreover, he is MLB Pipeline's 5TH ranked Sox prospect, which would not be consistent with Hahn's repeated assurances that "nothing has changed in terms of what we are trying to accomplish. We're very interested in adding premium young talent to what we've already built, but at the same time we're not going to rob Peter to pay Paul, if that makes sense. We are headed towards a bright future. We want to make moves that are going to enhance that, not necessarily take away from it." Therefore, I don't see Hahn letting Cease go. It seems more likely that something like 2 of the following might work: Fulmer, Stevens or Adams. Even then, I would be reluctant to include Fulmer. Fulmer & one of Adams/Stephens for Machado would be the dream deal as it would leave us with all our high pitching prospects. Plus if we end up losing him in free agency, we’d get a comp pick that would greatly offset the overall cost. I just can’t see the Orioles doing that deal though. I think the best offer for us that maybe they’d accept would be Cease & Fulmer.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 12:37 PM) No. Some major leaguers may be included and it isn’t kopech mincada. That’s all we know. Where didn’t this major leaguer(s) rumor come from? Saw people mention it on the Orioles board, but I haven’t seen the source of it anywhere. If true, I think Fulmer is all but a certainty of being in the deal. Could see us trying to sell high on him after his five games to end the season. I can’t imagine moving another major league piece unless they’ve soured on Lopez and I’d hate to see that.