Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 11:10 PM)

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:39 PM) Yes Who?

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 06:59 PM) Wat Lol

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 05:15 PM) Also anyone thinking the Sox can catch lightning in a bottle and make the playoffs is similiarly delusional. They need a bullpen badly and the starting pitching probably isn't up to snuff yet either. Has anyone actually said this?

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 05:07 PM) WE have no idea if Michael Kay is doing anything except just assuming he wants to be a yankee because all yankees people think everyone wants to be a yankee. Lol...love this post and so damn true.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 04:40 PM) Think of what the Sox had to give up for 1 year of Samardzija, and add some more. That is what their package must look like. Dick, I appreciate you as a fan & poster here. I think you know your s***. But right now, I think you’re arguing against no one. The debate isn’t whether or not the Orioles will take a moderate package from us, it’s whether or not we should do it. You’re probably right and ultimately someone offers up one pretty decent prospect to land Machado, but right now the rumor is we’re in the lead with a package that includes none of our top guys. If that’s the case, I have no problem with what Hahn is doing. If he gives up someone like Giolito, I’ll actually pretty be pissed. If he gives up Kopech, I’ll probably be posting from prison. I think most of us that are ok with potentially trading for Machado acknowledge that what we’d be ok with giving up more often than not wouldn’t be enough. But every once in a while the stars align a certain way where you get a guy for a sizable discount. And given we’re dealing with the Orioles, you simply never know. To me, it’s worth throwing our name in the hat and seeing if they bite on something unsubstantial.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:20 PM) You increase your chances tenfold when you buy 10 powerball tickets, yet it still doesn't work out most of the time. Lol...if the odds of landing Machado is as good as winning the Powerball then the mods should just shut down this thread. But without using ridiculous exaggerations, let’s say we have a 10% chance of signing him next offseason if we’re willing to match his best offer. If having him on the roster for the 2018 season improves our chance to let’s say 50%, again assuming we’re willing to match his best offer, does that seem like a value add? Debate the percentages all you like, but him getting to our players & organization will likely improve our chances of landing him. How much you pay for that benefit is also a good question, but there is most certainly a price I’d pay for it regardless if the Orioles would accept it or not.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:11 PM) So you answered the question. There is still going to be a FA battle for Machado. This exercise is not creative, it's destructive. You lessen your talent pool in 2019 so you can show a player how nice you are for a season. Then another team will come along and show how much nicer they actually are by offering more money, and you will be worse off than you are now. Now you’re just being purposely obtuse. Every single person in favor of acquiring him now also realizes we must match whatever offer he eventually gets. No one is suggesting a discount, yet you keep reverting back to this point. Letting him develop a bond with our coaches & players may create a tie-breaker if the financials are equal. I don’t know how else to explain this.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:03 PM) If this strategy is so sound, how come it is hardly ever used? Not by the White Sox, not by anyone. Bartolo Colon, Andruw Jones, Kevin Youkilis are a few guys the Sox picked up with a year or so on their deals. I know they tried to bring Colon and Youk back, but it didn't seem to work. Those guys went to other teams, where they had never played before. Luckily they didn't give up anything of significance for their services. That will be different in this case. A whiff is going to hurt, and the White Sox with a $300 million + free agent are like Adam Dunn with an 0-2 count vs. Randy Johnson in his prime. Because the didn’t offer as much money as the competition? That’s a requirement for this plan to work in the first place...

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 02:57 PM) No one would give you an absolute, I'm sure Hahn wouldn't. I'm sure he'd tell you, as he has told the media, that they think it would be easier than going in cold, i.e. increase their chances and not guarantee it. 100% this. No one here is saying it’s a slam dunk, it definitely wouldn’t be. It’s about improving their odds.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 02:13 PM) Yankees, Dodgers, same as the teams you worry about. Seattle gave him the best contract. That is what the White Sox will have to do with Machado, whether he plays the 2018 season for them or not. So just got to outbid the Yankees & Dodgers, two teams with unlimited amounts of money, by $65M or so! Seems like a flawless strategy!

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 02:10 PM) The deal is very similar to the Edwin deal. And Edwin was the far superior player.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 01:48 PM) That deal probably helps Abreu's valuation on the trade market. It also increases the cost of an Abreu extension.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 02:04 PM) And amazingly he signed with Seattle without ever playing there. What were the market dynamics at that time? Who else was involved in the bidding? How much extra did the Mariners have to offer?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 02:03 PM) Avi and Anderson. Get it done Hahn. No go on Anderson. Avi I have no issues at all including.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 12:31 PM) How do teams including the White Sox ever sign free agents if they need to play with them for a season to get the lay of the land? Won't these other teams you are worrying about have the same issue? What teams have traditionally signed all the major free agents? Pretty sure you’ll notice a trend. That’s not to say we can’t sign a major free agent, but trying to sign a generational talent like Machado will be an uphill battle given the demand and players involved. I’m willing to give up a small package of talent now if my odds increase significantly.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 12:20 PM) Left out of a ton of this conversation is whether it is a good idea for the White Sox franchise to pursue a free agent like Machado, who is predicted to end up with a $300-400 million contract over 10+ years. We all would love to have Machado, but I really wonder if it is in the club's best interest to sign a player to mega money for 10+ years, full NTC, multiple opt outs, etc. It looks like a great idea now, but paying a player $30-40 million when he is over ago 30 might not look so good. Thoughts? I fully expect any contract to have an opt-out after year four or five, so I’m not overly concerned about paying him into his 30’s. Our goal should be to maximize our competitive window of 2019 to 2023 and Machado should be in his prime all those years.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 12:09 PM) I can't believe you think having him play a non competitive season for the team will help the White Sox cause. The Dodgers have Seager and Turner at SS and 3B. The Yankees may or may not be in the market for a 3B next season. If the White Sox want to sign the player, they are going to have to offer him the most attractive deal. He can talk to Ricky Renteria during negotiations. They can put together a presentation. Better be a hell of a presentation if it can convey a human connection as well S six to eight months with actual people would. And I’m not sure Turner is going to prevent the Dodgers from pursuing a generational talent.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 12:03 PM) Does Machado not like the culture in Baltimore? They are unwilling to commit a $300M+ contract to him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 11:34 AM) If they aren't prepared to offer him the most cash, you have to admit the prospect he would be with the White Sox long term is minuscule, whether he goes to lunch with Ricky Renteria every day in 2018 or not. This I agree with. They have to be prepared to match any offer or at least offer fair market value like bmags implies (say $350M). If they’re expecting a discount they shouldn’t waste their time & prospects. I don’t believe they’re expecting a discount though.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 11:17 AM) So keeping your prospects and offering him the most cash next offseason is something that won't work? Machado without doubt, knows a lot of players who either play with the White Sox or have played for the White Sox. He will have an idea about "the culture" if he doesn't play in Chicago in 2018, and the White Sox try to sign him. There are other teams that plan on offering him the most cash as well. He’s going to be one of the most desired free agents in baseball history. I can’t believe you think it’s as simple as offering the most money when the Yankees & Dodgers will be involved. There will be multiple teams that likely end up in the same basic range by the end of the process. Again, his decision will likely come down to non-financial considerations. Our best bet of landing Machado is to form a bond with the player (this is more than just culture) and then be prepared to match any offer he receives. If we go in without that benefit, landing him is going to be an uphill battle.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:56 AM) Are there examples where this has worked in the past with top of the line guys? And if this will net you a guy like Machado, shouldn't the "right price" be pretty steep? I also think if the White Sox have to make this move, it is admitting they won't be the top bidders. KW was upset he wasn't given the opportunity to speak to Ohtani and convince him to take the White Sox $300k. Organizations that don't think money talks are kidding themselves. Playing for a 76-86 White Sox team in 2018 isn't going to convince him to sign with the team if the Sox offer isn't the highest or pretty damn close. Not exactly the same, but Cespedes took less money/years to stay with the Mets cause he liked it there. And no one is saying this will net you Machado, it’s also about improving your chances. The bidding process for Machado (and Harper) will be amongst the most competitive in baseball history. Again, to simply think you can outbid everyone on a potential $350M deal is crazy. The top bids will all likely be very close to one another. If the Sox aren’t prepared to go the distance financially, then trading for him now would be a fireable offense. But if they’re willing to match any offer, him forming a bond with Renteria & our players could give us an edge. And the W-L record won’t matter nearly as much if he can see the type of talent we have first hand. It’s no doubt a risk, but one worth taking at the right price IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:44 AM) If the White Sox are telling you they need him to check out everything before he hits free agency, and he will fall in love and sign an extension, they are also telling you they aren't going to be the highest offer if he gets to free agency. And he's getting to free agency. I have no idea how you’ve jumped to that conclusion. This is all about gaining an edge against the all other teams who also plan on leveraging the “outbid everyone” strategy. IMO, the Sox wouldn’t even entertain the idea of acquiring him if they weren’t prepared to go all-in in free agency for him.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:43 AM) Assuming Sox could offer something close to market value, or at least within 10% of it, what percentage do we think having Machado here for a year increases his likelihood of accepting our deal over others? I can't imagine it's more than 15% increase in the likelihood. So what would I pay for that 15% increase? It's real low. It's like Bernardo Flores low. Which is completely unfair to Baltimore because I'm not paying them at all for his 2018 production, which means essentially nothing. This is a great post. While I think our odds of signing improve by quite a bit more and would be willing to pay more accordingly, you’ve outlined the general idea perfectly. Everyone is entitled to debate how impactful the strategy would be, but it bothers me when people call it nonsensical. It’s only stupid if the team pays a price well above the fair value of the benefit.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:31 AM) I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me. You continue to ignore the fact that multiple teams will likely be making very similar offers. If it comes down to non-financial factors then him being familiar with our players & coaching staff could be the difference. Unfortunately since you’re unable to value that benefit with a basic formula, you’ve decided it’s essentially worth nothing. Thank god our front office isn’t as by the book as you and doesn’t assume the “outbid everyone” strategy alone is going to work when going up against teams like the Dodgers or Yankees. I applaud creativity and this is a smart strategy assuming the right price.