Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 3, 2016 -> 10:38 AM) If Lawrie stays healthy and is hitting by the ASB his second half salary is going to make him a pretty big commodity at the deadline Gotta disagree here. Lawrie is likely a 1 to 2 WAR player at this point. I'm ok with bringing him back as a depth piece at the price he agreed too, but my expectations are pretty low that he'll be worth anything of signicance by the deadline.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 3, 2016 -> 10:09 AM) I don't have a prediction but will be interesting to me on the lesser profile guys if traded if Sox look for higher upside younger players or players closer to majors. A guy like Jennings unlikely to get you a top 100 prospect, do you get a payer more likely to contribute at majors or a dynamic arm you like but is only 18-19? I really think Jennings is used as a sweetener in a larger deal. Like you said, he's not going to get us a high end prospect on his own, but his addition to a deal could greatly improve that the final piece coming back.

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 3, 2016 -> 09:09 AM) I've always liked the match up of Sale and Frazier to the Dodgers for a package of prospects. The Astros are going to hang on to Bregman, and the Sox are going to settle for quantity over quality. Hope I'm wrong. After that, Melky and Robertson seem like good candidates to go, with Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton as longshots. I've gone back and forth on this, but I ultimately think one team caves for Sale and gives up an untouchable. And my best guess is it's the Astros with Bregman. They have a young talented core in the majors locked up for the next three to four years, creating a strong competitive window right now. They have an incredibly deep farm system and giving up Bregman allows them to keep most of their other high end pieces (Martes, Tucker, etc). Assuming they sign EE or Beltran, they can afford to give up Bregman without causing too much damage on the offensive side. They desperately need an ace if they want to set themselves up as a dangerous postseason threat. And last but not least, they've never won a World Series and Luhnow probably feels a sense of urgency to make something happen now. For all these reasons, I think the Astros end up giving up Bregman.

Sale & Jennings to the Astros for Bregman, Reed, Paulino, Fisher, & Moran. Robertson to the Red Sox for Swihart & Ball. Frazier to the Dodgers for Verdugo & Beurhler.

We're still a day away from the Winter Meetings and I'm dying for some baseball rumors. To overcome what will be the longest 24 hours ever, I thought we could take a crack at what moves Hahn will make during this year's meetings. Let me be clear, this isn't about who you want traded and who you would like coming back. This thread is simply meant to guess the most likely/realistic trades than Hahn will execute between now and December 8th.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 3, 2016 -> 07:23 AM) Indeed he would. But I don't think Rizzo would do that for Eaton or McCutchen. Frankly I don't think Rizzo would do it for Sale. Peddling Eaton over Abreu surprises me. They must just like Abreu or maybe they think they can really can get a 6 WAR return for Eaton. I'm good with a handful of high ceiling A ballers to replace a, say, 50-100 prospect. I look at Hahn's record and the best part of the Peavy trade were the A ballers. He also dumped Beckham for a legitimate A ball prospect (whom he subsequently squandered for a AAAA reliever). Or maybe they simply think Eaton is at peak value and Abreu's value can improve significantly with a strong first half next year. If Abreu's second half is any indication, his value has nowhere to go but up.

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 07:35 PM) My point was that Donaldson wasn't good in the Majors until age 27. He simply struggled in the Minors before making a change compared to Avi, who's been struggling on the big stage in the Majors. Check out Edwin's numbers in 2009 and 2010. Everyone and their mother was calling him a bust. Until he made a change. Albeit he had some success in the Majors previously. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 07:36 PM) Avi most likely sucks, but when those guys were Avi's age, their MLB stats were far worse. It would take a miracle for him to get to their level with the bat. But the Sox are due for something working out. I get the age factor and even the lack of minor league seasoning, but like I said he's shown no progress. After 1,500 career plate appearances, I just don't see it happening. Anything is possible, but the odds are incredibly against Avi ever becoming an above average hitter at this point.

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 07:15 PM) Donaldson, Justin Turner, Encarnacion Donaldson put up a .884 OPS in his second full season which was in Oakland to boot. Turner put up an .897 OPS in his full season with the Dodgers and was still below a 1,000 plate appearances entering that season. Both of these guys provide defensive utility. Encarnacion, a better positional comp, put up a .831 OPS in his second season. Honestly, none of these are good comparisons to Avi's situation.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 07:09 PM) Jose Bautista. But it is pretty rare. That's probably the best example out there. I honestly can't think of a second player that comes close. Just shows how rare it is for a player to suddenly break-out in their 4th year.

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 06:23 PM) Age:25 Years with a completely revamped swing that doesn't blow d*** : 1 2nd half OPS in the first year with a new swing: .840, as another poster mentioned. Salary: an absurd 3 million Plenty of talented players don't bust out at age 25 or before. Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Justin Turner, etc. Do I think he is going to become a stud all of a sudden. Most likely no. The only reason I'm defending Avi is the such strong hate that he's getting everywhere. You hate him cause he's sucked in his time so far with the Sox? Fine. Take your emotions out of it. He's making peanuts on a loser team with no one blocking him, and a world of potential. The fact that some people think players aren't s*** unless they're good instantly is absurd and short sighted. That is one of the reasons why the White Sox are so bad at player development. Sometimes, development happens to take a bit of time. Especially raw players who are rushed by clubs like Detroit and the Sox. I would be right with you guys if he was making double his 3 million/if we were a competitive team/if a legitimate player was blocking him at DH. None of those things happen to be true. I'm all for the age argument if he had shown some progress but he simply hasn't. Look at the stats I provided, he was just as bad last year as he's ever been. 1,500 plate appearances are typically enough time to judge a player who has not improved in the slightest. And I don't buy this 2nd half argument. Below are his plate appearances and OPS by month last year. Apr: 79 / .691 May: 82 / .720 Jun: 87 / .578 Jul: 55 / .585 Aug: 50 / 1.020 Sep: 100 / .656 Outside of a flukey 50 plate appearances in August, he was bad in every other month including July & September. At this point the physical tools don't matter anymore, every piece of objective data suggests he is the same old horrible baseball player he's always been, exit velocity be damned. I'd love you to provide a single example of a player who was a sub-.700 career OPS hitter across three full seasons while providing negative defensive or base-running value that was given a fourth season and suddenly figured it out.

Eaton for Giolito, Robles, & Lopez. Who says no, Hahn or Rizzo? I know I'd take that trade in a heartbeat if I was Hahn. Doubt very much Rizzo would take it.

QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 05:31 PM) Yeah, having hope for a 25 year old former top prospect with insane power potential as a DH on a rebuilding team is insane! Insane I tell ya! Career: 1,551 PA's, 89 wRC+, .695 OPS 2016: 453 PA's, 86 wRC+, .692 OPS Sane teams wouldn't give the above player another 500+ plate appearances and expect a different result at this point. I'd actually be pretty pissed right now if I wasn't confident a rebuilding is coming and the fact we can always cut ties with him before the season starts if something better comes along.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 01:16 PM) My word is soft right now haha. But the the one thing I would say that isn't really talked about much is that I'd expect Dan Jennings to go this offseason. Supposedly garnering a lot of interest. Jennings was my pick to go first this offseason.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 06:54 AM) New Zelda teaser This game could be the GOAT. I was actually a little worried based on the E3 vidoes that the game might have a big open world but be a boring mess. However, there appears to be a lot more depth to this game than they originally let on, they're just trying to not give too much away (should have been obvious to me). Easily my most anticipated game for 2017.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 2, 2016 -> 06:13 AM) I just can't see a team giving Avi his arb figure. If you absolutely must bring him back, is there any restriction on resigning him to a lower figureafter non tendering? I don't believe so, which is why there's no reason to tender him.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 1, 2016 -> 07:45 AM) There are no 1st round picks given up for signing QO Free Agents anymore. For example, if Dodgers signed Frazier to a 4/70 deal next year, they'd forfeit their 2nd and 5th round pick to do so. It's not clear which pick the White Sox would receive in return but it sounds like a 2nd for tax teams and 3rd for non-tax teams. This will spur trading because most teams would rather have the prospects than the 3rd round draft pick. So when they said "market size" they were referring to tax & non-tax teams? Obviously that would be a lot better for us. Also, you must have part of it backwards right? Wouldn't a tax team get a lesser pick for losing a QO free agent?

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 1, 2016 -> 06:59 AM) I don't see how dodgers can justify giving away all of their cheap near MLB talent for Sale after this CBA. They should also want to win while they have Kershaw (and in his prime). He can opt-out of his contract after the 2018 season. Obviously they shouldn't completely gut their system, but they are so deep that can add Sale and still have a solid farm system. And the new CBA will not prevent them from spending $250M+ regularly. If anyone can afford huge luxury taxes it's the Dodgers with their $300/year TV deal.

QUOTE (Deadpool @ Dec 1, 2016 -> 04:27 AM) That Trump University education keeps paying dividends, doesn't it? Go figure out the difference between owning a sports franchise and owning a business. That kindergarten horse manure doesn't hold up. Dude, you simply need to STFU and leave this board for good. Whether you're a Cubs fan or not, I think everyone here can agree you're condescending as f*** and bring a combative attitude to discussions. You constantly talk down to posters like you are better than them and can never admit when you're wrong (see post above). Do us all a favor and go away.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 1, 2016 -> 02:17 AM) It probably means when Frazier signs elsewhere for $50M+, because he will. Instead of receiving a comp pick after the 1st RD, it may be a comp pick after the 2nd RD, or whatever they deem the "market size" penalty to be. Which means keeping Frazier and collecting the QO probably doesn't do much for us, as a pick in the early 30s is far more exciting than a pick in the late 60s. That and we lose leverage when negotiating with a team like the Dodgers who wouldn't collect first round pick either.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 30, 2016 -> 09:45 PM) Really screws white Sox, also players can only receive a QO once Well we just lost some leverage in a potential Frazier trade. Amazing how we continue to get f***ed by this market size stuff.

Do teams still get picks for losing free agents? If so, is it still a 1st rounder? Just wondering how this new CBA will impact Frazier's trade value.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Nov 30, 2016 -> 08:07 PM) Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 2m2 minutes ago No international draft, but int'l signings are said to be capped to 5-6M per team per year. That would be huge for us assuming no loopholes.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Nov 30, 2016 -> 07:41 PM) Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m1 minute ago Sources: Deal for new CBA is close, could happen tonight. Because of course. Thank the love of god. Would have sucked big time if the Winter Meetings got cancelled.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Nov 30, 2016 -> 12:08 PM) Honestly, I think both should be tendered if they trade Sale. They'll have to field a team somehow, and there's a slim chance that either of them could take the next step forward and get flipped for prospects as opposed to being cut for nothing. It's not that much money anyway. I'd much rather spend that money on bullpen arms that can be flipped or an international free agent that does not count against bonus pools. Garcia could always be brought back at a cheaper rate if we don't find a better DH option. And I'd rather give Saladino 600 ABs in a lost season than hope I can get something insignificant for Lawrie at the trade deadline.

I think it's impossible to separate Reinsdorf's direction/influence vs. KW's production. We know Jerry meddles, with known examples include forcing the front office to keep Ozzie and forcing them to go with the rotating DH disaster that turned out to be Kotsay. I'm sure there are plenty of other instances, especially on the people side where his unwavering loyalty has surely been an issue. And more importantly, we know for a fact he hasn't allowed for a legit rebuild in recent years when one was probably needed, which would be fine if he actually gave his front office the financial resources needed to build a winner. That being said, I think KW's ego has gotten the best of him recently. He used to make some terrific moves, picking up undervalued assets on the regular. Just seems like we're making a lot less of those moves nowadays. Seems like our scouting has fallen off quite a bit under his watch, especially the pro scouting team. While I don't necessarily blame him for the Wilder fiasco, he must wield some responsibly for allowing the system to completely rot for an unacceptable period of time. He deserves a ton of credit for that 2005 team, but I think it's officially time for a chance.