Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Hawkfan @ Jan 15, 2016 -> 05:56 AM) Wow. That seems cheap. It's actually slightly above what mlbtraderumors was projecting.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 07:24 PM) I think a 5 year deal would be a mistake for a player that inconsistent. But with an AAV of $18M or less? We're talking about a guy with a 3 WAR floor if he's not forced to play CF. I get his 2015 was an outlier, but the hypothetical Baltimore deal isn't paying him to be a 6+ WAR player, it's paying him to be a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. Honestly, at that price who cares about a 5th year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:35 PM) Anyone ever think there might be a reason so many teams only want him on short deal? Because there aren't a lot of teams with cash desperate for an OF? Also, it's much easier to convince your owner to go over their budget on a 1 or 2 year deal.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:27 PM) I'll be pissed. But not as pissed as I probably would have been a few weeks ago. What's changed over the past few weeks? Anything less than 5/$90M for Cespedes would be a steal. The Sox not doing that deal would be a complete joke and would mean this 3 year nonsense was probably legit. And let me state for the record that I believe the 3 year deal stuff to be posturing. Just saying I will pissed if we have a chance to take advantage of a crazy buyers' market and decide to pass for whatever stupid reason.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 06:19 PM) "ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. He also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/orio...s-cespedes.html I will say this, if the Orioles land Cespedes for a contract in that range, then I'm going to f***ing enraged.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 07:53 AM) I go back and forth about being optimistic, but the article does make me feel better. No matter what, though, if the Sox were to sign Cespedes (or Upton for that matter), the 2016 payroll will be one of the highest ever for the team. I would imagine the Sox would be willing to have a higher payroll this year knowing that $29 million is coming off the books next year. That is, however, all dependent on what kind of deals Cespedes and Upton ultimately get. As each day goes by it looks more and more like they will end up with shorter deals, but you never know. The Sox had a $128M payroll in 2011, which was before the big national TV money kicked in. I'm confident they can match that figure next year. If Reinsdorf is willing to go above that threshold just a little bit and Cespedes is willing to take a slightly back-loaded deal, I truly believe we can make the financials work.

After hearing Benetti in that interview, I am extremely excited about his addition. Will be fun having two pairings and getting to contrast our old sound to our new one.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 14, 2016 -> 12:35 AM) I really like this writeup by Jesse Spector. http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb-news/46911...ite-sox-indians Yup, that article pretty much sums up the situation perfectly and IMO shows why the Sox are in a good spot. Very few teams with OF needs actually have the resources to land Cespedes or Upton at this point in time. While we all go back and forth on how much budget the Sox have left, I strongly believe they have the resources to sign one of these guys as long as the terms aren't ridiculous. Given how the market is playing out, I really think that will be the case. No reason not to be optimistic.

I like the Baseball America list way better.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 09:15 AM) Every possible result of a plate appearance has a number of runs it creates based on historical data. This table is dated I'm sure, but it shows that a homer adds an linear weighted average of 1.409 runs, a triple 1.063 runs, etc. Add up all a team's outcomes in a season and you can find how many runs it "should have" scored. If they scored more than that, they had good cluster luck. The same thing can be done on the pitching side. A team could put up a single, two walks, and a homer in an inning, but depending on the sequencing they could end up with between one and four runs. It could have only nine hits in a game, all doubles, and could get anywhere from zero to nine runs from them. Linear weights removes the context and just gives each outcome a number. I would think a team that strikes out less should have a higher batting average, so yeah. So I guess my beef is calling it luck. Get a team full of high-contact, high AVG hitters and it's no longer luck, as you've basically put a hedge in place to reduce the randomness of sequencing. This is one of the flaws with linear weights, as it completely ignores context when in reality it's incredibly important.

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 11:03 PM) Blackmon's career away splits (Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS): .241/.283/.370/.653 Not sure how well that'd translate to the AL and to anyplace that isn't Coors. I don't get the Blackmon love at all. He's a league average hitter who plays below average defense. Throw in the Coors Field risk and I'm not sure what the big draw is.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 06:09 AM) So this guy is doing all Sox home games when Hawk isn't there? I've never heard his voice before, but damn, he can't be any worse than Swirsky. Yeah, impossible to judge him just yet, but I like they got a legit PbP guy and he should definitely be better than Swirsky, who got really annoying by the end of his test run.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 06:12 AM) The two years if they did that would be make or break decision time on a complete rebuild or fortifying a playoff team after 2017. Right now, all the additions are geared towards that window of 2016-17. You bring up the logical concern...with no "bridge" to 2018 and 2019 at the current moment, other than Anderson/Fulmer/Adams...they're left with no clear direction if they don't sign anyone to a longer-term deal. Maybe there's still too much uncertainty internally about whether those three minor leaguers added to the current core are enough to justify adding a Desmond, Upton or Cespedes to a 3-5 year contract. My concern is the free agent class after the 2017 season isn't supposed to be very good, so you may have to rely on internal options to fill these spots. Say we add GarGo and end up losing him, Frazier, Melky, & Lawrie in two years. Does anyone feel comfortable trying to compete with two of May, Engel, & Hawkins in the OF, plus Michalczewski at 3B and who the f*** knows at 2B? I know I don't. And I agree in two years it's make or break time, as we can still get a huge package for Sale at that time if things go south between now and then. However, even if we decide to sell of pieces, is it really the end of the world having Cespedes on the books for two more years? Best case scenario you trade him for some prospects, worst case scenario he is dead salary for a team not trying to compete. Making roster decisions that fit squarely into a two year window is beyond stupid and I really hope the Sox aren't thinking this way.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 11:08 PM) With our moves this offseason, CarGo makes a lot of sense considering he has 2 years left. If we could get him for Avi and Adams? I'd probably do it. I really like Adams but he's not even close to contributing. I still would hate to give him up. I don't get this logic at all. Why would it make more sense to add another guy who will be a free agent in two years when we already have three in Frazier, Melky, & Lawrie? How in the world do you think we're going to fill all these holes? And if it's with prospects, then kiss the 2018 season goodbye and maybe even 2019, which are Sale's last two years of control. Most of our pitching staff including all our key starters our locked up for the next four years. The only reason our window will be two years is because we'll have no one left on the position player at that point if we keep adding guys with two years of control.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 08:27 PM) Awful article by Levine. Avi wouldn't be the main piece, it would be Q or Rodon I'm sorry, but in what world is CarGo worth anything close to Q & Rodon? They may have asked for Q originally but it was a stupid ask then and it would be an ever dumber ask now.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 07:45 PM) It seems that if there are 6-7 credible possibilities for Chris Davis, the market for Cespedes and Upton should be just as wide open, especially for American League teams who can rotate at DH as well. I suppose it also depends for most of those teams how confident they actually are sticking Davis at a corner outfield spot for a year or two (eg. Detroit/Texas). Then we still don't know exactly how many teams are going to be drawn into a one-year deal for Upton...and how much of this 2 or 3 year/opt-out versus a 5 year guaranteed deal on Cespedes is gumming up the mix. Who the hell are these six to seven credible suitors for Davis?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 02:35 PM) I think I have seen Toy Story 3 approximately 50 times I have seen each of them probably 40 times or more. Thank god they're good movies, because the kid makes us watch them non-stop.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 07:02 PM) SO where are we getting the money to sign even a Dexter Fowler? Payroll is basically sitting at $115 right now, even if Reinsdorf approves a $125 million payroll, that's only 10 million extra to utilize. Seems like a big outfielder was a pipe dream dependent on another pipe dream--finding a taker for the awful contracts of either Danks or Laroche. Hope we aren't Avi or bust in RF... I think it means the budget is closer to $130M or we wouldn't even be considering Cespedes, creativity or not.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 10:45 AM) FWIW KC led baseball in "cluster luck" last year. https://thepowerrank.com/cluster-luck/ Their rotation is still awful, they've lost a couple key bullpen pieces, they have a black hole at 2B, and it's very likely we'll see regression from Cain, Morales, Hosmer, and Moustakas (him in particular because he's never come close to hitting that well before), and Escobar and Dyson can't hit. I do think the projections are harsh on them (I don't think WAR accurately represents relievers' value yet, and the defensive metrics for WAR are not particularly reliable either, especially for projections), but I agree with raBBit and the projections that Cleveland is currently the team to beat in the ALC. How do you measure cluster luck? And wouldn't a team that strikes out infrequently be more likely to string hits together frequently?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 12:43 AM) Apparently Eaton really wants to be there, but they won't let him? Seems odd. Not speculating on anything suspicious happening, just figured most players do this because they have to, whereas Eaton seems he really wants to. Where are you seeing this?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 07:48 PM) Rich Coutinho ‏@coutinho9 4h4 hours ago To me if Cespedes options are dwindling (maybe Chisox Angels, poss O's if Davis does not sign there) Mets should pounce on it 2 years $30M (Mets ESPN beat reporter ^) Lol at this guy thinking 2/$30M would get it done. Maybe if he's desperate he'd take 2/$50M or a bit less, but that dude is off on Cespedes' likely AAV by 50% or more.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 05:19 PM) I have to say, that has to be awkward if you are Garcia to see your teammate actively speak of replacing you. Shows how bad Avi really is.

Parra has been bad the past two seasons and has far less of a track record than Span. No way do I see him getting more than Denard, let alone $14M to $16M per year. An AAV somewhere between $9M & $10M sounds about right to me.

Predictions on his contract? I'll say 3/$28M.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 11, 2016 -> 12:13 PM) I will say, it's very weird to see the secondary market dropping into place before the top end settles. The Angels signing Parra would be good for the Sox's chances of landing an upgrade. Because Cespedes & Upton are both desperate for Baltimore to enter the mix to maximize their dollars. The second tier guys that are smart aren't going to wait for Davis to make up his mind or else they might be out of a multi-year job.