Chicago White Sox

I think some might, but I think the greater injury risk with pitchers would cause most to go with the similarly talented positional guys.

I think Ortiz is a fairly nice prospect and for a while I really thought a Kjerstad + Ortiz + 3rd piece (~45 FV guy) was a win-win trade for both sides. But upon further reflection, the age issue does bother me quite a bit and I don’t see him having a big ceiling. I think there is a chance, even a good one, that he could become a 2 win SS for like a four year stretch. But that doesn’t just move the needle for us given where we’re currently at and I’d rather have someone like Beavers who could see his status really elevate with a strong 2024 season.

Prospect lists are incredibly volatile and looking at one from even a few months ago is already vastly outdated. For example, Noah Schultz jumped all the way up to 31st on BA’s mid-season list. I’d wager he’ll be a 55 FV prospect or higher when Fangraphs updates their White Sox list. While he’s still far off and a lot could go wrong, we’re talking about truly premium stuff & ace like potential. Even a GM in need of a major league ready SS would take Schultz over Ortiz because they’d be able to flip him for something better one way or the other.

This is just silly. What makes a better prospect? Is a high variance, high ceiling guy more valuable than a low ceiling, high floor guy? Is an older prospect who requires less development time in the majors but who might start regressing during a team’s control period more or less valuable than a younger, more raw prospect that might take a full year or two before being productive? How much value does MLB Pipeline place on a prospect’s proximity to the majors? How do they account for the inherent injury risk of pitchers vs. position players? If you are going to use these rankings as black & white, it would at least be good to understand these unwritten rules on how we’re supposed to value prospects.

I’ve told you guys I’d rank Ortiz much closer to the back end of the top 100 because of his age and lack of ceiling. Many of your brethren were very angry with me for suggesting that, but I simply don’t think he holds the value that other prospects in the 50’s do, at least not to a team like us that need potential difference makers.

I’ve told them on their site that they either need to give Ortiz the starting 2B job or trade him for something else that can help (not necessarily Cease), because a 26 year old without any major league success quickly erodes value.

Our top five would be the following IMO: Colson Montgomery, SS (60 FV) Noah Schultz, LHP (55 FV) Edgar Quero, CA (50 FV) Bryan Ramos, 3B (50 FV) Nick Nastrini, RHP (50 FV) Norby doesn’t have a position and I have seen this profile fail all too many times before (see Willie Calhoun for example). Bradfield is a fine prospect but one without any upper minors experience. I do like Beavers a lot, probably more than most of your prospects outside your top 5. But gun to head, I’d slot Ortiz in after Quero and Beavers in after Ramos or Nastrini. Norby would be outside my top 10…just not a fan. The bulk of these guys are solid prospects, but 50 FV guys bust at incredibly high rates and Getz will want one 55 FV or higher prospect to headline the deal.

Hopefully there is no vesting element

And I think that’s why people are getting upset with Sports Guy here. I would agree that Mayo and especially Basallo are far less likely to be moved, but it seems crazy to call them completely untouchables like say Holliday. At the end of the day, the market will dictate the cost and it will be up to Elias to decide how aggressive he wants to be. His track record may suggest he won’t move the highest end guys, but if you guys are still mix it suggests that he’s willing to give up more than Ortiz & scraps.

I watched part of it, just easier to f*** around on Soxtalk while the kids watch the Trolls movie for the 50th time than it is to watch a podcast

It may be but that’s the market for potentially elite talent

I think you guys have elevated these prospects to levels above their true worth. If you were to exclude your top five, I think Joey Ortiz is the only one who would be in our top five. Norby & Povich in particular are so overrated by you guys it’s not even funny. And the bulk of your fans don’t have any sense of expected bust rates for this next tier of prospects…which is incredibly high and makes them much less valuable than you think.

I mean, a pitcher with multiple red flags just got the highest contact in baseball history for a pitcher based on theoretical ceiling alone.

Of course there are. A drop in fastball velocity and a change in his slider shape are causes for concern. But I also believe he dealt with some mechanical issues last year and I have followed him to know his work ethic & desire to be great is second to none. I fully expect him to be significantly better in 2024 but there are no guarantees obviously. But very few pitchers in baseball provide the mix of floor and ceiling that he does and that will likely result in an acquisition cost well above what his 2023 results would suggest.

I can because the math isn’t within a margin of error of making any sense. And very rarely do I not caveat my points with probably or likely to highlight what is my opinion, even if I feel very confidently about something.

Teams aren’t stupid and know what a s%*# show the squad was last year. And they can go on Statcast and see Dylan Cease was hurt more by a s%*# defense than almost any other SP (which ERA+ doesn’t account for). They will pay for expected go-forward performance and not the prior season’s results. And come on with this playoff experience bullshit…you know the sample size isn’t material enough to draw any conclusions from for any player. Having said that, teams typically want SPs with plus stuff who can actually K opponents. I have literally seen you make this very point at the Hangout, which is why you are one of the biggest proponents for him over there.

I think this needs to be said and said very explicitly. Cease wasn’t great in 2023 while he was elite in 2022. We all know this. In a normal market, he’d probably be worth somewhere right in the middle (think #2 starter value). However, this is not a normal market. The demand for high-end SP is out-of-fucking-control and the supply just isn’t there. Teams are desperate and that’s resulting in a massive premium for the few quality arms available in free agency and trade. My guess is that most GMs see Dylan Cease as an extremely durable SP with elite stuff who can likely be fixed with minimal coaching & adjustments. Again, in a normal market you’d ideally pay the price of a #2 starter (which assumes some projection) and hope you end up with ace production given there are no guarantees. Unfortunately in this market, teams will likely have to include a substantial amount of the expected improvement into the purchase price. I’m not suggesting you will get Cy Young type value in return, but it’s clear by now teams won’t be able to use 2023 to get Cease on a discount.

No because that’s like trading $60 for $10. Trading Cease for Mayo would be like trading $60 for $40, so would still need more to be even.

I guess that feels about right then

Is he really that young? I think he said his kid is going to college next year, I’d imagine he is older than he looks.

You think he’d get less than Montgomery? I think 7/$175M+ is far more likely.

I meant the Mariners…the Orioles’ dream of Miller or Woo for Santander & Urias may have hit a snag

I know teams aren’t afraid to make make major commitments nowadays, but those massive contracts are usually limited to truly elite players where they should be very good with some level of drop-off. I’d have nightmares being married to Snell & Montgomery for the next seven years at huge AAVs.

Check that…I bet they’d make DeSclafani available. He’d fit in perfectly with Kremer, Means, Irvin, & Wells.

Robbie Ray to the Giants…doubt they are trading more pitching.