Chicago White Sox

Trading a guy who was a star up to last season for a post-hype prospect and a 45 FV kid who projects to be a utility guy in the majors makes us deeper?

It’s amazing how many ways you can try to spin this thing. From 2020 to 2023, Robert put up 12.0 fWAR to Bellinger’s 6.5. He was nearly 2x more productive than Bellinger despite 10% less plate appearances. And even in your beloved “Bellinger was 10th in NL MVP voting” season Robert outperformed him by half a win. Full stop, Robert has been the better player since arriving in the majors until last year. I don’t even know what you’re arguing at this point because your story doesn’t hold without massive levels of spin. If you want to assume 2024 is the new version of Robert moving forward, then I’m not sure there is anything to debate. I believe both you and Balta both did this same garbage with Cease coming off his 2023 season and those pessimistic takes were both quickly proven wrong last year. I strongly believe the same will happen with Robert in 2025 and hopefully Getz doesn’t overreact to a single bad season and sell low for a bunch of crap that won’t move the needle.

It fucking blows my mind that you are pretending players aren’t capable of having a bad year. The dude you are desperately trying to hype up as Robert’s equal put up -1.0 fWAR in 2021. He’s averaged 2.7 fWAR per season since then. There are endless examples like this. Again, context matters and if can’t see the obvious reasons why Robert may have underperformed last year then it’s clear to me you are looking for reasons to hate on him.

What offends me is you thinking Robert is suddenly a sub 1 win player because “he lost the tiniest amount of athleticism”. Like is that a real take or are you just looking for an outlet to unleash more negativity? Because if it’s the former, it’s one of the more laughable takes I have seen on this board, up there with “we should move Timmy to catcher.”

Let’s do a ban bet Ron style. If Robert posts less than 1 fWAR next year, I will accept a one year ban from this board. If he produces above 1 fWAR, you take on a one year ban. That work for you? Clearly we aren’t going to convince the other of our opinions on this topic, so instead of recycling the same argument over & over again and polluting the broader discussion on the board, let’s put some skin in the game and let Robert settle this once and for all.

Yes, that’s the argument from the anti Robert crowd. That we must move him now for low certainty / low impact prospects or else we will likely end up with nothing come the trade deadline. All because Robert had a 2024 season in which he was likely never healthy and was playing for a historically bad club, with a completely incompetent manager, and no offense around him at all.

So you think 2024 is the go forward expectation for Robert and not the dude from 2020 to 2023?

Arbitrarily picking the last two seasons is what I’m talking about. Like why not go back to 2020 when Luis first came up? Robert put up 7.1 fWAR from 2020 to 2022, while Bellinger put up 2.1 fWAR. That’s 3.4x the production despite ~20% less plate appearances. But hey, if we exclude those years and anchor off the 2024 season, we can craft a much better anti-Robert, pro Bellinger narrative. And by the way, Bellinger got his current contract after a really strong 2023 season. While he wasn’t bad last year, he regressed tremendously and he was arguably not worth his $25M salary as a 2 to 2.5 win player. If he returns to his 2023 form, he’d have surplus value and would likely opt out of his final year of the contract. The reality though is that 2023 looks like an outlier for him and the market has reacted accordingly. Not sure what any of this has to do with Luis Robert though.

This is exactly what I’m talking about. You constantly find a single data point, ignore all context, and use it to aid your extremely biased positions. Bellinger came in 10th place in NL MVP voting in 2023…Robert came in 12 place in AL MVP voting that same year. There is basically no difference in those results. Additionally, Robert played for a terrible, 61 win team, whereas Bellinger played for a team that was basically in playoff contention until the end of the season. That makes a huge difference when it comes to MVP voting, but again, something you conveniently leave off the table because it doesn’t support your views.

Your point being what?

Sean Anderson called out the CEO of his company for his comments about why this happened, but also acknowledged that Jerry played a major role in this.

I don’t see how the positional group could be viewed as being worse than the one that put up -6.4 of fWAR last year. Robert will almost certainly be better. Tauchman/Slater is replacing a RF group that put up -2.1 fWAR. The catching group will likely be improved vs. the one that put -2.4 fWAR. We have a ton of options for 3B & 2B that project to be second division regulars. And gun to head, Vaughn should be a little bit better than last year. Hopefully Benintendi will also be a little bit better as well. Again, this will be a bad positional group, but last year was terrible with dudes called up who were well below replacement level.

He ranks 8th and they have a 45 FV prospect now.

You have repeatedly said Robert has little value and that we must get rid of him soon or else we’ll likely end up with nothing. And I definitely disagree with you on your valuation of Baty & Acuna. They would be solid secondary pieces, but neither is a fair headliner for a talent like Robert IMO.

See, you keep doing this. Pick random stat that supports your biased view of players and ignore all context. Again, we’re talking about 40 plate appearances with a wOBA nearly 100 points above his xwOBA and as ISO well over 100% above his minor league norms. But hey, who cares about his struggles in AAA when can the SSS in the majors to override it!

I’ve never once called Acuna a worthless asset, but his outlook and value is certainly suppressed after a rough 2024. As for Robert, I just outlined how good of a player he was in the majors prior to the 2024 season. It’s far easier to believe a guy with a track record of success in the majors will perform at that level again after a single rough season vs. the prospect who has never been successful at the level he failed at.

I’m sorry, but when you have a product line that’s not financially viable most companies will cut it. Covering the White Sox isn’t good business right now. If it was, then enough people would stop buying subscriptions and the broader business would go under. And like we saw with the Tribune and Athletic, both of those publications have kept on chugging without a White Sox beat writer. I will not defend firing people a week before Christmas and I do not support general corporate greed, but you also can’t point to every business decision and blame it on management being incompetent. Unfortunately, the external environment does impact how a company will need to operate and Jerry running this franchise into the ground has made it harder to cover the team.

No, I look at everything, although I don’t put much weight on 40 major league plate appearances where is wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by nearly 100 points. My point was you only look at Robert’s 2024 and say he’s a worthless asset, but don’t do the same for Acuna who is coming off a very rough AAA season and instead try to anchor off a 40 plate appearance sample in the majors. The reality is that Luis Robert has been a 4.75 fWAR per 600 plate appearances type player prior to last season. There is no arguing against the injury history, but the bulk of the time missed is related to two hip flexor injuries. Regardless, there is certainly a high risk of some missed playing time with him. But hell, if he can give you even 450 plate appearances you’re probably looking at a 3.5 win player which is more or less a top 7 CF. And that’s super valuable when you consider a guy like Tyler O’Neil just got 3/$50M despite his own injury history. Ultimately, I’m not going to trade a guy who I believe will be a 3+ win player next year for a guy who has failed in the majors over a 600 PA sample and a prospect coming off a really rough 2024 season. I need much more of a sure thing if I’m dealing Robert right now…otherwise hold until the deadline and hopefully do better.

It’s absolutely wild that you’re saying we’re overvaluing a dude who put up 4.8 fWAR two years ago while hyping up a Mets prospect who put up a 69 wRC+ in AAA last year.

Let me know when he puts up a 4.8 fWAR win season

I love this justification, but the pure hatred you have for Robert

They weren’t isolated, but the Sox were most impacted

Did you see his 2024 season?

Did those teams lose 2/3 of their staff?

Fully disagree here. We have gotten to the point where major publications and local newspapers can’t justify supporting a beat writer for the Sox in the third largest media market in the country. That’s 100% on Jerry for allowing the product to fall off like this. So yeah, he’s not to be blamed for firing dudes the week before Christmas, but he’s made it financially unviable for many publications to cover this team.