Chicago White Sox

I think that $40M surplus value is too low. IMO, he’s a 4 win pitcher and worst case scenario you’re looking at (8 x $9M) - $20M = $52M. Throw in the strong possibility of a QO compensation pick when he leaves and the general scarcity of quality SP and I think you’re looking at $60M easily in expected surplus value.

Random thought, but I think the Sox should sign Kyle Lewis to small major league contract. We have zero OF depth and while I hope we can acquire a potential RF via a Cease trade, it would be great have a cheap placeholder like Lewis who can also be part of the DH mix if Eloy were traded and worst case is a bench piece. The Dbacks non-tendered him vs. paying him like $1.7M, so we are talking dirt cheap and he’d come with three years of potential control if he performed well. I see zero downside from such a move.

Yes, I think the Dodgers are driving a big chunk of the SP market and it seems like with Ohtani locked up we’re starting to see a greater sense of urgency. I’m not expecting a trade or anything today, but I believe we’ll start hearing more leaks & rumors as teams begin making more serious offers.

Also, as much as I want the Orioles to happen, I think Cease ends up on the Dodgers. Ohtani’s deal gives them more flexibility, but not endless and Dylan’s cheap salary allows them to pair it with another impactful move.

I think we start seeing things heating up today.

His value is eroding because of his age. No different than Joey Ortiz with the Orioles, either you find a spot for these guys or trade them. A 27 year old AAA prospect is worth less than a 26 year vs. a 25 year old and so on.

The original report says “on the verge”. Rosenthal has since confirmed legit discussions, but MLB Nerds definitely made it seem like something was close.

Worrisome for Busch? I don’t follow.

Ohtani can opt-out at the end of any given season if there is a change in ownership or if Friedman. Andrew just got himself some leverage when negotiating future contracts…lol.

I may be in the minority, but I’d want Busch as part of a deal but at a relative discount given his age and lack of position. Obviously Rushing is the more interesting prospect, but I think he’d weigh down the rest of the package quite a bit. I think LA realizes that Busch is eroding value and will be looking to cash in even if they don’t get blue chip value for him.

Also, the longer this Glasnow trade takes, the more it looks like misdirection (or greatly exaggerated certainty) from the Dodgers to aid in Cease negotiations.

What happened to that random Antifa post? Am I crazy or has it been deleted?

He’s confusing you with Balta

I think the prevailing theory there is that since Cease is from Georgia he might be willing to agree to an extension. Obviously that may be total BS given he is ultimately a Boras client, but perhaps there is some merit there.

Arozarena not part of discussions per Marc Topkin

Fully agree. Turning Cease into multiple controllable assets is critical to the mid-term future of the club. Obviously you still need to get a strong package, but don’t hold off for perfection if it can be avoided.

An article from today he lists Braves as likely landing point. Why would this be out of character for AA out of curiosity?

Fathom is almost certainly right about this trade being likely (especially with Rosenthal reporting it), but the question is why did this Glasnow stuff leak ahead of time. And why is Nightengale pumping the Braves as a likely landing point concurrently. If you believe that all info out there is purposeful, then it suggests a game of chicken for Cease between the Sox & Dodgers. Again, I’m sure this trade is happening, just surprised it leaked early and to MLB Nerds first.

I believe Buehler is a free agent after this season.

Seems like to Cease to the Dodgers is close then. I’m guessing we get Busch, Sheehan, Pages, & Sweeney.

None of the big insiders are reporting this yet, so very real chance this could be fake. However, this dude posted last night and claims Glasnow is going to the Dodgers alongside Arozarena and not Margot. Obviously take all with a massive grain of salt.

Going to cost a lot more than Pepiot if that’s the case.

If he wasn’t coming off a horrible season sure, but not after last year.