Chicago White Sox

White initial ZiPS projections. I think some of these are way too low and it’s clear that ZiPS is not projecting the rebounds / development I’m expecting from Eloy & Vaughn. That being said, our needs are very clear from the chart below. We all know the big three (2B, RF, & SP), but we’re definitely going to need a ton of RH relief help (especially if we trade Kimbrel) and a backup catcher. Regarding the latter, I just don’t think Zavala or Collins are major league backup catchers and we should target a defensive oriented vet towards the end of the offseason.

Lol…that’s what it sounded like. But I figured there was some example from last year he was pointing to and I can’t for the life of me figure it out. No one fits that billing and it’s just such an extreme example.

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, I think we see some action before the holiday and another big wave of moves leading up to the 1st. Based on what insiders have been saying, the Sox are looking to strike early with an impact piece and if I had to guess that player will be Michael Conforto. Adding Conforto as our first big move does several things for us. First, it addresses the need for a left-handed power bat and improved lineup balance, which takes pressure off having to address those things with our 2B addition. Second, it theoretically makes Sheets or Vaughn expendable via trade if need be. I’m not looking to move either guy necessarily, but if there’s a potential star that can be had at 2B or in the rotation you can now consider it. Finally, it allows us to spend the next couple months focusing on a smaller subset of needs with a reduced scope of options (less focus on free agents, more focus on trades), then having to come out of the lockout with a completely empty canvas.

I don’t know how in the world you think a 2.5 to 3.5 win pitcher with one year of control is worth Eloy or Vaughn. Like how does that even begin to enter your mind? I mean, Olsen is a significantly better player and has two years of control left. They aren’t even remotely comparable assets. Regarding Cespedes, teams don’t trade for players because of “family connections”. You really need to stop with these Disney movie fantasies.

What’s wrong with Bassitt?

I am so confused in what you’re talking about here. Care to elaborate further?

Oh not disagreeing with you guys at all. It’s a shit system no doubt. And you’re right, it was two years had he waited. Still pretty nuts that he didn’t get the Angel’s entire bonus and only like $2M. Dude sacrificed so much coming over when he did.

Couldn’t have Ohtani waited one year and been an unrestricted free agent?

100% agree. Eloy’s power will return next and dude will be a special hitter.

I did in fact believe two whales was once possible, but that was also before Jerry capped us at eight years for Machado and forced us to use those ridiculous vesting options to “stay competitive” with our bids. I have learned from my mistakes and my children pay for it every day by living in the god forsaken south. As for the rest of your post, I like the way you’re thinking! I don’t agree with trading for Buxton (way too expensive / risky), but it’s officially time to go big or go home. I still think guys like Semien and Conforto fit in that regard and would quickly get us closer to a World Series.

What now? Not sure where the Seagar stuff is coming from as I have never once suggested him as an option. And even when I propose signing Scherzer, I still don’t believe it will actually happen. Just what I’d personally do and it theoretically fits within long-term pitching concerns that generally drive Jerry’s decision-making (and FWIW he would cost less than what we offered Wheeler). I do think Semien is attainable and Conforto is 100% a realistic get. In fact, I fully expect Conforto to end up on the Sox. I think he is their #1 target. And to be clear here, I’m not expecting you to be optimistic, but rather to avoid the unfounded pessimism that has taken over your posts. You should never be lumped in with Parkman, but this offseason at least you’ve made some comments that come off as being Jack’s for their ridiculous negativity. You are better than this Caulfield.

Yeah, the $100M stuff is really just stemming from Parkman / Caulfied pessimism. My guess is he gets a contract very similar to what Grandal got.

FIFY

But the reality is the only two options aren’t keeping Kimbrel or trading him for Segura. There are other options and ones that hopefully don’t require us taking $14.5am in salary: .

First off, it’s nothing but love Cali. But I must say that anything we can get for Kimbrel without eating money is a huge win. If picking up his option saves us $1M and gets us a reliever like Dominguez then we should all applaud Rick Hahn. The cost we paid for Craig originally is a sunk cost and nothing we can do will make up for it. Just got to move forward with the best move that optimizes our chances to win in 2022 even if it reiterates the Kimbrel trade was a massive L.

What we gave up for Kimbrel is completely irrelevant to the current decision. Are we trying to win a World Series next year or is pretending the Kimbrel trade wasn’t a disaster more important? Like I said, I want to dump Kimbrel for the best return that takes on the least amount of money possible. I would then reinvest that money into RF and the rotation. Regarding Escobar, I’m just saying I’d rather just sign him for $10M than pick up Kimbrel’s option in order to land Segura. I’d still rather prioritize other needs because $14M+ for a 2 to 2.5 win 2B isn’t a huge value with what 2B are going for right now.

Fully agree. Just sign Escobar for $10M and get 25 much needed bombs.

Under no circumstance should Segura push Tim or Robert out of the 1 or 2 spot. They are both significantly better hitters than Segura.

I’d simply rather prioritize resources towards RF & SP. I’m not a huge Kemp fan by any means, but if I can get Conforto and a legit SP I will happily go cheap elsewhere. That’s why I’d rather move Kimbrel for a cheap controllable reliever than take on a bunch of salary. And why do they have to get more than Dominguez if they eat no money?

No money going out, so not expecting a ton for Kimbrel. A bullpen arm with upside and options is more than sufficient for me if we don’t have to eat any cash. Dominguez is coming back from injury, but has a pretty highly ceiling. And yes Kemp has a nice year, but the dude literally has zero power and little track record of plus offensive performance. I doubt he costs too much, but perhaps Sosa is too light (I actually really like Sosa though). I’d be willing to throw another prospect in if need be.

Not to be a hater, but I don’t get the Wendle love. Great glove but the bat leaves a lot to be desired.

Exactly my point. What kind of contract does Iglesias get? Plus you have to give up a pick. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have Iglesias if I could have for 1/$16M, but the cost will be substantially higher than that.

With James saying he could see payroll going up to $200M, I've gone ahead and created a revised offseason plan. Without going into much deal, I'd go all-in on on Scherzer and Conforto and go cheap everywhere else. Payroll would come in just shy of $200M and I think it would be the best roster in the AL. I think every free agent contract is fair, I think the trades are realistic, and I'm even eating $7M of Dallas' salary to move him. Tell me where I'm wrong or what you dislike about the plan?

$190M plus?! Oh shit. Thanks for sharing bud!

James - Great stuff as usual! Where do you see the payroll ultimately landing? Around $180M or so? I know the article is about us landing one impact free agent, but does that change if we can move Kimbrel? What if we can dump Keuchel on someone while eating $8M or less? Just wondering if there could be room for two sizable additions or if I’m getting way too greedy as usual.