Chicago White Sox

You’re giving up on Cease after three starts?

Trading Kopech for Thor provides certainty at the top of the rotation, but ultimately leaves a hole that will still need to be filled. That doesn’t make any sense IMO.

So fucking true.

Yeah, this move would have made sense in the offseason when you could have given 600 plate appearances in 2019. He is not the type of guy you add right now if you’re serious about contending next year.

Walker & Basabe definitely have starter ceilings. Adolfo does too if he could stay on the field. I’d take first two guys over all the 1B prospects you listed with the exception of Collins since there is still some chance he can stick behind the plate.

Eloy isn’t getting moved from LF. Abreu is 32 years old and a free agent. Burger hasn’t been on a baseball field in almost two years. Mercedes is 26 year old DH who has beat up on less developed pitching most of his career. That only leaves Collins & Sheets and both are far from sure things. You don’t have to like the pick, but I think our depth at 1B is overrated.

He thought exit velocity was going to explain like 80% of the variation in BABIP, which was a bad assumption. The reality is each of these variables build off each other (a ground ball is good for a fast guy, but bad for a slow guy), which is why you’d need a multi variable regression to accurately predict BABIP. That being said, you can still gather some common themes by looking at the r2 of the independent variables.

Lol...same here! Your move Jack!

Who are all these 1B/DH’s exactly?

Lol...did you just literally make this up? There isn’t going to one magic variable that explains all the variation in BABIP, so expecting anything with a r2 is just plain wrong.

How in the world is that assessment “straight math”? You’re moving the goalposts bro.

All these things don’t have a small correlation though, they’re just being evaluated as independent variables. Not exactly sure what kind of r2 you were expecting here or if you actually read the article.

Cool story...except remember the time you claimed striking out less would result in a lower OBP because of “straight math”. Just own up to what you said so we can all move on.

Exit velocity has practically zero correlation with BABIP. Go on though. https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-an-exposition-on-babip/

Dude is losing it. He’s made some bad arguments in the past, but this is a true Soxtalk classic.

Lol...now you’re straight trolling. Less strikeouts = less outs (it’s in the previous word) = higher batting average = higher OBP. The fact you’re ignoring his elite bat to ball skills is beyond insanity.

Dumbest post of all time. You should be embarrassed at this point.

Is this a serious post? Dude strikes out at like a 2% clip and should hit for an incredibly high average which will prop up his OBP.

These might be the hottest of takes you’ve ever made and that’s saying something.

Collins, Burdi, & Hansen were all top 100 prospects at one point. Is it Hostetler’s fault they hit developmental roadblocks or that Hahn didn’t trade before their value eroded? A few years ago Collins and Hansen could have been the #2 & 3 pieces in a possible Yelich deal. While the book is still out on Hostetler, I still think player development and self scouting are the far bigger issues at the moment.

Just need Rick to buy in now ?

My free agent expectations are far from dropping. I have never once claimed we’d add Cole. I said we should do everything in our power to sign him, but have always conveyed it being unlikely given Jerry’s concern with years. I think Bumgarner and Wheeler will likely get five years max (Wheeler probably less) and that should be doable for us. As for Ozuna, we’re unlikely to add both him & Grandal to long-term deals. My plan is prioritizing Grandal because he solves the left-handed bat problem. The only reason I included Puig is you might be able to get him on a pillow contract and buy a year to see what you have in Walker, Rutherford, etc. If he wants a multi-year deal, then I’m filling RF via trade. I love Ozuna’s bat and think he’s definitely signable this offseason, but I’d need proof his arm is healthy and has returned to form to seriously consider him. Again, his addition also makes adding a left-handed bad challenging.

They will 100% spend big money this offseason. To me, the only free agents that seem to be a stretch are Rendon, Cole, & probably Strasburg (and I still believe they pursue both pitchers). Ultimately I see them settling for Bumgarner (who I like but is seriously overrated around here) or Wheeler (who I think is criminally underrated here) as their primary starting pitching upgrade. I fully expect a second rotation addition simply due to our lack of depth and Wood would be a fantastic option, although I could see them going cheaper there. Assuming we keep Colome & Bummer, I think only one bigger bullpen addition will be needed (Betances is a guy I’d love to add) as I’d expect Lopez to likely move to the pen at some point. I fully expect Abreu back on a two year deal (in the $25M to $30M range). I still think they pursue Grandal to fill the left-handed void in the middle of the lineup and as a plus he won’t cost us a draft pick. Him, McCann, & Collins could basically rotate between C & DH for half a year until Vaughn is ready. They will also most definitely acquire a RF upgrade one way or the other, with a stopgap like Puig (until Walker or one of the AA guys is ready) a potentially cheaper option. I do like your Nimmo trade idea as well depending on the price. So in summary let’s say you add Bumgarner ($20M), Wood ($10M), Betances ($12M), Grandal ($20M), & Puig ($12M). That’s ~$75M in payroll added to a base roster that’s probably sitting around ~$55M after extending Abreu and bringing back Rodon. All in you’re looking at a payroll of ~$130M, which would basically be league average. Lineup: Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Grandal (C/DH), Puig (RF), Anderson (SS), McCann/Collins (DH/C) Bench: Garcia (UT), Cordell (OF), Mendick (IF), Collins/McCann (BC) Rotation: Giolito, Bumgarner, Cease, Wood, Lopez (*Kopech to start in AAA) Bullpen: Colome, Bummer, Betances, Fry, Herrera, Marshall/Hamilton, Covey/Banuelos (*eventually Lopez) That seems completely doable to me and would be a team that should challenge for the AL Central title and/or second Wild Card spot in 2020.

I believe my prediction was Colome for Gohara and I would love that despite his current health concerns.