Chicago White Sox

First off, there is no guarantee when Jose will retire. He’s 32 years old and could theoretically play another five years (whether with us or not) and that would go beyond Yoan’s team control. Regardless, Moncada might not want to commit to an organization that say’s they love his mentor but then refuse to commit to him beyond a QO. My point is keeping José happy may be a way to keep Moncada happy. I would say with the utmost confidence that José leaving this offseason would be upsetting to Yoan, so it’s not that outlandish to think his future with the team could impact Moncada’s willingness to stick around.

I will say this. If giving Abreu three years is the cost to indirectly get Moncada to agree to a pre-FA extension then it’s simply the price of doing business. If that’s not a consideration then this is just straight up dumb. I love José and would be fine with him back on a 2/$28M deal (like MLBTR predicted), but otherwise I’d force him to accept the QO and see where things stand next year.

There are some positives, but certain things really stand out. 1) The free agent track record is beyond atrocious outside of Abreu. SoxMachine has a detailed article on this if anyone is interested, but let’s just say diving into the detail doesn’t change much. Lot’s of wasted money on immaterial signings. 2) His pre-FA extension track record has been fantastic, but the Jimenez deal seems far away the most player friendly (only bought out one FA year) and is hopefully not a sign of things to come. 3) His “sell” trades have been solid for the most part, with the three core “rebuild” moves really standing out. 4) The “buy” moves are plagued by the disastrous Shields trade and to a lesser extent by the questionable Samardzija trade. I was a big Semien fan but no one thought he’d end up being this good, but Shark was a total and only under one year of control. 5) Our return so far on the international slot bonus we’ve traded away has been poor, with Burr, Frare, & Schryver are only hopes left of realizing any value 6) Look at our draft record under Hahn, I identified only four guys who amassed over 1 fWAR and two guys who are currently top 100 prospects (both of which were top 5 overall picks). We simply haven’t done much outside of the first round and the early returns from the 2015 to 2017 draft aren’t promising. 7) Our LatAm operations has been a total disaster with only guy who has achieved over 1 fWAR (who we traded away before he even played for us) and one top 100 prospect. Outside of those two, the only prospect I’m aware of that has reached AA is Micker Adolfo and there are only a handful of other guys that would be considered top 30 system talents. We’ve also decided to stop spending our full pool this year because “Marco didn’t like anyone”. ? Ultimately a lot of the failures above come from poor player development. While I’m not 100% in agreement in Driveline’s study, there is no doubt we are amongst the worst in baseball when it comes to player development and it appears we are still well behind the curve when it comes to leveraging analytics, Trackman data, and other innovations when developing our minor leaguers.

Alright, recently a poster who shall remain nameless called Rick Hahn "a very smart guy" and expressed optimism in his ability to take us to the next level. As such, I thought it would be fitting to summarize Rick's tenure as GM (both the good & the bad) and see what people really think. If I'm missing anything of substance below, please let me know as I'm trying to be objective here as possible. With that said here we go: ▪ Duration: 7 seasons (2013 to 2019) ▪ W/L Record: 491-642 (.433 winning %) ▪ Playoff Appearances: Zero ▪ Winning Seasons: Zero ▪ Avg Central Finish: 4.0 (3rd x 1, 4th x 5, 5th x 1) ▪ Free Agency: $256M for 20 bWAR ($13M / win) │ Abreu = $68M for 21 bWAR │All Others = $188M for -1 bWAR (per SoxMachine) ▪ Extensions: Sale = 7/$60M (3 FA years) │ Quainta = 7/$44M (2 FA years) │ Eaton = 7/$44M (3 FA years) │ Anderson = 8/$52M (2 FA years) │ Jimenez = 8/$78M (1 FA year) ▪ Sell Trades: Hector Santiago & Brandon Jacobs for Adam Eaton │ Addison Read for Matt Davidson │ Jake Peavy for Avi Garcia, Frankie Montas, Clueluis Rondon, & J.B. Wendelken │ Gordon Beckham for Yency Almonte │ Zach Duke for Charlie Tilson │ Chris Sale for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Basabe, & Victor Diaz │ Adam Eaton for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, & Dane Dunning │ Jose Quintana for Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose, & Bryant Flete │ Anthony Swarzak for Ryan Cordell │ David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, & Todd Frazier for Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, & Tito Polo ▪ Buy Trades: Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, & Rangel Ravelo for Jeff Samardzija │ Yency Almonte for Tommy Kahnle │ Zack Erwin & J.B. Wendelken for Brett Lawrie │ Trayce Thompson, Frankie Montas, & Micah Johnson for Todd Frazier │ Erik Johnson & Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields │ Justin Yurchak for Manny Banuelos │ Omar Narvaez for Alex Colome │ Yordi Rosario for Ivan Nova │ Alex for Yonder Alonso ▪ Bonus Slot Trades: Alex Katz for $756k in Bonus Slot │Undisclosed Bonus Slot for Ryan Burr │ $500k in Bonus Slot for Thyago Vieira │ $1.3M* in Bonus Slot for Yeyson Yrizarri │ $1.5M in Bonus Slot for Caleb Frare │ $1M* in Bonus Slot for Hunter Schryver │ Undisclosed bonus slot for Ricardo Pinto │$1M in Bonus Slot for Nate Jones' $1.25M buyout, Ray Castro, & Joseph Jarneski │ $250k in Bonus Slot for Wellington Castillo's $500k buyout & Jonah McReynolds ▪ Misc Moves: Non-tendered Tyler Flowers (2015) │ Selected Jimmy Cordero off waivers (2019) ▪ Drafting: Tim Anderson = 7.8 fWAR (2013/01) │ Carlos Rodon = 6.9 fWAR (2014/01) │ Jace Fry = 1.2 fWAR (2014/03) │ Aaron Bummer = 1.6 fWAR (2014/19) │ Nick Madrigal = Top 100 Prospect (2018/01) │ Andrew Vaughn = Top 100 Prospect (2019/01) ▪ LatAm Signings: Fernando Tatis Jr = 3.6 fWAR (2015 class) │ Luis Robert = Top 100 Prospect (2017 class) ▪ Player Dev Rank: 30th / -$350M in value generated (per Driveline)

They no doubt botched it last year. Let’s just hope they learned their lesson that with true stars they will wait it out until their price is reached.

Agreed...no more negotiating through the media. The #1 benefit we have is no one actually considers us a real threat to land the true impact guys. Therefore, move in the shadows and pounce when the time is right. You just might be able to catch one of these other teams off-guard and come out successful. Again, I’m not optimistic they’ll pursue the elite guys, but that’s the approach I would take if I was going to make a run.

Which would be incredibly smart. No reason to hype things up until you actually get shit done. I remain skeptical they’ll make a legit run at the Cole or Strasburg given the years / Boras factor, but fuck would that be a tremendous surprise. That being said, I’ll take stealth mode and be happy with Grandal and Wheeler being the big additons.

Lester would be a better example, although he hasn’t fallen off a cliff.

Hahn already said they won’t.

I definitely think they’re going stealth mode after last offseason’s failures.

His point is with free agency you pay up front for the wins and accept the pain in the later years. The problem is Heyward didn’t contribute much to that 2016 World Series championship and has more or less been a flop of a signing, so it’s really not example of that.

That one win season from Heyward was definitely the reason for that World Series win. Without that epic game 7 speech, the Cubs ultimately choke.

The Padres report was somewhat of a rumor, whereas the Cole to Sox item was pure speculation that the author put at a 1.6% chance of happening. That being said, your point on the media right now is fair. Just will be painful if the Padres of all fucking teams land someone like Strasburg and we settle for the next tier of free agents.

I think them seriously pursuing both guys is not realistic, but them being in the mix for even a single elite free agent this offseason after landing Machado and having two albatross contracts on their books speaks volumes of how they, another mid market club, operates vs us. And that falls on our owner...do you disagree?

And let me be clear, I’d like to aim WAY higher than Calhoun.

If we’re trying to build a team with playoff hopes, I’d rather sign Calhoun to one year deal than trade for Mazara. If Nomar was a good defender, then I’d be more willing to roll the dice. Unfortunately he’s not and his floor is simply too low and reward is too small to pass safer, less exciting additions like a Calhoun.

Yelich had a wRC+ over 120 in his four fulll seasons with the Marlins, while Mazara has been around 93. And Yelich had one season where he flashed an elite quality of contact (2016), which is something Mazara has never done. I just don’t see this being a good comparison. The reality with Mazara is he’s only under control for two more years and his agent is Scott Boras, so even in the unlikely event he breaks out he’s a short-term solution. If we want to roll the dice on a project next year, I’d much rather see what we have in Collins at 1B/ DH than invest in a guy who has 2,000+ below league average plate appearances at the major league level.

Disagree this is another rebuilding year. We need to start going for it starting in 2020. We may not see enough growth out of our young guys to get there, but we need have the major holes filled in the event they do. There is no more punting seasons when Moncada and Giolito are only under four seasons of control.

Boston can’t afford Cole.

I’d much rather have Benintendi than Puig / Calhoun because he doesn’t come with the baggage of the former and has far more upside than the latter. I just don’t see why the Red Sox would ever give him up given their payroll constraints. Acquiring Lopez simply creates a hole in the OF and doesn’t really accomplish anything for them.

Anthony Castrovince from MLB.com has Gerrit Cole signing sign the Sox in his bold predictions article: https://www.mlb.com/news/bold-predictions-for-2020-offseason

If you want a “realistic” offseason, MLB.com had article stating the Padres might after both Rendon & Strasburg. While there is no way in hell that’s happening, it does make Reinsdorf look like a total joke when it comes to big name free agents. It also highlights the idea that when impact guys like Rendon do become available, you should be willing to consider any and all options to make them fit.

Why would the Red Sox, who have a serious financial problem, trade their most affordable OF for Lopez?

The White Sox won a World Series under KW in addition to making the playoffs multiple times. Rick Hahn has yet to achieve a 2nd place finish or even a .500 season. Yes, some of that is by design, but honestly hating on KW but giving Rick Hahn props is very mind-boggling to me. Worst case scenario, hate on both of them at least.

Agreed.