QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 01:52 AM)
This is more of a strategy than a prediction. It was meant to go in the Offseason plan thread, but that was closed, so this is the closest thing to that that I can find...
If I were Hahn, I would target the following players in Free Agency, in order of importance, ranked in categories of hitters, relievers, and starters:
Hitters
1) OF Melky Cabrera - He's a solid hitter, and would fill a hole in LF with a productive hitter who could hit near the top of the lineup and provide a tough out in front of Abreu as well as a little pop. He will likely go for a higher price tag than what I would have the White Sox give him, and Toronto will likely make a high level effort to keep him, but he would be a good bat to have in the lineup.
2) OF Nick Markakis - I've seen comparisons of Markakis on this board to Alejandro De Aza, and if you completely ignore the value in walking more, striking out about half as much, and having much better defense, they're valid comparisons. If you consider these things to be valuable, though, you can see why Markakis is generally the more valuable player by .5-1.5 WAR. Markakis is a solid bat with some power from the left side that is likely to hit the market and get something in the range of 3-4 years and $30-48 million, making him an affordable option.
3) OF Nelson Cruz - If you want to provide Jose Abreu protection in the lineup, there won't be a better 4 hitter on the market than Cruz. His 40 HRs would certainly give opponents a reason to give Abreu more pitches to hit, and he'll obviously get his own production as well. He likely will have a very high price tag, and Baltimore will be making every effort to keep him, but if they can get him on a 3 year deal, he would appreciably improve the White Sox lineup.
4) 3B Chase Headley - I'm not a big believer in Gillaspie, but I do think if his defense is not factored in, he could be a valuable piece. If you can get Headley, it upgrades the defense and provides a switch hitter with the potential to be a middle of the lineup bat, which at worst would be a 6 or 7 hitter. He'll likely get a contract in the same range as Markakis, which to me makes him affordable to the White Sox
5) 1B Adam LaRoche - The White Sox need left handed power, and LaRoche would provide that, though the downside would be that he would pretty much be the DH. If he can be had on a 2 year deal for a reasonable price, it wouldn't be a bad acquisition, and he could provide Abreu some protection in the lineup.
Relievers
1) CL Francisco Rodriguez - The White Sox need a closer, and if they miss out on Robertson, K-Rod would be the best option on the market. His HR rate and declining K rate are concerning, however.
2) RP Luke Gregerson - He has either improved or stayed at the same level of performance every season he's been in MLB, and he has shown closing ability in limited use. Seems like the White Sox also currently have him on their radar.
3) CL Casey Janssen - Prior to 2014, has had some very impressive numbers as a closer, then his performance fell off drastically last year, though he was still successful in save situations. This might be a bounceback candidate that could provide good value.
4) RP Andrew Miller - Miller is a guy who might be able to close, and would definitely fill a need for a left handed arm in the White Sox bullpen. He has impressive peripherals, which likely means he will command a premium on the market, and while some don't see him as worth it, I think he might be depending on what the end cost would be.
5) RP Sean Burnett - Quality left handed arm that could work the 6th or 7th. It seems as though he could be had for relatively cheap as well.
6) RP Zach Duke - This is the type of player that can provide great value. He had a great year last year that pretty much came out of nowhere. This means that if he hits the market, he will probably get a "prove it" type of deal, which could mean getting 2-3 years of a low end cost reliever that could give you a much higher value, potentially even a late inning type of reliever. He also fills a need by being a left handed bullpen arm.
7) RP Tim Stauffer - Could be a very high quality right handed reliever, doesn't allow many HR (though Petco likely plays into that), strikes out a little over 9 per 9 and has about a 3:1 K:BB rate.
8) RP Tom Gorzelanny - He would provide a left handed reliever that could potentially be a late inning reliever. He has nearly 10 K/9, a good ground ball rate, and doesn't allow many HRs. He also probably won't get a premium contract on the market, so is likely a good target.
9) RP Luke Hochevar - Why not? He had TJ surgery, but that means he'll come cheap because he's an unknown at this point. If he can regain most of his previous form, he could be a steal.
Starters
1) RHP Chad Billingsley - If he can recover from injury, he will likely provide 2 starter value at 3-4 starter price.
T2) RHP Brandon McCarthy - He's a quality starter who can give you quality innings, even if he's not going to give you 200. He's worth a #3 starter contract for 2-3 years.
T2) RHP Ervin Santana - He's put up #2-4 starter numbers for around 200 innings in 4 of the last 5 seasons. There's not much buzz around him, either, he could be a good value signing.
After identifying the targets, the next step would be to choose a strategy. The way I see it, the options are:
1) Add a lot of payroll and attempt to compete for a playoff spot in 2015. To do this, I see 6-7 new acquisitions as necessary, which means an additional $50-60 million in payroll.
2) Make a few additions to improve in 2015 with the goal being consistently competing for the playoffs for 2016 and beyond. This would still take acquiring 3-5 new players and adding $30-45 million in payroll
My ideal roster under strategy #1 (new additions in bold):
Lineup
CF Eaton
LF Cabrera
1B Abreu
DH Cruz/LaRoche
RF Garcia
SS Ramirez
2B Semien
3B Gillaspie
C Flowers
Bench - Viciedo, Sanchez, Phegley, Danks
Rotation
1) Sale
2) Q
3) Billingsley
4) Noesi
5) Danks
Bullpen
CL Rodriguez
Gregerson
Miller
Putnam
Petricka
Guerra
Bassitt
My ideal roster under strategy #2 (new additions in bold):
Lineup
CF Eaton
2B Semien
1B Abreu
LF Garcia
RF Markakis
SS Ramirez
3B Headley
DH Gillaspie/Viciedo (depending on opposing SP)
C Flowers
Bench - Sanchez, Phegley, Danks
Rotation
1) Sale
2) Q
3) Billingsley
4) Noesi
5) Bassitt
Bullpen
Gregerson
Petricka
Putnam
Guerra
Duke
Stauffer
Danks
Personally, I like the second option better, as I think it plays out better for the long run, and gives the team some flexibility in trading pieces like Gillaspie, Viciedo, etc. that might bring a decent return in a package without forcing the team's hand. Also, I've pretty much accepted that the White Sox are going to have to eat Danks's contract, and with Bassitt potentially being capable of being a quality starter, I'd much rather see if that can play out than try to dump $5-10 million of Danks's contract. If you sign Billingsley and he performs, you figure out Bassitt can provide at least 3 starter quality, and Rodon takes Noesi's rotation spot, that is a highly cost controlled, extremely effective rotation. Pair it with an offense that can put up decent numbers, a bullpen that doesn't consist of a gas can and matches, and a defense that can perform at at least an average level, and you have a postseason competitor.
The above only considers free agency, mostly because trades are very difficult to predict. That said, looking at trades, my top targets would be:
1) Braves players - Apparently Atlanta wants to get rid of Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, and would be willing to listen to offers on Jason Heyward. All 3 of these players would look very good in a White Sox uniform immediately.
2) Reds players - The Reds are apparently looking to rebuild, and have several players that would be interesting in a trade. Jay Bruce, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Aroldis Chapman are all names I would be interested in being involved in a trade. I would say Cueto, but he is likely untouchable, or would require too much to get. Realistically, Chapman likely is similarly situated as well.
3) Justin Morneau - He can likely be had for cheap, looks like he's rounding into his pre-injury form, and would make a great LH power bat behind Abreu.
4) Ben Zobrist - Apparently Tampa wants to trade him, and his ability to play most defensive positions well and hit well from both sides of the plate are very attractive. Also allows some flexibility in trading Alexei and being able to bridge the gap to Anderson.
Thoughts?
Thats a long ass post.