Eminor3rd

You’re right that elite relievers are worth more at the deadline. But my point is that ALL relievers are. Already having an elite closer, the Sox were not in a position to extract the maximum value from Kimbrel as a top of the line closer, but we’re willing nonetheless to pay an incredibly steep price to buy one and absorb all the risk with it, instead of paying a much lower price for a good middle or setup man, who was nearly just as likely to produce a similar value or bust. Was it possible that Kimbrel would have settled into the setup role well, and performed peak Kimbrel feats in huge moments in the playoffs, making all the difference? Yes. But it was very nearly just as likely that someone like, idk Kendall Graveman would perform just as well in the same situations. The aggressiveness of the move wasn’t the problem — if Hendriks had been lost for the season, for example, the Sox could have made the same trade and it would have made sense even if Kimbrel ended up sucking just as much. Because the Sox would have been in a much likelier position to benefit from the difference between Kimbrel and the next best thing. But in the situation they were in, they made a massive gamble to acquire an asset in which there were simply many more scenarios where it either busted, or it wasn’t going to make a meaningful difference compared to other available, and quite frankly more appropriate options that cost less. It was a desperate move in a situation that did not require a desperate move. Anyway I don’t know if the point I’m making is the one you’re arguing with Balta against, and if so I apologize for derailing (I know how frustrating that is), but it does sound to me like he is arguing more about the logic than about Kimbrel himself.

You didn’t have to “know it was coming” to judge the deal, even when it happened. It was a bad deal because relievers are wildly inconsistent over half seasons, and the difference between elite ones and merely good ones over half season is very small. It was a bad deal because they traded a core piece of their team for a luxury player that was only ever going to be marginally better than more affordable alternatives, and had a high likelihood to bust all along. It wasn’t about Craig Kimbrel specifically. You can’t expect anyone to predict the future, but you should expect them to know how to play the odds.

Fo-wul-kowah

Foal-k

Adam Frazier moved for a couple useful spare parts. Would have been a great high-floor get just like Escobar. Confusing start to what promises to be a very strange off-season.

Escobar at that deal to the mets hurts. The Sox could have guaranteed that third year and I’d have felt good about it. Solidified the position and left a bit to go after Rf and Sp still. Someone else said it, but the Sox must just not like him or the other way around. It isn’t that he was the best available, but I think it may turn out that he was the best option at the price when you consider that there were a couple other spots that needed addressed.

“Elmer Bible” is an 80 grade name, though

That was my reaction too, lol

Ahh, ok.

I’m asking this question legitimately, because, as we all know, the social media space has turned into an animate cloud of malignant, cancerous unreality and contradiction: When was the last time Bob Nightingale rumored something that actually occurred for the White Sox? It seems like it might be never, but I really can’t keep track.

Not a bad deal on paper, I just continue to question how the white Sox prioritize their spending every season. It isn’t a ton of money, but it IS significant, and it doesn’t address their top three needs It will make a lot more sense when/if Kimbrel is traded, of course. And if that trade is decent, I’ll like this signing.

Very interesting

For sure, and in hindsight, it’s hard to argue his choice to sacrifice his earnings for the benefit of his personal development wasn’t absolutely wise. If he didn't start adjusting to the league for another couple years, there’s virtually no shot that he would have done what he just did this season. It’s nonsense to incentivize a player to do something other than what is going to lead him to reach his ceiling. We’re all lucky as fans that Ohtani ignored the incentive.

I THINK it was two years. He would have needed to be 25 years old.

Might be part of the reason I can’t tell the difference lol

Heyman reporting he’s going to be posted tomorrow, which means his thirty day window would begin. Given that a lockout would freeze transactions, does that mean he’s going to rush and sign before dec 1?

Same thing as CVS or Walgreens. Maybe only in nyc?

I’m gonna be honest: When I go into a chain pharmacy, I don’t think I even consciously register whether it’s a CVS, Walgreens, Duane Reade, etc.

The problem with this line of thinking is that there simply aren't REMOTELY enough examples of hitters that have made the transition to be able to generalize like you are. Suzuki is way better and, more importantly, WAY different than Tsutsugoh, even when Tsutsugoh was in his prime -- simply the fact that they both hit thirty-plus homers is not enough to compare them. It would be like saying Fernando Tatis and Pete Alonso are similar because they both hit thirty-plus homers this year. There's reason to be skeptical, yes, but the only way to project is to use scouting and evaluate the players as individuals -- which maybe we can't do well from where we are, but the conclusion should be uncertainty, not pessimism. Or, put another way, the skepticism should come from our lack of ability to draw a clear conclusion, not from a sloppy conclusion we DID draw from a lack of data. Also, there are some small parks in Japan (Jingu, Tokyo Dome, Yokohama), but there are just as many cavernous, pitcher friendly stadiums (Sapporo, Chiba, Nagoya). Homerun numbers are not inflated over there at a league-level. Finally, I think it's important to point out that, contrary to what I think most people believe, the players that get posted by NPB are RARELY the best players in the league. They are invariably GOOD players relative to the league (nearly always past their primes), but NPB teams work hard to keep their superstars. The reason that Seiya is so intriguing because this is the first time since Hideki Matsui that a player is posted that is arguably the best overall hitter in the league. I think you can make a case that Masataka Yoshida and Munetaka Murakami might be better overall hitters or prospects, but it wouldn't a definitive one, and neither of those guys just had the season that Seiya did. I can tell you that, for sure, how Seiya fares will have a major affect on how I evaluate the hitters in Japan for years to come, because we simply haven't been able to see someone like him, in his prime, take a real shot at it... really since Ichiro. Even Matsui was significantly older and clearly out of his athletic prime when he made the jump (he used to play CF, if you can believe it). It's going to be interesting.

Clip of one of the Carp oeundan's Seiya songs, complete with alternating rising and sitting, lol: I remember seeing this in person when I went over there to see some games in... 2016? It's a pretty arresting effect from far away (our seats were pretty far up behind home plate).

Jim Allen updated his profile page for Seiya, very in-depth as always: https://jballallen.com/guess-whos-coming-to-dinner/profile-seiya-suzuki/

Scott Boras is a very successful, very sleazy, salesman. He will say anything to maximize his earnings, just as the owners will do for their own. There are no white knights here. There is no wisdom being expressed, only marketing.

Yeah right

I just want to say thanks for considering this perspective.

If you're going to quote a post, please don't ignore the entire conversation before it. The whole discussion has been predicated on the conditional that Rodon isn't injured.