TheFutureIsNear

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 14, 2014 -> 09:03 PM) Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon. This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor. No rush, not when he's still pre-arb. His BABIP actually goes all the way up .407 if we are just talking against righties. In other words....his success right now is unsustainable. I don't think Conor is a bad player by any means, I see him as a .280/.340/.440 guy who can only hit 10 home runs a year. If that was my 2B I'd be ecstatic, but if he's going to be just "cromulent" at the corner IF positions he needs to produce more at the plate. He's the kind of guy that is fine for now, but you would hope to upgrade from. But you are right, we shouldn't just give him away to any offer or anything like that, but let's just say hypothetically that a team like Toronto offers their 12th and 18 best prospects (whoever they may be) for Conor. Do you take that deal or are you still waiting?

Just curious to see what everybody's opinion is on this since mlbtraderumors listed Conor in their 3B trade market post today. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/trad...-basemen-3.html Curious to see what the boards willingness to trade him is. Personally, I see a 3B with little pop and a .370 BAIP that screams trade him while his value is highest. His contract should also help and not be a deterrent for any team. However, that contract is also a big reason for us not to get rid of him....and Davidson sucking certainly doesn't help the idea of trading him. So would you trade him? And what do you think we could get?

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jul 10, 2014 -> 12:50 AM) Prediction: Rodon Anderson M. Johnson Hawkins Montas Davidson Danish Ravelo Michelzewski Adams Not bad Are you not counting Semien and Erik Johnson as prospects or did they just not crack your top 10?

I wouldn't say Danks' contract is necessarily bad...not great, but "anchor" is an overstatement if you ask me. If you look at the market for SP's from this past off-season I would say Danks fits right in with the Santana/Nolasco/Garza/Jimenez group that averaged $12M per. So maybe the $14M is slightly high for Danks, but I don't think it would be a huge deterrent in a trade. I mean a worst case scenario we could throw in a total of 5 or 6 Mil spread over 3 years if it made the other team feel better in order to get a better haul. JR Murphy and a A pitcher with a big arm like De Paula seems like it would be a reasonable return.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 04:56 PM) Knee surgery for Montas. https://twitter.com/jnorris427/status/483715155608358912 Well thats a bummer. Don't really care about the futures game either, sounds like what was on the way to being Montas' breakout season is going to come to a screeching hault

Don't feel like going back through all the pages, but is Spencer Adams considered signable? That kid looks like he could be something special in 2-3 years. If we can get him and Rodon signed and into the system quick we could really have something going with our pitching staff.

Ehh we should probably make sure these guys can actually play before we call it a "glutten". I don't like any of their bats enough for them to stick at either SS or 3B honestly. At least not on a team with world series aspirations. I think both Semien and Johnson will both be at least serviceable MLB 2b, but the rest are depth/UTL guys.

So has the year been pretty much worst case scenario for our minor leaguers or is it just me? I'd like to preface this by saying, yes, I know it's early and I know the world isn't over in May.... - Sanchez has 0 pop - Davidson can't even make contact - Mitchell is a lost cause - Things are looking grim for Thompson, this was supposed to be the year - Beck can't get anybody to swing and miss - Anderson can't hit - Barnum is beginning to look like a lost cause - While better, Hawkins isn't exactly looking great - May looks terrible So besides Johnson and Danish are there any silver linings I'm not aware of to give us hope? I know our system isn't very good and I wasn't expecting big things, but things really don't look good until we infuse more talent into the minor leagues. Hahn did a good job of getting young talent for the big league club this year, but he needs to get more talent in the minor leagues as soon as possible. There really isn't much besides a utility INF, maybe a 5th starter, and hopefully Davidson coming in the next 2 or 3 years. That's not good....

QUOTE (southside hitman @ May 15, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) Bad arm slot, unconventional delivery, poor secondary offerings. destined for the bullpen. You forgot too skinny

QUOTE (oldsox @ Apr 10, 2014 -> 09:50 PM) Sox could have promoted one of the outfielders at Birmingham. Instead we pay for an outfielder from KC org who is hitting .231. I don't get it. Who exactly would you have suggested from AA? There's nothing wrong with this move at all. Former very highly regarded prospect who is still only 26 who is a + defender and has wheels. So why not?

Former top 100 prospect for Braves and Pirates. He's 26 now and hasn't really shown the ability to hit at a major league level yet but he is a plus defender in the outfielder with good speed. Looks as though he has shown the ability to get on base at a decent clip though. In reality it's a long shot and probably nothing, but worth a shot for some cash Jerry found in his sock draw. He still has a shot to be a useful bench player.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/04/whit...-hernandez.html Former top 100 prospect. Not the worst guy to acquire for AAA

Really wish I would have known this before I traded for Nate in fantasy.....I fully expect this is just a ploy to increase Lidstrom's trade value though and its pretty smart when you think about it.

Sizemore opening day starter in CF for Boston. http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/1...rt-center-field

James McCann is a pretty good catching prospect Daniel Fields is a OF prospect with an intriguing blend of power and speed Corey Knebel was a great closer for University of Texas drafted in 2013 who is just about MLB ready Robbie Ray is a lefty with high strikeout stuff and near ready Those are the prospects that stand out in their system to me that are realistic targets

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-c...ins-tigers.html Apparently Ervin Santana's price may have dropped all the way to 3/40M. Everybody still horribly against a 3 year deal?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) How is $50-60 million a reasonable price for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher? I'd like to see the evidence you provide explaining how those are good value deals. As far as I'm aware, a great majority of those deals end up biting teams in the ass. Ervin Santana is a #3 borderline #2 starter. I'd love for you to show me guys that have been recently signed for around $13 million a year. Because I see the Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco's of the world signing for 11 or 12 minimum. Its just the going rate for starting pitchers and Santana is a way better pitcher than them. And if you really want me to prove you wrong....https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9gIYm7hp32V6QbwoeoXOvKWQ3i9ajgzsRtfrVvx1-tR7NQ4vw $7 million dollars is the new average price payed per WAR. Depends where you look since every website seems to have their own version of WAR in 2014, but Santana's average WAR is right around 2.6 for the past 4 years. So you're right. Just a horrible value for $13 million dollars.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 02:36 PM) Like I said in the other thread, the Brewers won 10 more games than the Sox last year and I can't figure out how he makes a lick of sense for the Brewers either. Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:31 PM) Then why not wait until next year to add another starter who will be a year younger (at least) than Santana and make the push then? Honestly, the first question you asked is my entire point. Without knowing what the Sox have, adding old starting pitchers to a young, rebuilding team is a bad, bad move. Yeah I'm going to disagree entirely with this. Adding a starting pitcher to the current White Sox adds very little marginal utility. Adding a catcher next year, whether by free agency or by trade, for even $20 million purchases much, much more value than does the starting pitcher. Vague, blanket statements like this are often - if not always - wrong and easy to disprove. So you're telling me that A)you believe you can go out any year and sign a #3 starter for $50M and B) you are fine with not competing in 2015 either? Seems to me like you are content with sitting around and waiting to see if a bunch of fringe talent works out and if not then you go out and sign someone else. Why not sure up your starting 5 this year and then sign a catcher + a reliever next year? Adding $13 to the payroll this year isn't stopping any progress or building.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) To Dick and FutureIsNear: Honest question - how many games do you believe the Sox will win this year without Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez? How many do you think they'd win with either of them? Next honest question - how many games do you believe the Sox will win NEXT year without Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez? How many do you think they'd win with either of them? What hitters are added? I can't predict if the lineup will be capable of hitting well enough to win. But I do think Sale, Q, and Santana is more than enough pitching to win a world series. Without adding another #2 or #3 I don't think the pitching staff is good enough to be a serious contender though. And while I don't think 2014 is going to be any better than a 80 win season, but 2015 playoffs are more than within reach and that should be the goal.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:01 PM) I'm glad to see you say you couldn't have said it better because it's a terrible argument. THE SOX HAVE ASSETS TO USE. You have to see what the value of them are - because that value is undetermined at this point - before you can evaluate yourself further. Sorry I don't think every player on the white sox are going to be great. Paulino and Reinzio are 5th starters/long relievers. And singing any pitcher takes 0 innings away from Johnson.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:49 AM) Frankly, I don't know if Garcia will pan out, but I would rather acquire him at his development stage than the unknown in the second round. I'm not saying I would rush out and sign Santana or Jimenez, but picking up a veteran pitcher at this stage makes a lot of sense. Increase the inventory. Money aside, banking your future on future 2nd round picks is a bigger longshot than banking on Santana or Jimenez being All Stars. This speeds up the rebuild. You want to play it close to the vest, you wind up like the Cubs who are now saying to their fans their rebuild might not be complete until next decade. Couldn't have said it better. Keep waiting on 2nd round picks and the fringe prospects that are currently in our system to develop and next thing you know it's 5 years later and "next year is the year" becomes the team motto.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:08 AM) Expensive relative to guys like Paulino. $10-$15M isn't nothing. It's 12-18% of our current total payroll. Ervin Santana has had xFIPs in the mid-4's 3 of the last 5 years, too. It's not bad. It's also not that good. He's got just as good a chance of repeating 2012 as 2013. He's 31 and we're talking about signing him to a, what, 4 year deal? He will definitely cost a draft pick. There is definitely risk there, and it's just unnecessary. Wait till next year if appropriate. So you mean a proven pitcher is going to make more than a guy who has done absolutely nothing in his career???? This is crazy news to me, thanks for sharing.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:04 AM) The risk is that the dude is 31. Check pitchers historically from ages 18-30 and pitchers from ages 31-42. They tend to lose velocity, lose break, and become more injury prone. It's going to be all downhill from here for Santana. You may get another 3.75 ERA, 210 IP year out of him this year, but for what? A 76 win team? Maybe he pushes them to 78? The value of those additional wins on the value added win curve is very small. The following year, he might be at 4.00 and 200 IP. It's not going to continue to get better. By the time the Sox are expected contenders - we'll say 2016 - Santana is going to be 33 years old with 2 years remaining on his deal. The Sox will have had ample opportunities to add starting pitchers in the meantime that are as good or better than Santana, and they won't come at the price that Santana does. Tanaka made sense because he is 25. You can expect that he'll get better. You can't say the same for the remaining starting pitchers. Those are the only types of players the Sox should be targeting at this point. That's why Santana does not make sense. I can completely make up #'s and state broad generalizations that support my argument too..... Most pitchers don't start to break down until closer to 35, and in fact, have a good amount of success in their early 30's because they have fully learned how to be a pitcher rather than a thrower. I agree that Santana maintaining a 3.2 ERA is unrealistic, but between 3.5-4.2 is extremely realistic. So is the fact that he's most likely going to pitch 200+ innings and deep into games.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) So you get rid of a 2nd round pick in the hopes that an expensive guy with a questionable background performs so that you can trade him for a prospect. Expensive relative to what? The money you and I make? Or the going rate for pitchers like Scott Feldman and Scott Kazmir who make 10 or 11 million dollars a year? And you're still ignoring the fact that Ervin Santana is a better pitcher than you're giving him credit for. 4 out of the last 6 years he's pitched 210+ innings and posted a sub 4 era. And 3 times his ERA was sub 3.5. All while pitching in the AL. So what's the risk? He has 1 bad year out of the 4 he's under contract for? Sign me up.