TheFutureIsNear

So has the year been pretty much worst case scenario for our minor leaguers or is it just me? I'd like to preface this by saying, yes, I know it's early and I know the world isn't over in May.... - Sanchez has 0 pop - Davidson can't even make contact - Mitchell is a lost cause - Things are looking grim for Thompson, this was supposed to be the year - Beck can't get anybody to swing and miss - Anderson can't hit - Barnum is beginning to look like a lost cause - While better, Hawkins isn't exactly looking great - May looks terrible So besides Johnson and Danish are there any silver linings I'm not aware of to give us hope? I know our system isn't very good and I wasn't expecting big things, but things really don't look good until we infuse more talent into the minor leagues. Hahn did a good job of getting young talent for the big league club this year, but he needs to get more talent in the minor leagues as soon as possible. There really isn't much besides a utility INF, maybe a 5th starter, and hopefully Davidson coming in the next 2 or 3 years. That's not good....

QUOTE (southside hitman @ May 15, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) Bad arm slot, unconventional delivery, poor secondary offerings. destined for the bullpen. You forgot too skinny

QUOTE (oldsox @ Apr 10, 2014 -> 09:50 PM) Sox could have promoted one of the outfielders at Birmingham. Instead we pay for an outfielder from KC org who is hitting .231. I don't get it. Who exactly would you have suggested from AA? There's nothing wrong with this move at all. Former very highly regarded prospect who is still only 26 who is a + defender and has wheels. So why not?

Former top 100 prospect for Braves and Pirates. He's 26 now and hasn't really shown the ability to hit at a major league level yet but he is a plus defender in the outfielder with good speed. Looks as though he has shown the ability to get on base at a decent clip though. In reality it's a long shot and probably nothing, but worth a shot for some cash Jerry found in his sock draw. He still has a shot to be a useful bench player.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/04/whit...-hernandez.html Former top 100 prospect. Not the worst guy to acquire for AAA

Really wish I would have known this before I traded for Nate in fantasy.....I fully expect this is just a ploy to increase Lidstrom's trade value though and its pretty smart when you think about it.

Sizemore opening day starter in CF for Boston. http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/1...rt-center-field

James McCann is a pretty good catching prospect Daniel Fields is a OF prospect with an intriguing blend of power and speed Corey Knebel was a great closer for University of Texas drafted in 2013 who is just about MLB ready Robbie Ray is a lefty with high strikeout stuff and near ready Those are the prospects that stand out in their system to me that are realistic targets

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-c...ins-tigers.html Apparently Ervin Santana's price may have dropped all the way to 3/40M. Everybody still horribly against a 3 year deal?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) How is $50-60 million a reasonable price for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher? I'd like to see the evidence you provide explaining how those are good value deals. As far as I'm aware, a great majority of those deals end up biting teams in the ass. Ervin Santana is a #3 borderline #2 starter. I'd love for you to show me guys that have been recently signed for around $13 million a year. Because I see the Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, Ricky Nolasco's of the world signing for 11 or 12 minimum. Its just the going rate for starting pitchers and Santana is a way better pitcher than them. And if you really want me to prove you wrong....https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9gIYm7hp32V6QbwoeoXOvKWQ3i9ajgzsRtfrVvx1-tR7NQ4vw $7 million dollars is the new average price payed per WAR. Depends where you look since every website seems to have their own version of WAR in 2014, but Santana's average WAR is right around 2.6 for the past 4 years. So you're right. Just a horrible value for $13 million dollars.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 02:36 PM) Like I said in the other thread, the Brewers won 10 more games than the Sox last year and I can't figure out how he makes a lick of sense for the Brewers either. Explain to me how adding a talented player at a reasonable price hurts any team in any situation. I'd love to hear how signing Ervin Santana is going cause a screeching stop to our entire rebuilding process.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:31 PM) Then why not wait until next year to add another starter who will be a year younger (at least) than Santana and make the push then? Honestly, the first question you asked is my entire point. Without knowing what the Sox have, adding old starting pitchers to a young, rebuilding team is a bad, bad move. Yeah I'm going to disagree entirely with this. Adding a starting pitcher to the current White Sox adds very little marginal utility. Adding a catcher next year, whether by free agency or by trade, for even $20 million purchases much, much more value than does the starting pitcher. Vague, blanket statements like this are often - if not always - wrong and easy to disprove. So you're telling me that A)you believe you can go out any year and sign a #3 starter for $50M and B) you are fine with not competing in 2015 either? Seems to me like you are content with sitting around and waiting to see if a bunch of fringe talent works out and if not then you go out and sign someone else. Why not sure up your starting 5 this year and then sign a catcher + a reliever next year? Adding $13 to the payroll this year isn't stopping any progress or building.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) To Dick and FutureIsNear: Honest question - how many games do you believe the Sox will win this year without Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez? How many do you think they'd win with either of them? Next honest question - how many games do you believe the Sox will win NEXT year without Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez? How many do you think they'd win with either of them? What hitters are added? I can't predict if the lineup will be capable of hitting well enough to win. But I do think Sale, Q, and Santana is more than enough pitching to win a world series. Without adding another #2 or #3 I don't think the pitching staff is good enough to be a serious contender though. And while I don't think 2014 is going to be any better than a 80 win season, but 2015 playoffs are more than within reach and that should be the goal.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:01 PM) I'm glad to see you say you couldn't have said it better because it's a terrible argument. THE SOX HAVE ASSETS TO USE. You have to see what the value of them are - because that value is undetermined at this point - before you can evaluate yourself further. Sorry I don't think every player on the white sox are going to be great. Paulino and Reinzio are 5th starters/long relievers. And singing any pitcher takes 0 innings away from Johnson.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:49 AM) Frankly, I don't know if Garcia will pan out, but I would rather acquire him at his development stage than the unknown in the second round. I'm not saying I would rush out and sign Santana or Jimenez, but picking up a veteran pitcher at this stage makes a lot of sense. Increase the inventory. Money aside, banking your future on future 2nd round picks is a bigger longshot than banking on Santana or Jimenez being All Stars. This speeds up the rebuild. You want to play it close to the vest, you wind up like the Cubs who are now saying to their fans their rebuild might not be complete until next decade. Couldn't have said it better. Keep waiting on 2nd round picks and the fringe prospects that are currently in our system to develop and next thing you know it's 5 years later and "next year is the year" becomes the team motto.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:08 AM) Expensive relative to guys like Paulino. $10-$15M isn't nothing. It's 12-18% of our current total payroll. Ervin Santana has had xFIPs in the mid-4's 3 of the last 5 years, too. It's not bad. It's also not that good. He's got just as good a chance of repeating 2012 as 2013. He's 31 and we're talking about signing him to a, what, 4 year deal? He will definitely cost a draft pick. There is definitely risk there, and it's just unnecessary. Wait till next year if appropriate. So you mean a proven pitcher is going to make more than a guy who has done absolutely nothing in his career???? This is crazy news to me, thanks for sharing.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 11:04 AM) The risk is that the dude is 31. Check pitchers historically from ages 18-30 and pitchers from ages 31-42. They tend to lose velocity, lose break, and become more injury prone. It's going to be all downhill from here for Santana. You may get another 3.75 ERA, 210 IP year out of him this year, but for what? A 76 win team? Maybe he pushes them to 78? The value of those additional wins on the value added win curve is very small. The following year, he might be at 4.00 and 200 IP. It's not going to continue to get better. By the time the Sox are expected contenders - we'll say 2016 - Santana is going to be 33 years old with 2 years remaining on his deal. The Sox will have had ample opportunities to add starting pitchers in the meantime that are as good or better than Santana, and they won't come at the price that Santana does. Tanaka made sense because he is 25. You can expect that he'll get better. You can't say the same for the remaining starting pitchers. Those are the only types of players the Sox should be targeting at this point. That's why Santana does not make sense. I can completely make up #'s and state broad generalizations that support my argument too..... Most pitchers don't start to break down until closer to 35, and in fact, have a good amount of success in their early 30's because they have fully learned how to be a pitcher rather than a thrower. I agree that Santana maintaining a 3.2 ERA is unrealistic, but between 3.5-4.2 is extremely realistic. So is the fact that he's most likely going to pitch 200+ innings and deep into games.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) So you get rid of a 2nd round pick in the hopes that an expensive guy with a questionable background performs so that you can trade him for a prospect. Expensive relative to what? The money you and I make? Or the going rate for pitchers like Scott Feldman and Scott Kazmir who make 10 or 11 million dollars a year? And you're still ignoring the fact that Ervin Santana is a better pitcher than you're giving him credit for. 4 out of the last 6 years he's pitched 210+ innings and posted a sub 4 era. And 3 times his ERA was sub 3.5. All while pitching in the AL. So what's the risk? He has 1 bad year out of the 4 he's under contract for? Sign me up.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 08:19 AM) Therein lies the problem. Looking at the list of available SPs, which ones have a good chance of being either good for a few years or good long enough to flip for more young talent? It's a gamble with most of those guys, especially considering what the price would be. I'm all for signing someone who can help the team in 2014, but they Sox really need to consider what will happen after 2014. Who knows, one of these guys could be lightning in the bottle. Maybe they sign aguy who tears it up the first half and is then traded for some great young talent. We'll look back and say that it was a good signing. But if they sign someone who stinks it up who goes out with an injury, we'll say it was a terrible signing. There's a ton of risk right now, and the Sox have to weigh those risks against possible rewards. Ervin Santana has been good 4 out of the past 6 years pitching in the AL. There isn't nearly the risk everybody is making it out to be. Jimenez? Yeah, pretty big risk. But Ervin Santana has proven that he's a well above average mlb starting pitcher at this point. And those guys rarely go for less than 15 million a year unless they are at the end of their careers.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:23 PM) If they were a starting pitcher short of competing on paper in 2014 I'd agree. They are not. That means assuming that risk for a very unlikely reward. For the record I've been saying Santana the whole time not Jimenez but..... Why is 2015 not a factor? Why not sign a really good #3 starter now for 12 or 13 mil per year? Can we agree that if the team wants to compete in 2015 another SP is going to be have to signed or acquired somehow? Why wait and pay a premium price when there is a more than serviceable SP now at a bargain price? Santana is 31, not 37, I think its more than reasonable to say that he should pitch at a high level for another 4 years. If you would have asked me 2 months ago whether or not I thought the Sox should sign Ervin Santana I would have said heck no without hesitation. But at some point you have to factor in value and capitalize on a buyers market. And do people really think this organization is going to spend 90+ million on 1 of the top SP's being mentioned for next years FA class? Not going to happen.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) Why take the risk now when you could take it in 2015 then? If all the acquisitions we just made fall flat on their faces, then you just paid a bunch of money for nothing. There won't be any SP's of the same quality of Ervin Santana available for $14M per year next year, or any year. That is the point of the entire thread and idea. For whatever reason the market for SP's has completely dried up at this point and its a good time to capitalize. $14M a year is almost nothing for a SP recently, why not take a chance on 1 that just put up a 3.2 ERA? I have no idea why anybody wouldn't want to do that.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 04:01 PM) Detroit is still a good team. The AL Central has not been a horsedung division for a few years now. I think it will require less wins to take the division this year, but I would say the winning team is going to need at least 85-86 wins. Adding a veteran starting pitcher over going with Johnson/Surkamp/Rienzo is not going to get the Sox substantially more wins. I don't understand the fascination with spending money on a SP just to spend money. Don't confuse the fact that the Sox were willing to spend $20MM per on Tanaka with their willingness to spend money on another starter...especially one that might be with the team for only a year. Is the world ending and you're not telling anybody?? You do know there will be a 2015 MLB season right? And I'm pretty sure the White Sox are still participating. Not every move has to have an immediate impact. And signing any SP doesn't affect Erik Johnson....taking away a rotation spot from the other 2 guys? Don't care. They are dime a dozen 5th starters who can be found anywhere.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 03:55 PM) Who? And for how much? Ervin Santana for 4/56. Just turned 31 last month and has posted sub 4 ERA with 210+ innings pitched 3 out of the past 4 years. Sounds like a steal to me.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) To what end? How many games do you expect us to win with and without a short-term veteran pitching contract? Why not try to develop a prospect internally for free instead? There's no risk there, because we weren't winning this year anyway. Trust me, I've been all aboard the rebuilding train for a longer than most and fully realize the Sox aren't going to win much this year. But with all that said, you have to realize a good investment opportunity when you see 1. Its like a really nice piece of real estate going for sale way under market value. If you have the $ you have to at least consider it. Santana has shown the ability to pitch like a legit #2 starter and to get that guy at $14M per season should be considered a pretty big steal.

Garza went for less than expected so the timing makes a ton of sense to grab a guy like Santana right now. We would have to give up a comp pick (2nd round), but either A) you keep him and he makes a reasonable $14M-$15M per year. B) You flip him next year and get back a ton more than the 2nd round pick or C) he flops and Jerry can only go to the Bahamas twice this year . But seriously, with a seemingly down market and SP always held at a premium at the trade deadline I think it makes a ton of sense. Of course I'm realistic and realize there is a very slim chance of this actually happening.