shysocks

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 03:53 PM) I agree, I'm starting to think catcher is the weakest spot. It took a .350 BABIP for him to be worth anything. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen again. At best he's a 1 WAR catcher. "At best" he's better than a 1 WAR catcher since he just eclipsed that and has done it before without the high BABIP. What about his .261 BABIP in 2013 when he played hurt all year? That was the only major league season where he really wasn't worth anything. ZiPS likes him the most at a 95 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR, Steamer likes him the least with a 75 wRC+ and 0.7 WAR, and everything else is in between. I'd say "most likely" he's a 1 WAR catcher and we can live with that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 02:56 PM) With the money owed Cabrera and the fact that he is coming up lame annually now, he is the one guy on the list I think is questionable at best. I don't think many teams would trade for Miguel's Cabrera's contract right now even if they had to give up nothing. Haha yes, too bad for the Tigers it was a manager on that vote and not a GM.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 02:36 PM) http://m.mlb.com/news/article/113014540/ly...coveted-players More annoyed that Bumgarner is on there. People need to slow down on him a little, including the silly NL manager quoted in the article that he'd take Bumgarner over Kershaw. He's a poor man's Sale. Maybe not a poor man. He's a middle-class man's Sale.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Mar 13, 2015 -> 03:26 PM) He now has a baseball reference page. Transactions are pretty funny. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/ferrewi01.shtml "Height: 6' 3", Weight: 220ish"

On topic, I'm not counting on Nate Jones in 2015, or ever again really. He'll come back and he'll either make a nice "acquisition" or he'll fade away, but the org has definitely prepared for his absence. NOW EVERYBODY DRINK SOME GREEN BEER AND CHILL TF OUT.

Eaton (10): Bonifacio (7): Abreu (3): ToucemAllJoe, Ramirez (6): Avi (5): Condor13, Beltre (9): Soto (6): Beckham (7): Hawkins (5): Bench (10): shysocks,

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Mar 12, 2015 -> 11:16 PM) Thank god we got Abreu a year early. Abreu is partially responsible for the size of these deals. Cubans were having success long before him but it seems like he and Puig broke the dam. Now there's no chance for any of these teams to get surplus value.

GAME 1 Bonifacio (8): Saladino (8): Gillaspie (5): Eminor3rd, Garcia (5): hi8is, Soto (4): Wilkins (6): shysocks, Hawkins (4): Condor13, TouchemAllJoe Black (6): Sanchez (10): Bench (10): GAME 2 Eaton (10): Cabrera (5): Abreu (1): TouchemAllJoe LaRoche (3): shysocks, Ramirez (6): Shuck (7): Eminor3rd, Beckham (6): Flowers (4) Johnson (9): Bench (10): hi8is, Farrell (100): Condor13

I request this thread be pinned.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:10 PM) This could be huge, if it stands up to scrutiny: http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/ I could stare at the final numbers all day but of course the first thing I did was look up Sox guys. Sale is a boss, as the article mentioned. One observation - the only guys to sit under 70 (two standard devs., so theoretically the top 2% of pitchers) in each of the four years are Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara, Craig Kimbrel, and David Robertson. Duke also fared well last year which makes me think maybe the Sox have something like this internally. Also, holy **** 2012 Craig Kimbrel.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:34 PM) Duke had an elite 38 innings. The other 20 were awful. When I got my BP they project him for a negative WAR. And the rest of the past 10 years has been godawful as well. And Beckham is a back up. You said he isn't a top 25. Is Sanchez better? If the answer is yes, tell me what you base it on? Bonafacio's career splits are worse than Beckham's. He has zero hits. If the current spring training numbers are really any kind of guide as to how this season is going to play out, the Sox are in trouble. Gillaspie, Melky, LaRoche...none of them are hitting. I'm not expecting Beckham to be an all star. A back up is a good role for him. It's March 11th. Guys don't even have 15 plate appearances. http://www.southsidesox.com/2015/3/4/81460...tistics-of-2014 You're repeatedly missing when Eminor says his thoughts on Beckham are primarily guided by his whole bad career and not the 13 plate appearances this spring. Are you not reading it or are you just willfully ignoring it?

Bonifacio CF: 10 - Cabrera LF: 5 - LaRoche 1B: 3 - Garcia RF: 5 - Condor13, Gillaspie 3B: 7 - Beckham SS: 7 - Brantly C: 5 - Soto DH: 5 - buehrle> wood, shysocks, Sanchez 2B: 10 -

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 09:45 AM) http://sfist.com/2015/03/07/terrible_human..._mariotti_h.php Reading this article, he is going back to the medium he said was dying 8 years ago when he went to AOL. It also says at one point he thought he was the one that got Obama elected. You cannot make this stuff up. I saw this and thought about what would happen if I had simply posted his name, no other information, in the Chicago Sports Media thread. Too late now but I'll think about it the next time he goes off the radar for a while.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 10:53 AM) D'oh, my brother just sent me that it's behind a paywall, sorry everyone. They ran stats and found that players that outperformed their zips projections in spring training went on to overperform in the season, same trend in underperforming. If this is the same article that they talked about on South Side Sox earlier this week, there are a few 'buts' to mention. First you have to consider where on the scale of established vet to fighting for a roster spot the guy sits, because you have to know whether you can place any faith at all in the numbers. Once you've determined that, I think it's something like a 30 point swing in the OPS or ERA projection if the guy has the best or worst spring ever (so from 4.00 to 3.70 or from .750 to .780). The impact is very minor, but yes, there is some meaning.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 10:27 AM) My prediction: needless handwringing about saying Micah's stock is up. I'm firmly Team Sanchez but obviously Micah's stock is up. It's not in dispute. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 10:49 AM) Neither does Melky Cabrera at this point. Judging people by their numbers in spring training on March 11, is like predicting who wins a golf tournament based on the very first hole. It's more like predicting who wins the tournament after the first hole on Sunday. We actually have a lot more information than just their stats on March 11. In this case, we know Melky has a Major League track record of being good and a big contract. Beckham has neither of those things. So while I agree with you that he's gonna make the team, I can envision a scenario where he doesn't and they dump him. It is not a certainty.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:35 AM) Interestingly they did fire Doug Collins. Were talking coaches not players right? And I never said that Thibs was the reason they didnt make the Championship. But for all of the success in the regular season the Bulls have had very limited success in the playoffs. I'll challenge you to answer the question I asked earlier: Which of the playoff series that the Bulls lost should they have won given their roster at the time?

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:19 AM) This thread is funny cause it goes right from us Sox fans making fun of Baez for being a whole 0-8 into ragging on Cubs fans for getting excited about the back to back to back homers today. Yeah, but you'll notice that no single person participated in both sides of that. So we're absolved. They deserve to be mocked anyway. I saw people taking it as confirmation that this totally is the year. GMAFB.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 6, 2015 -> 07:25 PM) Ryan Baker of channel 2 just called Jon Lester's 2 inning sprng training debut "historic". Related: Soler, Baez, and Bryant just left the yard back-to-back-to-back. I know because Twitter lit up with Cub jubilation.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Mar 10, 2015 -> 02:47 PM) I'm not arguing that he doesn't max out the potential. But maxing out their potential doesn't mean his teams are vastly overachieving. I think they achieve what they're capable of in a pretty s***ty conference with 1 or 2 really good teams: they get to the playoffs and then lose. At best you could argue that he overachieved by beating the Nets. Everything else is up to expectations for the most part. Without Rose and a different coach, are you (and SS2k5) suggesting they shouldn't have gotten to the playoffs at all? I equate maxing out and overachieving, but that's semantics. To the bolded, what action should it come down to? I know you're not suggesting it, but let's say we fire Thibs. We replace him with who? Some schlub who's not as good? Somebody who also would not have won in the playoffs against long odds? What's the point? People clamor for change for its own sake without considering what the alternative might look like. To the last question, what I'm suggesting is that they'd win fewer regular season games with a different coach. Under various circumstances, that would mean missing the playoffs. For one, after Deng was traded last year, I bet that team crumbles under 95% of head coaches.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Mar 10, 2015 -> 02:29 PM) 2010-2011 they achieved their ceiling and lost to a better team. Based on roster alone they should have beaten the 76ers in 2011-2012 for sure. But obviously there's a huge emotional component to losing Rose in the first game. In 2012-2013, beating the Nets was probably a slight over achievement. But nothing earth shattering. Neither team was very good 2013-2014 they totally ran out of gas and lost to a better, younger, more energetic and athletic Wizards. Exactly. I would argue that no coach could have won those series. Just because Thibs isn't a miracle worker doesn't mean he hasn't maxed out his teams' potential.

Of the playoff series the Bulls have lost under Thibs, which should they have won with their roster at the time, and how much would it have mattered had they won?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Mar 10, 2015 -> 12:47 PM) Interesting idea, but wouldn't people who just spam Abreu/LaRoche rather than vary their picks get more points? There should be some sort of "Abreu twice per week" limit.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:48 AM) Is there a plausible alternative in this situation though? Probably not, or it's for somebody smarter than me to figure out. You could get rid of any kind of draft and make everyone a free agent right away. That's the fairest solution depending on your perspective, but obviously it'll never happen.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:43 AM) has there been any affect in XBT % going up and offense? Correlation between XBT% and runs last year was 17%, so not meaningless, but obviously less important compared to the big boys such as OBP (80%) and homers (58%). Fun fact: the correlation of runs and sac bunts was -41%. Almost makes me wanna bring back the STOP BUNTING banner for my sig.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:36 AM) The arguments will be driven by Rodon's performance. If he doesn't show he is ready, there is no argument for the media to make. I agree with you in theory, but I think the media has shown it doesn't need much to run with this one. A few bad outings in a row might quiet things down temporarily, but after the next good one the takes will be just as hot. QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 9, 2015 -> 10:36 AM) Did you read paul sullivan's terrible article where he's basically claiming sox are idiots if he's not up right away because Sullivan saw one 2-inning spring training? Not the whole thing, I only read the SSS criticism of it. And yes, Sullivan is a piece of work and that's a ridiculous thing to say. MLB should change the service time rules because they're silly, but until they do, the Sox - and every team - should ride that bus to its full extent. EDIT: And yes, I know MLB can't just do that. You know what I mean.