OmarComing25

So in other words nothing we didn't know already.

QUOTE (SexiAlexei @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 04:08 PM) I heard this interview. It was on Waddle and Silvy. Arrieta said some guy messaged him saying he didn't get a no-no because Castro's error should have been ruled a hit. Arrieta claims he thought he clicked to reply just to this one guy, and didn't realize it was going out to everyone. That makes a lot more sense than him calling out Castro.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 04:10 PM) The SCORE uses a term called bum slayer for guys like Joakim Noah but isn't that exactly what the cubs are? That lineup beats bad pitching but gets handled rather easily by good pitching. I guess maybe that is all of baseball who knows. I'm thinking it's the strikeouts. When I have some time later I'll look closer to see how high strikeout offenses have fared against good pitching, I would think they're more susceptible to being put down.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) Come on... you can't call these guys "solid" and whatnot when they've barely played. I'll give you Iglesias, Holt, and probably Bogaerts. The rest are overrated. What's wrong with Betts? He's put up 3.4 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR this year, has a .771 OPS at the age of 22, is a solid defender and rates very well on the basepaths.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 11:05 AM) Part of his ERA problem was having zero spring training. Using his higher than normal ERA as a defensive failure is incorrect IMO. He has had his games where he has been ripped very hard. I'm not saying it's all defense, but when all your starting pitchers have a pretty big gap between their FIP and ERA, there's clearly something there. If you look closer, all the pitchers on our team that are significantly underperforming their FIPs have higher flyball rates with the exception of Dan Jennings. The guys who have bigger groundball rates (mostly the bullpen pitchers) either have smaller gaps or are outperforming their FIPs. Our infield defense has overall been OK, and much better since Saladino came up. Our outfield defense has been really awful, so it makes sense that our pitchers that have higher flyball rates are getting burned a lot more by our horrible defenders in the outfield (and bad defense in the outfield means almost every extra hit given up is going for extra bases). When it's consistent across multiple pitchers on the same team, then it's clearly a trend. Also, it's not like Sale has established a career trend where he's consistently underperformed his peripherals. So I'm not saying his higher than usual ERA is 100% on the defense, but they've definitely been a big culprit here.

I think this is the year that has soured me a bit on ERA. Sale is on pace to easily have the worst ERA of his career, but by pretty much any other metric he's having easily the best year of his career. Strikeouts are way up, walks are down, and if you look at his batted ball profile he's easily giving up the weakest contact of his career this year. Career-best FIP and SIERA, and he's throwing a lot more innings/start this season too. Problem is his .321 BABIP, which is significantly higher than his career average. Quintana also has a crazy high BABIP (.343, second highest in the majors after Gio Gonzalez), yet according to his batted ball profile he's also giving up the weakest contact of his career.

So Sale and Quintana this year both have BABIPs significantly higher than last year, but I looked up their batted ball data and they've actually given up weaker contact this year. I don't get it.

It's funny because while this is looking to easily be the worst ERA of his career this year, it's also going to be easily the best FIP of his career too.

If he really does mean Castro that is pretty bizarre. Why would you publicly call him out on Twitter?

I don't have a problem with LaRoche in the lineup. If we have any hope of contending next year he needs to turn things around.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 09:34 AM) It's interesting to think about next year and ways to get better immediately. Our pitching staff looks relatively set for the next couple years and should be much better with a defensively sound team behind them. Do you keep Sanchez at second and Saladino at third? Both rate out extremely well in terms of their defensive abilities. Do you see a bigger platoon between Eaton and TNT? Do you take all this money coming off the books in the next couple seasons and go after a big fish like Heyward? He immediately makes this team much better defensively. White Sox starting pitchers have a 4.23 ERA and a 3.67 FIP, no other rotation has such a huge difference. The interesting thing to note is the A's are actually outperforming their FIP (3.24 ERA, 3.65 FIP), yet their defense is ranked 28th and not too far ahead of ours. I have a potential theory to explain some of that difference. The A's poor defense has mostly come from the infield, while their outfield defense is just a tad below average. Meanwhile, our outfield defense has been completely dreadful, while our infield defense hasn't been nearly as bad. When your infielders have poor range, you'll give up some more extra-base hits, but a lot of the extra hits will just be singles. However, a poor defensive outfield means almost every extra hit you're giving up is going for extra bases. Interestingly, our relievers have outperformed their FIP (3.35 ERA, 3.73 FIP). However, this can probably partially be explained by all the groundball pitchers we have in the pen who are causing hitters to hit balls to our strong(er) defenders. However, our rotation gives up a significantly higher percentage of flyballs than our bullpen does, and they're getting burned by our horrific outfield defense. A guy like Heyward would alleviate this problem considerably.

Schwarber's last 15 games: .148/.246/.389, 22 Ks Not saying he won't still be a monster for years to come, but can we wait for him to play more than 50 games in his career before anointing him as the centerpiece of the next Murderer's Row (or saying we should have picked him over Rodon)?

The Cubs are 74-56 with a +22 run differential (13th overall). The A's have a +18 run differential yet are 58-74. Baseball is weird.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 08:04 PM) More Cubs brilliance. They add solid pieces without dipping into their farm system cache. I'm pretty sure you're incapable of posting without talking about how something is "genius", "brilliant", or "the greatest thing ever". QUOTE (Middle Buffalo @ Aug 31, 2015 -> 08:39 PM) ESPN Chicago poll of best pitcher in Chicago (as of 2 minutes ago): Jake Arrietta - 62% Chris Sale - 38% Not sure I agree with that. Arrieta has certainly made this race a lot closer than it was at the beginning of the year, but Sale is still the clear winner right now. Those same voters would probably (incorrectly) vote Greinke over Kershaw too.

White Sox defensive ranks over the last 7 years (ERA rank in parentheses): 2015: 30th (17th) 2014: 28th (27th) 2013: 22nd (20th) 2012: 8th (19th) 2011: 20th (19th) 2010: 27th (18th) 2009: 25th (7th) Not as much of a correlation as I would have thought, but being 28th in defense over the past 7 years can't have helped our ERA. From 2009-2015 our pitching is 20th in ERA but 2nd in fWAR.

Being "brutally honest" also doesn't necessarily mean you're right in what you're saying or make your opinion suddenly more valid.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:46 PM) Have you looked at us recently? We are a mirror image of both of those clubs. Man you sure do whine a lot. The outlook is not as bleak as you claim.

To guarantee that Sale will have a sub-2 ERA in the NL seems pretty silly. But a 2-2.25 ERA is not at all unreasonable. He has a 2.47 FIP over the last two seasons, and adding in the usual NL discount we should expect an ERA in the low 2s.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:22 PM) agreed but I would be willing to bet anyone the Cubs don't win the Series this year. I'd be willing to bet anyone that any particular team won't win it all, odds are always going to be in your favor if you take the field. This isn't the NBA where Golden State is getting favorable odds in Vegas to win a title at the beginning of the playoffs.

If you're the Cubs do you try to extend Arrieta right now? At the rate he's going he's going to get a hefty sum in 2018.

Honestly it's foolhardy to make predictions on what will happen in the playoffs. Baseball is just so random anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised. A team could win 115 games 5 straight seasons and never get out of the first round. On the other hand, a mediocre team could get hot and win it all due to some scrub playing over his head. The quality of the team means less in the baseball playoffs than in any other sport. You just have to get in.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:05 PM) I have more of an idea for offense, but how is that figured out for pitchers? Seems ridiculous if the difference between Sale and Arrieta is almost same between Arrieta and Q. It's based mostly on FIP. According to advanced metrics Sale and Kluber have been the two best pitchers in the AL this year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 10:01 AM) So if you're going to max out your salary spending you darn well better have a team that has some room to survive a couple players underperforming or getting hurt! And we've even been unbelievably lucky this year on health too! We've been lucky on injuries, yeah, but we also consistently have one of the healthiest teams every year, that's not an accident.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 09:36 AM) The rebuild was going fine until they decided to take a U-turn last winter and sign a bunch of veteran stiffs. You can look at the rebuild of the Astros and Cubs ans most of their talent was not acquired from trades. It was acquired from signings of international players and through the astute drafting. Yes the Cubs got their ace from a trade but that was from a trade anything should do – Dumping a mediocre veteran in July for a young player. Again that's another thing Sox simply did not do over the last year. The Cubs only got two of their pieces on the current team through the draft, every other major piece came through free agency or a trade (Rizzo, Arrieta, Russell, Montero, Fowler, Lester, Hammel, every good pitcher in their bullpen). Soler was an international signing but he has a negative WAR this year and is not one of the reasons for their success.

Even if Trayce can only put up an OPS of .650ish, if he plays good defense and is average on the basepaths then that is already a better option than Avi.