OmarComing25

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 12:06 AM) 4th pick would be a disappointment after that tear down. After the top3 there usually is quite a drop off in quality plus you lose a million of pool money. Don't get me wrong 4th pick isn't bad but it probably means you are looking for a 4th starter or average regular hitter rather than a star. That probably means turang and singer are off the board and those are probably the two guys that stand out. I actually looked back at the last 20 years of picks and was surprised at how much of a dropoff there was after 2, but with this upcoming draft I don't think it will be that big of a deal. There does seem to be a lack of consensus about the top guys, guys like Keith Law aren't too high on Singer (and I know stats aren't everything but his college stats this year are pretty underwhelming) and Longenhagen has said there are a lot of questions about Turang's bat and that he wouldn't take him at the top of the draft. There was a ranking posted in the minor league forum that doesn't have either of those guys in the top 5 draft prospects (Turang at #8 and Singer not in the top 10). Of course someone could break away from the pack next spring but right now this draft seems pretty deep and there doesn't seem to be much of a difference among the top group of guys.

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 01:00 PM) Depending on sources, runner on first and no out has about a 43% chance of scoring. Runner on 2nd no out is 63% (different sources have slightly different numbers, but it around 40% to around 60% seems pretty consistent (there is also about a 20 point jump for 3rd over 2nd). Obviously the CS% is a huge factor. With out doing any analysis on it, I would have to say that 80% success is excessive. If a guy is hitting on 2/3 steals that could be hugely beneficial to the team. Please, don't get too hung up on this. I know it isn't perfect. It is just an example running the numbers made up off the top of my head right now. But... For example, a guy with 600 PA and an OBP of .322 (last year's avg) would have reached base 193 times in that season. If he steals 20 bags and is caught 10 times, basically simulating that he had made an out in his PA instead of getting on, it would effect his OBP by .017 points (from .322 to .305). So, last year, league average SLG was .417. In 600 ABs that would equate to 250 total bases. Adding on those 20 stolen bases as total bases (basically moving singles to doubles) would move a player with a .417 SLG to a SLG of .450. So a guy with an OBP of .322 and SLG of .417 (OPS of 739) turns into a guys with an OBP of .305 and a SLG of .450 (755 OPS). If he is successful on 2/3 SB attempts he essentially raises his OPS .14 by virtue of those steals. In this rough draft example the risk of those SBs outweighs the risk of being caught 10 times, at least with my screwy way of accounting for things. I know game situation matters here as well. Just a rough example, but this team has a couple guys with fairly elite speed, if they could use it well enough, it could be a weapon. And this season, where win totals didn't really matter, was a great opportunity to work on base stealing skills. But OBP is more important than SLG. I'd rather have the .322 OBP and .417 SLG than the .305 OBP and .450 SLG.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 12:13 PM) No, but I bet they were not hurting their team. That was Jose Abreu's point though, it's all about the efficiency. Any base stealer stealing at a 90% clip is going to be helping his team.

Unless we go like 6-1 next week I highly doubt the Reds catch us, #4 is fine. There doesn't seem to be much separating the top 5 or so draft prospects right now anyway.

Great slide by Anderson.

15/16 for Anderson in stolen bases.

I wouldn't have minded a win on the back of a dominant Fulmer start, but damn we just got baseballed.

Hoskins with another big hit. 2-run double, Phillies up 4-2 in the 5th.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) My gut tells me somewhere around 76-79 wins. Under .500 over the first half of the season, around or above .500 in the second half. That's my hope. Let the first half play out how it will, and then when Eloy and Kopech join the team at the halfway point play competitive enough ball in the 2nd half that this can be used as a selling point to sign one of the big free agents (Arenado?) and start the competitive window in 2019.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) There is absolutely no way Beer will fall outside of the top 10. He may be at the backend of that but his bat is unworldly. He won't fall far Given the recent dramatic shift in how teams value bat-only players these days I could definitely see him dropping that far.

If Astros hang on then the Sox would control their own destiny for the #1 pick.

Phillies win again

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Sep 20, 2017 -> 08:25 PM) He's been a lot like Frank Thomas his entire career. Frank was never as bad as Pujols has been this year. Frank was still a very good hitter the last few years of his career and even in 2008 he still put up a .349 OBP. Pujols has a .287 OBP this year.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 20, 2017 -> 08:23 PM) That's wild. I'm kinda surprised his wRC+ is so high. Elevated because of baserunning then? http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/ I don't think baserunning factors in, it's more his OBP that's driving it. And his BsR is currently only rated 0.1 anyway (though that seems low). EDIT: nevermind it does factor in.

With that HR Moncada has now surpassed Devers in wRC+. Pretty impressive considering where they both were just a couple weeks ago.

Only the 9th homer given up by Peacock on the year. That was destroyed.

Tying run at 2nd in the 9th with 2 outs. Presley strikes out, Tigers lose.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 20, 2017 -> 12:09 PM) I just checked the standings in the very first post (link to the site). Looks like half a game from second and 2 from 1st. Though we're tied in the win column with the Phillies (though it's really 1 back because we can't tie them) and 1 back from the Giants.

That .186 BABIP and 90% LOB isn't going to last and I'd like to see him get more Ks (though the swinging strike% seems fine) but obviously it's hard not to be encouraged by him so far. The lack of walks is nice to see, though when he misses his location he seems to miss by a lot. The curveball doesn't look that great but that might not matter because his changeup looks really good.

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 20, 2017 -> 11:38 AM) Surprised that there is no Joey Gallo reference. Because Joey Gallo is actually good. He has a 125 wRC+ and ~3 WAR on the season, he is way better than every other hitter mentioned in the article, he clearly does not belong in that group.

Phillies with a comeback win, thank you Hoskins.

I think the juiced ball played a factor back then too. Homeruns league wide spiked pretty much overnight from 1995-1996. I don't think the league all just started using steroids at the same time.

From Longenhagen's chat today: Dooduh 12:18 Name 5 minor league catchers you see as ML regulars 5 years from now (not counting Mejia). Eric A Longenhagen 12:21 I'll say Sisco, Collins, Stephenson, Haase, Trevino Anthony 12:23 So at this time last year you hyped up Acuna as a potential top 10 guy a year from now. Anyone you could see making that type of jump this timev around? Eric A Longenhagen 12:24 Yeah, I had him in the 30s on the overall top 100 last offseason (I think?) so I'll look to that range on my SUmmer 100 for a name... 12:25 I could see a breakout Leody Taveras year or a summer of Luis Robert raking through three levels happening.

This team has so much speed

Lopez has 3 strikeouts in his last 17 innings, that's not going to work.