Burdi isn't a "ceiling" closer. He has three pitches.

He might have three pitches, but I'd be stunned if the Sox use him as anything but a reliever. They've really given no indications of stretching him out. That could change this off-season, but it will be a pretty big thing to do to stretch out a guy who ha been pitching in relief in college and thus doesn't have a track record of throwing all those innings. Nothing wrong with that, but if the Sox think he can be a legit big league closer, I don't see them spinning their wheels trying to turn him into a starter as that will require pretty significant time in the minors and a lot more development, imo.

 

People can use Sale as an example, but Sale was a starter in college who they rested his arm and then stretched him out. Again, it absolutely could be something they work on and they can try to extend him in the pen, etc, just haven't seen much indication that they are going that route.

This is the exact path that the Sox followed with Chris Sale. Just because he is called up as a reliever today, doesn't mean he is a reliever forever.

I've said it quite a few times, but Sale is a poor example. He was a dominate starter in college.

 

Chris Sale pitched in 31 games (started 27 games) in his final two years in college (192.1 innings). Sale's high mark was 103 innings in on season (final season)

Zach Burdi pitched in 47 games (zero starts) in his final two years of college (59.1 innings). His high mark was 30 innings in one season (final season).

 

There is a big difference in the sense that one guy was a starter for two years and the other guy has started since high school.

Previous players drafted at pick #26 have nothing to do with Zack Burdi. Just tossing that out.

Edited August 17, 20169 yr by soxfan2014

Nope, I am not of that mind at all. But I do understand where GreenSox is going with all of this, which is that in the first round it does stand to reason that you would be far more motivated to select a talent along the lines of a potential future star position player or starting pitcher, before going after a reliever. So if we passed on a future Syndergaard or an Aaron Judge or Michael Kopech in favor of a reliever, then we better hope said reliever turns out to be closer to the Goose Gossages and Bruce Sutters of the world, or else this pick could look like a missed opportunity.

Then you must be really happy you aren't a Cubs fan or Indians fan or Red Sox fan. Look at all the minor league talent they gave up for relief pitchers.

He might have three pitches, but I'd be stunned if the Sox use him as anything but a reliever. They've really given no indications of stretching him out. That could change this off-season, but it will be a pretty big thing to do to stretch out a guy who ha been pitching in relief in college and thus doesn't have a track record of throwing all those innings. Nothing wrong with that, but if the Sox think he can be a legit big league closer, I don't see them spinning their wheels trying to turn him into a starter as that will require pretty significant time in the minors and a lot more development, imo.

 

People can use Sale as an example, but Sale was a starter in college who they rested his arm and then stretched him out. Again, it absolutely could be something they work on and they can try to extend him in the pen, etc, just haven't seen much indication that they are going that route.

I don't think he is going to start either, in fact it seemed Hostetler basically admitted that in his interview with rabbit. Still, if he is good, its a great pick. There are a ton of misses at that point in the draft.

Previous players drafted at pick #26 have nothing to do with Zack Burdi. Just tossing that out.

 

I don't really think his draft number should matter at all if he comes in and is a nails closer for his entire career. Some people just want to get butt hurt about draft position as if another position player or starter would have been a better pick, regardless of future success.

 

Burdi is pitching like he is damn near untouchable, that is not a bad thing

No I'm not missing the point, just taking your silly argument to a ridiculous end.

 

 

It was reported that scouts thought he could possibly be a starter and even reports that the Sox intended to make him one. Spending a couple years attempting to make him a top of the rotation starter is a much better option with minimal downside. After a year or two if that didn't work just make him a reliever again. The extra innings of experience would serve him well anyway.

My silly argument that if the guy is a player, he isn't a stupid pick. Gottcha. Just look at what teams give up for top relievers these days. It's a lot more than a #26 pick.

Previous players drafted at pick #26 have nothing to do with Zack Burdi. Just tossing that out.

No but it shows there are a lot of misses at that point in the draft. By every team. If he is a contributing reliever, he was a nice selection. If he's elite, he was a steal.

 

 

It reminds me of when the Bears drafted Kyle Long in the first round. Many were irate, you don't draft a guard in the first round. One quote was he doesn't provide enough value. Well, maybe sometimes you should.

Edited August 17, 20169 yr by Dick Allen

No but it shows there are a lot of misses at that point in the draft. By every team. If he is a contributing reliever, he was a nice selection. If he's elite, he was a steal.

 

Yeah. Next year, I just hope he's either the closer with Robertson salary moved or he's working as a starter. Or hell, both those scenarios happening would be fine with me. No problem with him being a great reliever, I would just like to see if he can start first.

Edited August 17, 20169 yr by soxfan2014

I've said it quite a few times, but Sale is a poor example. He was a dominate starter in college.

 

Chris Sale pitched in 31 games (started 27 games) in his final two years in college (192.1 innings). Sale's high mark was 103 innings in on season (final season)

Zach Burdi pitched in 47 games (zero starts) in his final two years of college (59.1 innings). His high mark was 30 innings in one season (final season).

 

There is a big difference in the sense that one guy was a starter for two years and the other guy has started since high school.

 

The Sox have been amazing at converting and stretching starters. If anyone can do it, it will be them. Even if it doesn't happen, with what a closer is worth today, you have got to reevaluate the old idea of what relievers are worth in the draft. I mean look what a pending free agent wife beater was worth on the open market.

The Sox have been amazing at converting and stretching starters. If anyone can do it, it will be them. Even if it doesn't happen, with what a closer is worth today, you have got to reevaluate the old idea of what relievers are worth in the draft. I mean look what a pending free agent wife beater was worth on the open market.

Look what Boston gave up for Kimbrel, and what Cleveland gave up for Miller.

 

I am starting to think the bullpen is becoming the most important part of a team. Are there many bad teams with a good bullpen?

Look what Boston gave up for Kimbrel, and what Cleveland gave up for Miller.

 

I am starting to think the bullpen is becoming the most important part of a team. Are there many bad teams with a good bullpen?

 

Look at how the Sox were when the bullpen was on fire to start the year.

A top 20 reliever is worth about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR

A top 20 starter is worth about 5 WAR

A top 20 reliever is worth about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR

A top 20 starter is worth about 5 WAR

 

You can look a worth in two different ways. You can look at it as a statistician, or you can look at it as an accountant. We can see the kind of contracts that top notch closers are getting. We can also see the personnel packages that are being given for closers. I think their worth on the open market far surpasses their WAR value.

A top 20 reliever is worth about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR

A top 20 starter is worth about 5 WAR

KC got away with having a very mediocre rotation with a lockdown bullpen. Cleveland and Detroit have been burned even with top 20 starters in their rotations, by bad bullpens in recent years. Games aren't won and lost based on WAR alone. Is it coincidence the Sox went from one of the best records in baseball to crap once their bullpen fell apart? A loss is a loss. A win a win. Just ask Jose Quintana.

Edited August 17, 20169 yr by Dick Allen

The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Zack Greinke, $34,416,666 (2016-21)

2. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22)

3. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

4. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

5. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

6. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

7. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

… Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23)

9. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

10. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

 

Relief pitchers

The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)

2. Rafael Soriano, $14,000,000 (2013-14)

3. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)

… Jonathan Papelbon, $12,500,000 (2012-15)

5. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)

6. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)

7. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

8. Rafael Soriano, $11,666,667 (2011-13)

9. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)

. . . David Robertson, $11,500,000 (2015-18) ouch

 

A top 20 reliever is worth about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR

A top 20 starter is worth about 5 WAR

WAR ignores context and doesn't appropriately value relievers who can shut down opponents in high leverage situations. I'd rather have a top 20 starter no doubt, but there's a reason teams are paying up the ass for elite relievers.

The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Zack Greinke, $34,416,666 (2016-21)

2. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22)

3. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

4. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

5. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

6. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

7. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

… Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23)

9. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

10. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

 

Relief pitchers

The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)

2. Rafael Soriano, $14,000,000 (2013-14)

3. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)

… Jonathan Papelbon, $12,500,000 (2012-15)

5. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)

6. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)

7. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

8. Rafael Soriano, $11,666,667 (2011-13)

9. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)

. . . David Robertson, $11,500,000 (2015-18) ouch

You want to even it up or even flip it? Figure out what they get paid per inning.

Burdi isn't a "ceiling" closer. He has three pitches.

Then work him as a starter. If he has starter skills, then Williams and Hahn are devaluing him in the pen. Not that devaluation of their own players is anything new out of these 2....

Edited August 17, 20169 yr by GreenSox

Then work him as a starter. If he has starter skills, then Williams and Hahn are devaluing him in the pen. Not that devaluation of their own players is anything new out of these 2....

Aren't you the guy who devalued Adam Eaton last year?

The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Zack Greinke, $34,416,666 (2016-21)

2. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22)

3. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

4. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

5. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

6. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

7. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

… Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23)

9. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

10. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

 

Relief pitchers

The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)

2. Rafael Soriano, $14,000,000 (2013-14)

3. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)

… Jonathan Papelbon, $12,500,000 (2012-15)

5. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)

6. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)

7. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

8. Rafael Soriano, $11,666,667 (2011-13)

9. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)

. . . David Robertson, $11,500,000 (2015-18) ouch

 

The spread between the highest salaries isn't as big as the spread between WARs.

I think an argument can be made that late inning relievers should get a little bump in value due to the high leverage situations they pitch in.

Alec Hansen is looking like a nice pick.

Aren't you the guy who devalued Adam Eaton last year?

Didn't devalue him. Wanted to trade him when his value was at a premium. Still do. Buy low, sell high works a lot better than the Williams/Hahn buy high, sell low approach.

Didn't devalue him. Wanted to trade him when his value was at a premium. Still do. Buy low, sell high works a lot better than the Williams/Hahn buy high, sell low approach.

 

Yet he has already well surpassed his 2015 value, so you would not have been selling him at the right time. He has a chance at 6 WAR, which is considered MVP-discussion level.