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Jose Abreu with 1st Sox cycle in 17 years


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QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 03:56 AM)
What'd he say about me?!

Nothing bad. You can hate on greg but have to admit I do not insult people. Never.

 

QUOTE (shipps @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 02:08 PM)
No but when someone floats around opinions such as Tim Anderson should be moved to catcher people tend to not want to waste their time reading that.

Why? Opinions are like cups of coffee. You drink them in, respond to whether the coffee was good or not this day and move on. If the opinion offered differs from yours it's supposed to at least test your response mechanism for a few seconds then your day continues.

 

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 05:05 PM)
To be fair, there were a lot of posts about him being bad or at least well on his way to being bad. It wasn't just Ronnie Woo Woo and his annual Abreu is DFA-worthy thread.

Thank you Dick. This is the way it is with many of my posts. Somebody once in a while points out, uh, my concerns are REAL. Thanx Dick.

 

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 05:11 PM)
It looks like Jose is going to go over 150 games played and over 4 fWAR. Great season from El Oso. Yes Greg, I'm also impressed that he's going to drive in over 100 again as well. Jose is one of the few guys I've watched that is a legit RBI guy. He changes his approach with runners on and less than two outs and usually it results in a well placed line drive and an RBI. He is not up there looking to walk or drive in 5 runs with one swing -- and his approach works.

Jose please start a Jose appreciation thread and lets see how many respond in kind fashion. Thanx Chitown. I loved your post.

Edited by greg775
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Jose has played very well as far as hitting is concerned through a lot of losing and deserves credit.

 

Based on RH's comments it will be interesting to see what happens moving forward. Much will depend I think on what Jose wants salary-wise and in length of a deal.

 

Phil Rogers wrote this today on the Sox web site:

 

"Abreu wants to stay long term. He's made that clear. Don't be surprised if Hahn offers him a four- or five-year package this winter, which would keep him around through 2021 or '22. If he turns it down, intent to chase maximum value when he reaches the free-agent market, then the White Sox will probably shop him."

Edited by Lip Man 1
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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 11:02 AM)
Jose has played very well as far as hitting is concerned through a lot of losing and deserves credit.

 

Based on RH's comments it will be interesting to see what happens moving forward. Much will depend I think on what Jose wants salary-wise and in length of a deal.

 

Phil Rogers wrote this today on the Sox web site:

 

"Abreu wants to stay long term. He's made that clear. Don't be surprised if Hahn offers him a four- or five-year package this winter, which would keep him around through 2021 or '22. If he turns it down, intent to chase maximum value when he reaches the free-agent market, then the White Sox will probably shop him."

 

I could see Abreu taking a modest 3/4 year deal to stay. Maybe a 3/45 works?

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QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 11:29 AM)
5 years $75M is what I think he asks for paid as follows

 

$20M

$20M

$15M

$10M

$10M

 

Good luck to him then, I don't think theres any chance he gets that. It seems that teams are learning not to pay big/long money for DH's on the wrong side of 30.

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QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 11:29 AM)
5 years $75M is what I think he asks for paid as follows

 

$20M

$20M

$15M

$10M

$10M

Jose can pack his bags if he asks for that. One great year shouldn't overshadow the last 2 mediocre years. He was a middle of the road 1st basemen who can't field his position. Factor his age into that. No way Jose.

 

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 11:37 AM)
Is that also covering his 2 remaining arb years?

 

Since he opted out of his original contract, yes any extension would cover his arb years.

 

We could go

 

2018- $10m

2019- $14m

2020- $18m

2021- $18m option ($3m buyout)

 

3/45 guaranteed or up to 4/60

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 12:04 PM)
Jose can pack his bags if he asks for that. One great year shouldn't overshadow the last 2 mediocre years. He was a middle of the road 1st basemen who can't field his position. Factor his age into that. No way Jose.

 

And over those two "mediocre" seasons fangraphs still valued him at $40M. He made less than half that.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 12:16 PM)
And over those two "mediocre" seasons fangraphs still valued him at $40M. He made less than half that.

Good point. I looked it up and his 2015 season was better than I remembered. His war regressed every year up until this year, though.

 

2014: 5.3 war

2015: 3.2 war

2016: 1.8 war

 

I'm not signing Jose after he has this great year. Chances are he regresses. Give him another year to prove himself before a long term contract. Of you are reading this Hahn, don't give him the aforementioned contract that pays him up to 20m a year.

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 12:25 PM)
Good point. I looked it up and his 2015 season was better than I remembered. His war regressed every year up until this year, though.

 

2014: 5.3 war

2015: 3.2 war

2016: 1.8 war

 

I'm not signing Jose after he has this great year. Chances are he regresses. Give him another year to prove himself before a long term contract. Of you are reading this Hahn, don't give him the aforementioned contract that pays him up to 20m a year.

 

Literally no one has suggested the White Sox pay Abreu $20 million a year. Harry Chappas suggested they pay him $20 million over the next 2 years as part of a front loaded contract to offset the costs, while paying him $10 million in the final 2 years, allowing the Sox to spend more in the short term when they have an excess of funds while having more actual money to use later on.

 

Because it would be a $15 million per year average, the cost of the contract would be $15 million per year towards the luxury tax, but by front loading it, it allows the Sox that much more money over the final two years of the deal, potentially allowing them to run a $160 million payroll even though they would only actually be paying $155 million.

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Since we're discussing Jose's salary and worth, I looked up some things. Here is how my mind works as an eye test, traditional stat guy and not an advanced stat guy and also NOT an age guy. Many people on this site (most?) are advanced stat people, definitely age people and definitely not eye test people.

 

Jose turns 31 in January. So because of him being old by "new" age baseball standards, I'm of the opinion 'most' Sox fans would not want to pay him anything significant. He's ARB the next two years and free agent in 2020. There's no way in hell any new-age fan is going to want to sign him for the 2020 season at anything more than 8-10 million a year. Tell me if I'm wrong. My point is: They'll be OK if he gets paid decent bucks in arb. the next two seasons as we continue to lose, but if fans have their way NO WAY JOSE will be part of the rebuild.

 

My question to you is ... some teams still will sign guys like Jose. Why in the hell would they do that entering his age 34 season? We're not the only organization that has an advanced stat fan base and front office that considers anybody over 32 OLD OLD OLD. So who is gonna pay these guys? What teams will want a 34 year old Jose at the 15-20 a mill pricetag in 2020? I would say by then Sox fans would be OK with 6-10 mill a year MAX for Jose going forward.

 

Now Please comment on these Royals.

 

Hosmer: Free agent turns 28 in October. Hmmm, most fans would be in favor of signing him 3 years max at about 20 mill a year. After that he's getting old. What do you say he's worth? Is Boras going to get him a Verlander like deal? Do the big money teams give him 7 years, 25 to 30 mill a year?? He'll be mighty old at the end of that 7 year deal.

Moustakas: Free agent turned 29 on Sept. 11. Hmmm, getting old by fan standards. Again, I'd suspect most fans would be 'OK' with 3 years at 15-20 mill a year for Moustakas. What team is gonna give him 7 year deal at 20 to 25 mill a year?? He'll be 36 and a bum at the end of that deal if you go by the age police.

Finally, Cain: Free agent turns 32 in April. My gosh that is OLDDDDDDD. He has good advanced stats this year, horrible traditional stats of 49 RBI. Now according to the new wave baseball age police he's way too old to get a good deal now. Fans happy with 8 mill a year the next 3 years? But will the Mets or Yankees or somebody give him a 6-year deal at 18-20 mill a year?? What say you? I want to be educated on how age factors in what fans think nowadays.

 

Don't forget, Cespedes got a 4 year deal at about 26 mill a year last offseason. He's been hurt. Had a horrible year by traditional stats, good WAR.

Edited by greg775
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Jose Abreu has skills that don't always age particularly well, while Lorenzo Cain does. Guys who are slow plodders with limited defensive skills do not age well. When Albert Pujols signed with the Angels, he was still one of the best hitters in the game. As it stands, he's one of the worst all around players in the game. That's why there is fear.

 

Jose Abreu is a good player and will likely provide positive value until he is 36 or 37. There is reason to look to sign Abreu to an extension.

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