Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Jose Abreu]

If signing Manny Machado means the White Sox will not be able to add other big pieces, they are screwed anyway.

It doesn't. Even if you add a $30 million AAV to our 2019 roster, you're still looking at under triple digits in terms of team payroll. We all know that Jerry is willing to go (and has gone) far above that number when we're trying to compete.

[Dick Allen]

It doesn't. Even if you add a $30 million AAV to our 2019 roster, you're still looking at under triple digits in terms of team payroll. We all know that Jerry is willing to go (and has gone) far above that number when we're trying to compete.

The problem is, guys if they are as great as we hope, start to become more expensive in a couple of seasons, and they have to keep an eye out for that.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Lillian]

Just to clarify: I certainly do not think that Moustakas is a better player than Machado. However, I'm not sure that Machado is a better value, at $35 Million, per year, than Moustakas, at $12 Million per year. Those numbers are merely speculation, but they illustrate my point.

[Bob Sacamano]

That deal would make zero sense of the Sox, you are paying a guy for two seasons that you don't anticipate being competitive and then lose a draft pick that could well be a contributor in your anticipated window of contention. If the Sox give a five year deal, there could not be an opt out.

 

I am not all that interested in Moustakas anyway. He flashed Richard Hidalgo like power last season, but his career numbers don't seem to support that output being sustainable. I am more inclined to wait on Burger and see if he can be a solution rather than dumping a bunch of money and a pick on a guy that has been as inconsistent as they come.

 

Oh I agree. It doesn't make sense. But at this point in time, that's probably the type of deal he will end up getting from someone to come out as a win for Boras.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

No, no, no, and no.

 

No.

[Dick Allen]

Just to clarify: I certainly do not think that Moustakas is a better player than Machado. However, I'm not sure that Machado is a better value, at $35 Million, per year, than Moustakas, at $12 Million per year. Those numbers are merely speculation, but they illustrate my point.

A lot of other stuff would go into a Machado signing. The PR alone is probably worth something. But they have to be realistic. It isn't like they will be up against the Padres and Braves to sign him. It's going to be the big guys. And it may even be a team that loses out on Harper thinking well we did allocate these funds, why don't we just add him, and make him fit on their team. I know the White Sox are not operating like they used to. But I still fail to see how anyone can be optimistic about their chances of signing him. And then you move on to Donaldson, who is a heck of a player, but will be older, more expensive, and does have some personality issues. If Moustakas' price drops to where it makes sense to have him on the roster for a worthless season, you can re-allocate all that money on other, sure to be there, holes.

[Eminor3rd]

My point is, first you used incorrect numbers. Second, he's probably entering an area where he is a good buy. Most projections have him between 2.5 and 3.0 WAR for 2018. He was 10th for 3B in wRC+, a stat you find important. The top 9 aren't available for a second round draft pick. If the White Sox are being realistic about signing Manny Machado, and I would love if they did, it means they have a ton of money to spend. Moustakas at a discount, shouldn't hurt adding more players. They are going to need several when it is all said and done.

 

Moustakas can play 1B and DH as well, and could be a replacement down the road for a guy like Abreu. Someone whose WAR and wRC+ trended down until his age 30 season.

 

If signing Manny Machado means the White Sox will not be able to add other big pieces, they are screwed anyway.

 

First, as I stated in the first post where I mentioned the ranking, I used a table with a minimum PA number of 50 to find the 107 rank. This is important so that you don't ignore mid-season call-ups. Which did you use?

 

Second, everyone is entirely ignoring context with this signing. If you are making a signing now for the sake of the future, you need to consider the player's performance in the FUTURE. As has been pointed out several times by several posters in this thread, Moustakas is currently 29 years old and has already shown signs of decline. There is no reason to believe his defense will get better with age. His primary contribution (power), is more abundant in today's run environment than ever before.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The problem is, guys if they are as great as we hope, start to become more expensive in a couple of seasons, and they have to keep an eye out for that.

Exactly. Since the Sox keep talking about sustaining success future payroll has to be a consideration and 1 guy making $30+ AAV is going to become a problem. The Sox aren't the Yanks, Dodgers .Red Sox etc.

 

Even the most optimistic of us regarding the rebuild have to know there are going to be injuries, failed prospects and a very young group of starting pitchers who will be inconsistent or never as good as we might hope. One elite starting pitcher an elite position player and one elite reliever will add a ton of money to payroll . Look at how the Cubs signed Lester, Heyward and then Chapman . The Yankees just picked up a decent chunk of Stanton's contract and traded for Kahnle and Robertson . Astros traded for Verlander and put $100M into signing Reddick and Gurriel .

 

There's no such thing as too much talent and if it can come at a discount now (Boras be damned) it should be a consideration. Maybe waiting till the last minute and trading or supplementing the roster when its more apparent where the holes are is the way to go but there will be a premium in trades and FA money to pay when you wait .

Edited February 21, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

I'm with Jack Parkman.

 

If you only followed baseball media rumors in a vacuum without knowing team moves you would think the White Sox this winter were aggressively trying to upgrade their position players and pitching.

 

If you only followed the white sox transaction log you would think the white sox have no interest in big moves this year and are just going to let players find themselves.

 

I am not going to get tricked by the former. Hahn isn't going to say "we are not signing anyone even if it makes sense", why would he, he could also be establishing a good relationship with an agent by fomenting rumors for Moustakas, but everything the sox have done this offseason has not indicated they are going to take a bigger player like this.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'm with Jack Parkman.

 

If you only followed baseball media rumors in a vacuum without knowing team moves you would think the White Sox this winter were aggressively trying to upgrade their position players and pitching.

 

If you only followed the white sox transaction log you would think the white sox have no interest in big moves this year and are just going to let players find themselves.

 

I am not going to get tricked by the former. Hahn isn't going to say "we are not signing anyone even if it makes sense", why would he, he could also be establishing a good relationship with an agent by fomenting rumors for Moustakas, but everything the sox have done this offseason has not indicated they are going to take a bigger player like this.

This is where I am . I think the Sox want one more good draft and to get a longer look at the boys on the bubble at the ML level. Also see how Burger, Rutherford, Robert basically the whole minor league system goes this year. There's just too much evaluating left to do before making moves.

[Princess Dye]

It would be a win-later move to act now and get a multiyear deal done for someone at low prices in later years of the deal.

 

Provided the guy is not old.

 

Moustakas may not be that guy though. I dont know that anyone who's left is.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It would be a win-later move to act now and get a multiyear deal done for someone at low prices in later years of the deal.

 

Provided the guy is not old.

 

Moustakas may not be that guy though. I dont know that anyone who's left is.

Not only is there Machado , Donaldson next year but Arenado and Anthony Rendon the following year. No one ever brings up Rendon but I remember wanting the Sox to trade for him years ago and he is very good .

Edited February 21, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Jerksticks]

I think I’m leaning towards throwing a bunch of money at Donaldson for a few years instead of less money to Moose for more years. Gives us the chance to see if Burger tears it up in 2028 or not.

[Bob Sacamano]

I think I’m leaning towards throwing a bunch of money at Donaldson for a few years instead of less money to Moose for more years. Gives us the chance to see if Burger tears it up in 2028 or not.

 

What year did you mean here?

[bmags]

I don't know, every GM is different but Theo was on the radio last week and said "We're done, Yu was our last move, we have a little flexibitiy right now but we're going to save that for the deadline and during the season."

 

Obviously the Cubs are in a much different spot, and GM's have different ideas on how to deal with the media. With that said, Hahn could have said "Right now we're OK with the group we have here in Arizona, we want to see what they all bring to the table" and be done with it.

 

Hahn always equivocates though, and says we are looking at our current guys on the field for our 25 man roster.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There's this for those expecting tanking for picks to work https://thejunkballdaily.com/2018/01/29/tan...eball-worth-it/

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

First, as I stated in the first post where I mentioned the ranking, I used a table with a minimum PA number of 50 to find the 107 rank. This is important so that you don't ignore mid-season call-ups. Which did you use?

 

Second, everyone is entirely ignoring context with this signing. If you are making a signing now for the sake of the future, you need to consider the player's performance in the FUTURE. As has been pointed out several times by several posters in this thread, Moustakas is currently 29 years old and has already shown signs of decline. There is no reason to believe his defense will get better with age. His primary contribution (power), is more abundant in today's run environment than ever before.

Your initial post that I quoted said something to effect that the white sox are likely not a playoff caliber team in two years (2020) if Moose is hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you figure? And how do you define “middle of the lineup”? To me, that’s #3 thru #6. How many 2017 playoff teams regularly batted a guy #6 in their lineup last year with an OPS better than .835? Even if you are expecting a drop in performance two years from now, are you expecting it to be so dramatic that his OPS falls below say .750? Even after moving into a more hitter friendly park? For reference, the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they were batting Greg Bird in the #6 spot for most of their playoff games. That’s a team that made it to the ALCS and was one game away from knocking off the eventual champ. The guys NL playoff teams were rolling out in that spot in the order were even worse...

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And this is all based on the assumption that Moose’s market tanks and he can be had at a very affordable price this winter that does not prohibit future acquisitions to shore up other holes at the top of the order (i.e. leadoff spot assuming Moncada slots in at #2 long term). I think Abreu is a near lock for an extension and holding down the #3 spot. Avi is the big wild card right now. If last year was real he looks very nice as a #4/5 hitter long term. Obviously this year is a big year for him and for the Sox in determining if he is a critical piece for the next competitive window. Moose as an occasional #5 and regular #6 hitter would mean that this lineup is actually very competitve in a couple years imo. I guess I don’t see the big concern for a dramatic drop in his offensive performance over the next few years.

[username]

If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million.

 

These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million.

 

These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty.

I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future.

Edited February 21, 2018 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Chicago White Sox]

If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million.

 

These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty.

I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading.

[wrathofhahn]

The problem with Moose is he has the pick attached so signing him to a pillow contract doesn't work. I don't think the FO want longterm resources tied into him considering realistically his age and where the club is from a competitive stand point.

 

His best bet is probably to return to the Royals and come back next year with no pick attached when more clubs are prepared to spend. Problem is Moore has been sending out smoke signals for months he doesn't want him back. They want the pick.

 

It's a tough spot no obvious need for a contender and he costs teams a pick. Boras will have to work overtime on this one. The only team that sort of stands out is the Phillies Franco was awful last year and they signed Santana so they won't lose a pick.

[Chicago White Sox]

I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future.

I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Dick Allen]

I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading.

The Cubs can print money. Others can't. Their run probably lasts a bit longer. What will be interesting is how much White Sox revenues increase if they go on a run. What will they be able to afford etc.

 

Ricketts the other day mentioned the Cubs may remain with the White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks when their TV deal expires in 2019, which is good for the Sox. They would get a piece of the revenue the station makes off of the Cubs.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading.

But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan.