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Enlightened Speculation: Yankees AND Dodgers both going strong into FA


caulfield12

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Assuming one of them signs Cole (Dodgers/Yankees or another West Coast team)...opening up the possibility that one or both that miss out on Cole is going have to go "all in" on Rendon (despite the existing presence of Turner/Andujar)...

And the pressure the Nats are going to have to keep Strasburg and/or Rendon from BOTH leaving, the free agent market is definitely going to feature more suitors and 1) overall, MORE teams in 2020 with deep pockets, or 2) teams like the Cardinals/Brewers/Rays/Indians/A's/Twins without deep pockets but desperate to get an impact player over a shorter time commitment, such as Betts/JDM and 3) teams like the Angels, Rangers, Rockies, DBacks, Mets, Padres and White Sox with the ability to spend and/or desperation to make another "leap forward" in the standings in 2020.

 

Then there are the Cubs and Red Sox...as well as the Giants, who are kind of stuck "in between" at the moment.

Fascinating situation...but not exactly comforting, if you're a White Sox fan.

Edited by caulfield12
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The White Sox have slashed payroll the previous years so they could spend big on free agents when the time comes. They can still land big names players while having a middle of the pack payroll. No excuses. The typical "we tried" isn't going to fly this offseason. 

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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

market is threatening to create this "challenging market condition" that didn't exist last year in the Harpchado Sweepstakes...

Discuss/evaluate.

This is exactly why so many of us were clamoring for them to land a whale last off-season. It was a perfect storm of premium talent being available, payroll flexibility, and lack of big spenders to compete with. Not the case this year!

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1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

Link?

Common sense/logic.

Those two franchises really have NO CHOICE, especially with the end of Clayton Kershaw Era nearing, but certainly not his contract.

The Yankees, with the Red Sox spinning their wheels for at least one more year and Rays not having the financial resources to compete for the biggest prize...their fans are going to expect even more for the highest priced ticket in baseball.

 

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12 minutes ago, Good Guys said:

The Yankees might not have a lot of payroll flexibility this offseason if they care about staying under the luxury tax threshold.  

They're going to have to get creative with pitching, for sure....Gregorious and Gardner are free agents, and/or trying to dump Stanton's contract on someone for 30-50 cents on the dollar.  Not to mention Sabathia, Betances and Encarnacion all off the books, as well.

 

So they're losing $60 million, more or less.  That's assuming Aroldis Chapman doesn't opt out!!!!

Can Chapman get more than two years and $34.4 million?   MAYBE????  PROBABLY!!!   And he doesn't want to go to a West Coast team, so going FA now opens up possibilities for him if he wants to leave the Yankees now (for whatever reason). 

If so, the Yankees will down almost $80 million in payroll from 2019.

Edited by caulfield12
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Yankees are more than likely trading for at least one pitcher.  I've been saying this for months but unless something really drastic changes they aren't going to be in the market for Rendon or Cole.  They have a shit load of assets they actually NEED to trade since they did nothing at the deadline + injuries.

People here and Sox fans in general keep shitting on the Sox in regard to signing the huge names but nobody is in a better position than us.  I think we will be in it for Cole which almost nobody thinks we will be.  That is a franchise changing talent who will be still dominant during our contention years.  If Hahn and Kenny fuck this up again (Not necessarily about Cole, just in general) I'll be getting kicked out of SoxFest this year.

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3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Probably the reason why most Sox fans are just aiming for Zach Wheeler right out of the gate. Wheeler and Ozuna are the type of consolation prizes we are used to, despite them both still being instant upgrades for this team

Didn't Ozuna hit .216 after the allstar break, or something like that? I mean, anyone's an upgrade with how bad RF was for the Sox, but that doesn't mean we have to settle for crap.

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3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Probably the reason why most Sox fans are just aiming for Zach Wheeler right out of the gate. Wheeler and Ozuna are the type of consolation prizes we are used to, despite them both still being instant upgrades for this team. 

I am def on that boat. The last thing we need is to wait around trying to sign Cole, etc. while the Wheelers of FA sign elsewhere. Then not only do we not land a big name we miss out on players we absolutely need to take a leap forward and possibly contend if all goes right.

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4 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Yankees are more than likely trading for at least one pitcher.  I've been saying this for months but unless something really drastic changes they aren't going to be in the market for Rendon or Cole.  They have a shit load of assets they actually NEED to trade since they did nothing at the deadline + injuries.

People here and Sox fans in general keep shitting on the Sox in regard to signing the huge names but nobody is in a better position than us.  I think we will be in it for Cole which almost nobody thinks we will be.  That is a franchise changing talent who will be still dominant during our contention years.  If Hahn and Kenny fuck this up again (Not necessarily about Cole, just in general) I'll be getting kicked out of SoxFest this year.

Charlie Brown?

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Is Aroldis Chapman’s signing bonus actually getting paid over five years?  Or just allocated that way for payroll math but not in actuality?

There’s a non slight difference between 2/$30 beating his two remaining player options and 2/$34.4 million.

 

According to NY Post

https://nypost.com/2019/08/21/aroldis-chapmans-yankees-opt-out-decision-will-be-complicated/

“Chapman has two years at $30 million left. And while dubious about (Kenley) Jansen, I believe Chapman would top how much remains on his deal. Four years at $60 million feels possible, perhaps more. A club with money to spend and a desire to break from losing shackles, such as the White Sox, stands out.

But the way Kimbrel was treated in the marketplace has to provide pause for Chapman. And the fall of Wade Davis — the only reliever to make more on average per year than Chapman and Jansen — is going to further unnerve clubs thinking about spending big on even star relievers. Davis, in the second season of a three-year, $52 million pact, has become close to unusable by the Rockies.”

Edited by caulfield12
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6 hours ago, ron883 said:

The White Sox have slashed payroll the previous years so they could spend big on free agents when the time comes. They can still land big names players while having a middle of the pack payroll. No excuses. The typical "we tried" isn't going to fly this offseason. 

This is my view as well.  No excuses.

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At least we’re now in the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes, yay!   I guess...?

Reaction to that idea?

Unfortunately blew it by wasting money on Herrera.   Would definitely trade or cut lose Colome if I knew that money was going to Chapman instead of being banked.

Edited by caulfield12
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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

At least we’re now in the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes, yay!   I guess...?

Reaction to that idea?

Unfortunately blew it by wasting money on Herrera.   Would definitely trade or cut lose Colome if I knew that money was going to Chapman instead of being banked.

Hard pass on using the money that "will be spent" on Chapman imho. 

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2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

At least we’re now in the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes, yay!   I guess...?

Reaction to that idea?

Unfortunately blew it by wasting money on Herrera.   Would definitely trade or cut lose Colome if I knew that money was going to Chapman instead of being banked.

Because some writer from the NY Post randomly threw us out a potential option?  I’ll wager large sums of money we won’t go after Chapman.

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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

At least we’re now in the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes, yay!   I guess...?

Reaction to that idea?

Unfortunately blew it by wasting money on Herrera.   Would definitely trade or cut lose Colome if I knew that money was going to Chapman instead of being banked.

If a closer's main job is to prevent the other team from tying or going ahead thus earning a save Colome was slightly more effective than Chapman in 2019. I don't think I've seen one person mention Chapman for 2020 and for good reason. Can't pay a RP $15M+ when you have so many other holes that deserve $15M a year.

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43 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If a closer's main job is to prevent the other team from tying or going ahead thus earning a save Colome was slightly more effective than Chapman in 2019. I don't think I've seen one person mention Chapman for 2020 and for good reason. Can't pay a RP $15M+ when you have so many other holes that deserve $15M a year.

Well, some would say that a closer's main job is to be a good pitcher. Colome had a .491 OPS in save situations, but gave up a .773 OPS and a 3.95 ERA in non-save situations, so he really couldn't be counted on to say, pitch as a setup man or pitch the 10th inning in a tie game, or at least an elite team wouldn't be able to use him that way. Chapman put up a .529 OPS in save situations and a .555 OPS in non-save situations, so your entire statement that Colome was "slightly more effective" hangs on that stat. And as we've seen, teams these days will use closers in high-leverage situations that aren't save situations, or in the 10th inning of tie games, to try to preserve the chance to get a win, so the "Save situation" split only should get you so far. 

That said, I want Aroldis Chapman no where near any franchise I'm cheering for.

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