http://rotoprofessor.com/2020-projection-after-a-breakout-2019-is-a-regression-inevitable-for-yoan-moncada/

 

I had no idea his 2019 BABIP was the highest since 2000 of any player over the course of a full season, haven't seen anyone mention this

Quote

In fact the .406 mark was the highest of the decade, with Moncada being the only player to carry a .400+ mark for an entire season (since 2000 there have only been two other players to carry .400+ BABIP, but no one higher than Moncada’s from last season).

TL;DR

They expect a rather large regression for Moncada

2020 Projection:

.262 (144-550), 27 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 12 SB, .338 BABIP, .331 OBP, .489 SLG

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by joesaiditstrue

Trying not to be biased here but I think those projections are a bit low

2 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

Trying not to be biased here but I think those projections are a bit low

As far as projections go, I think they're right in line. I definitely don't expect him to hit 300 again, but I would think he does better than a .330 BABIP. 

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by mqr

I think his k rate will go down a bit. And his BABIP will too. Even if he dipped to the projection, which I doubt,  it is still a pretty good year.

If they do de juice the ball, some it will really change, some not so much. I think he is one it wouldn't matter very much.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the Sox actually field a feared line up. Pitchers have had a lot of breaks when facing them in recent years. We may see more mistakes.

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by Dick Allen

Moncada breaks these models. He pulverizes baseballs. He when he makes contact, the balls are absolutely murdered. He's top 5 in baseball for EV on ground balls and top 10 overall. 

I feel very confident he'll have more than 12 stolen bases at least.

didnt he make really hard contact which contributed to his BABIP? If I am correct, while its bound to lower, I doubt it dips as much as other players would.

2 minutes ago, Capital G said:

didnt he make really hard contact which contributed to his BABIP? If I am correct, while its bound to lower, I doubt it dips as much as other players would.

Yes. What he's doing is sustainable because he hits the ball very hard. He's just below Judge levels of pulverizing baseballs. 

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman

those projections really surprise me. I know his BABIP was insane but i figured it was mostly due to him murdering the baseball. I dont see why it should drop to the .330 level. 

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yes. What he's doing is sustainable because he hits the ball very hard. He's just below Judge levels of pulverizing baseballs. 

Not quite but pretty darn good.

http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo

40 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

http://rotoprofessor.com/2020-projection-after-a-breakout-2019-is-a-regression-inevitable-for-yoan-moncada/

 

I had no idea his 2019 BABIP was the highest since 2000 of any player over the course of a full season, haven't seen anyone mention this

TL;DR

They expect a rather large regression for Moncada

2020 Projection:

.262 (144-550), 27 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R, 12 SB, .338 BABIP, .331 OBP, .489 SLG

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/yoan-moncada-660162?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

Take a look at this. Moncada is elite across the board offensively. His xwOBA of .362 is not far from his actual .367 OBP. 

His exit velocity was in the top 3% of the mlb, when he hits the ball he crushes it. 

Is he due for a bit of regression? Perhaps, but the underlying analytics back up what he has done. Plus, I expect Moncada to improve as he heads into his prime years. 

I'm not worried about projection and regression with Yo, I am concerned about his health. IF he stays healthy, he will be between a 4 and 6 fWAR player most years. 

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada breaks these models. He pulverizes baseballs. He when he makes contact, the balls are absolutely murdered. He's top 5 in baseball for EV on ground balls and top 10 overall. 

His xBABIP was in the .380s. Projection systems struggle with guys like him and Aaron Judge who always have high BABIPs

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

those projections really surprise me. I know his BABIP was insane but i figured it was mostly due to him murdering the baseball. I dont see why it should drop to the .330 level. 

His elite speed should factor in here as well.

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

His xBABIP was in the .380s. Projection systems struggle with guys like him and Aaron Judge who always have high BABIPs

I think it’s premature to say Moncada always has high BABIPs

1 minute ago, mqr said:

I think it’s premature to say Moncada always has high BABIPs

Perhaps, but 1460 PAs is nothing to scoff at

5 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Perhaps, but 1460 PAs is nothing to scoff at

What I'm saying is he only has one year where he's carried a BABIP significantly higher than the one they're projecting. 231 of those ABs are at .325. 650 of them are at .344. Right now, last year is a major outlier.

 So just as a median projection, ~.340ish makes sense assuming Brooks isn't looking at exit velo when making their projections. 

Edited December 31, 20196 yr by mqr

1 minute ago, mqr said:

What I'm saying is he only has one year where he's carried a BABIP significantly higher than the one they're projecting. 231 of those ABs are at .325. 650 of them are at .344. 

 So just as a median projection, ~.340ish makes sense assuming Brooks isn't looking at exit velo when making their projections. 

By high BABIP, I just meant above the league average of ~.300. 2019 was certainly an extreme for Moncada and I don’t meant to suggest that he’ll routinely turn in .400 BABIPs.

 

I just think it’s meaningful that his xBABIP was .383. It was truly a Judge-like season (as you can see Judge was #1) in that regard so it wouldn’t shock me if he replicates it. 

And I know that link says it’s just expected batting average, but it has been tweaked to only use outcomes of balls in play, so it represents xBABIP for our purposes. The numbers there are not equal to the players’ xBAs.

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

By high BABIP, I just meant above the league average of ~.300. 2019 was certainly an extreme for Moncada and I don’t meant to suggest that he’ll routinely turn in .400 BABIPs.

  

I just think it’s meaningful that his xBABIP was .383. It was truly a Judge-like season (as you can see Judge was #1) in that regard so it wouldn’t shock me if he replicates it. 

Yeah, I just think people need to realize a .338 projection for BABIP is huuuuuuuge. Judge is looking at .319 right now for example. 

I'd think .280/.350/.550 is reasonable

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

Yeah, I just think people need to realize a .338 projection for BABIP is huuuuuuuge. Judge is looking at .319 right now for example. 

That’s fair, and maybe Judge is a better example than Moncada. Because if he outperforms his projected BABIP every single year, that says more to me about those who made the algorithm and their ability to adjust than Judge himself. At some point, Judge’s performance is no longer an anomaly and should be relatively expected, and I’m hoping Moncada also reaches that level in the next couple of years

3 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

I'd think .280/.350/.550 is reasonable

I wouldn't think it's particularly likely he raises hes BB% back to that level, because I don't think it'd be a good idea. And that be a pretty huge spike in ISO. What you're saying isn't unreasonable, but I don't think I'd bet on it. 

I could give a rodents ass about projections...... Let the games be played

36 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

His xBABIP was in the .380s. Projection systems struggle with guys like him and Aaron Judge who always have high BABIPs

Yup, great post.