I think .285/.330/.535 sounds about right.

I do think he'l  surpass 40 homers if he can stay on the field.  

There's always a chance for the sophomore slump.

If he's healthy? The sky is the limit. 40 HR's 100+ RBI's .950 OPS

1 hour ago, kitekrazy said:

There's always a chance for the sophomore slump.

I feel like you could only ever call a bad 2nd year a "sophomore slump" if a player had a giant rookie season. 

Eloy had certain prolonged stretches of being fantastic but he also spent a good deal of time hurt and being rusty after coming back from injury. Up until September when he stayed healthy. It felt like he would just start getting into his groove when an injury would happen. 

Promising rookie season but it wasn't a Bellinger or Pete Alonso type of "burst onto the scene". 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Richie said:

I feel like you could only ever call a bad 2nd year a "sophomore slump" if a player had a giant rookie season. 

Eloy had certain prolonged stretches of being fantastic but he also spent a good deal of time hurt and being rusty after coming back from injury. Up until September when he stayed healthy. It felt like he would just start getting into his groove when an injury would happen. 

Promising rookie season but it wasn't a Bellinger or Pete Alonso type of "burst onto the scene". 

 

 

One thing he needs to stop doing is guess hitting.  He's way too good of a hitter to be doing anything but sitting dead red and adjusting to off speed.  No more 2-2 and 3-2 fastballs taken or weakly fouled off or whiffed on because he's looking for off speed.

Now I think the injury had a role in that, as you noted.  It's hard to get hurt midseason when everybody is already well match fit.  Easier to come back in say May or June.

Edited January 31, 20206 yr by chitownsportsfan

He's going to put it on the board 47 times this year.

He will be the Bess.

My hope for Eloy is that he spent the winter working in LF to improve his D to the point where he less of an injury risk.  I don't expect gold glove, but he must stay healthy.  His bat is far too important to be missing chunks of time on the IL. 

.270 BA, 42 HRs, 120RBIs, slightly improved defense.

On 1/29/2020 at 4:48 PM, Jose Abreu said:

MLB posted a video today that got me thinking:

Eloy hit .267/.315/.513 (.828 OPS, 117 OPS+, 116 wRC+) in a rookie year that was often interrupted by injury, rusty periods following injury, and so on. When he was healthy and recovered from whatever ailment he had been dealing with (as in, ~2 weeks after returning from an IL stint), he was awesome. He seems to have bulked up over the winter, and his swing looks great at the end of that video.

Defense aside (I think he'll improve to the point where he's at least playable), what do you expect from him next year? Something like .270/.320/.500 may be a reasonable baseline, but if he stays healthy, I think he's gonna take a massive leap. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up .280/.340/.560 with 45 home runs (he was on a 41 home run per 162 pace last year), for example. Is that crazy?

I'm going to get really aggressive with this projections, but I see:

305/355/605

13 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

One thing he needs to stop doing is guess hitting.  He's way too good of a hitter to be doing anything but sitting dead red and adjusting to off speed.  No more 2-2 and 3-2 fastballs taken or weakly fouled off or whiffed on because he's looking for off speed.

Now I think the injury had a role in that, as you noted.  It's hard to get hurt midseason when everybody is already well match fit.  Easier to come back in say May or June.

I mean, he has been a guess hitter his whole life. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being a guess hitter; some of the best hitters in MLB history were guess hitters. Thomas was a classic guess hitter - which is why he was off-balance so often on those ass out, flip to right field knocks. Thomas was so good that he could adjust when he was off and keep his hands back, but he's one of the best hitters in MLB history and he was a guess hitter.

Abreu is another guess hitter, although his hands aren't as good as Thomas' so he can look even worse on things he's wrong on. 

There are only two types of hitters in MLB baseball; guess hitters and reaction hitters. There are successes and failures for each.

Edit: I also don't love the term "guess hitter." Theyir guesses are based on trends and tendencies that they study. They're technically "guessing" but they're educated guesses. Also, you can be a guess hitter who is better at identifying balls and strikes - like Thomas - so you don't see as many dreadful swings on balls way out of the zone like Jose.

Edited January 31, 20206 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

.280/.330/.520 with 40 hrs and 100 rbi

 

I feel like that is pretty realistic and would be great production for us 

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I mean, he has been a guess hitter his whole life. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being a guess hitter; some of the best hitters in MLB history were guess hitters. Thomas was a classic guess hitter - which is why he was off-balance so often on those ass out, flip to right field knocks. Thomas was so good that he could adjust when he was off and keep his hands back, but he's one of the best hitters in MLB history and he was a guess hitter.

Abreu is another guess hitter, although his hands aren't as good as Thomas' so he can look even worse on things he's wrong on. 

There are only two types of hitters in MLB baseball; guess hitters and reaction hitters. There are successes and failures for each.

Edit: I also don't love the term "guess hitter." Theyir guesses are based on trends and tendencies that they study. They're technically "guessing" but they're educated guesses. Also, you can be a guess hitter who is better at identifying balls and strikes - like Thomas - so you don't see as many dreadful swings on balls way out of the zone like Jose.

Technically everybody is a "guess hitter" as every hitter goes up there looking for "their pitch" which for most guys these days is a low fastball out over the plate.  What I mean with Eloy is that he needs to be guessing (looking really) fastball even when he's seeing a steady diet of sliders and junk.  Eloy will hit plenty of mistake hangers out of the park just off reactions to when he's looking fastball but his talent and power take over on a hanger.  

Too often last year he looked really bad with 2 strikes, even with a pitcher struggling to get a pitch over other than a fastball, because he was surprised he saw a 2 strike fastball.

Edited January 31, 20206 yr by chitownsportsfan

Mass Destruction

21 minutes ago, Brian said:

Mass Destruction

That picture of Frank rocks.  Need to bring back that batting glove look.

On January 30, 2020 at 10:43 AM, soxfan49 said:

Slightly improved defense, 42 homers, participates in the HR Derby but does not win

All that but no home run derby. Focus on the season!

22 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

.280/.330/.520 with 40 hrs and 100 rbi

 

I feel like that is pretty realistic and would be great production for us 

I agree….280 with 40 HRS pluu 100 rbi would be good goals along with improved defense.  He just might demolish those #'s.

38 minutes ago, Lonchair said:

All that but no home run derby. Focus on the season!

I'll be at the ASG festivities so I'm greedy

12 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

I'll be at the ASG festivities so I'm greedy

That's awesome for you, have a blast!  You're still going to see Eloy pinch hit in the sixth & jack one to take a 4-3 lead. Of course scoring Yoan & giving Lucas the W for the all star game.  

Has anyone else tried this koolaid?  It's so tasty. 

I would take his steamer projection (.279/.328/.519 with 33 homers) albeit I think he could hit a few more bombs.

20 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

I would take his steamer projection (.279/.328/.519 with 33 homers) albeit I think he could hit a few more bombs.

This projection would be an OK floor but I expect appreciably better assuming good health.

.850+ OPS. 40 Hrs.

I think he improves more than expected in the field thanks to his extra year, the work he put in, and having Robert in center. He still wont have + value but maybe around -4 runs.

 He'll have a much better supporting cast as long as RR doesn't make the worst hitter in the lineup bat 4th.

I know he has the tools and talent to improve, but I'm cautious.

 

270/300 - 38 HR