2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Fixed.....

Thank you...I have now voted.  

6 minutes ago, lane said:

Oh, sorry, Jack. You pulled another random number out of your butt, so I’ll totally panic now.

Seriously, where do you get off telling people they need to panic about this? 5-7 on the alarm scale? WTF is that?

Baseball related discussion...unless you guys want to continue in SLAM Covid-13 dedicated thread.

It’s an interesting topic, but hard to separate baseball from political considerations these days.

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by caulfield12

3 minutes ago, lane said:

Oh, sorry, Jack. You pulled another random number out of your butt, so I’ll totally panic now.

Seriously, where do you get off telling people they need to panic about this? 5-7 on the alarm scale? WTF is that?

In honor of you both, let's call it the Parkman-lane scale of panicness.  I am currently at a .25 and in no way canceling a trip that I have planned to San Antonio next week. (I don't really like crowds anyways).  My wife is more at a 5, so we will see, but I think that is more because she does not like to fly.  

Sports is all about revenue from TV. They would much prefer to play games in empty stadiums than to probably not be able to re-schedule many of them.

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings (13x flu mortality rate), 0.4% in 40-somethings (4x flu mortality rate), and 0.2% in people 10 to 39 (twice as dangerous as the common flu.)

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

Thanks for the stats- So let's just say it kills 15% of people over 80 and that number sticks.  And let's use the 1.3% of people over 50.  Should we do nothing and not try to contain it?  Kill millions of people over 80?  Roughly 2 billion of the 7 billion people in the world are over 50.  Using your mortality rate that is 26 million dead over the age of 50- of course not all of them will get this virus- but hopefully the point is made.  Your parents, your grandparents.  16% of the USA population is over 60 so about 56 million people.  So should we not do anything for those roughly 725k people?  Don't forget we have a normal flu season coming too.  And this virus is more easily spread because of the incubation period- people can walk around for up to a week with no symptoms.  Do you know why the Avian H5N1 (mortality rate of 60%) didn't wipe us out?  Because it caused people to get super sick super fast thus they can't spread it because they are home sick.  This is the opposite easy to spread but not as deadly.  

Leave world health issues to the experts like the WHO and the CDC.  It is a huge deal if they don't get this under control quickly.  BTW this isn't directed at you- just anyone that thinks this is a media conspiracy.  They stopped SARS by utilizing effective quarantines- had they not that would have killed millions.

Love the conspiracy theories. CV is potentially serious and crowds must be avoided. New Rochelle NY is on lockdown. Our preparations were lacking due to CDC cutbacks but we must now pull together on this. I would not be surprised if the games are closed to the public. 

6 hours ago, Richie said:

All this article did was reinforce to me that this is pneumonia + media sensationalism. 

None of this (no vaccine yet, etc.) changes the fact that the virus simply isn't that threatening. It kills nobody under 50 in the western world and most reported deaths are, in fact, 80+. 

Only 40% of Americans get a flu shot. Yet, I'm supposed to turn my life on its head because this less threatening virus doesn't (yet) have a vaccine? 

 

The Italian Health Care system is on the brink of collapse with 10,000 known cases. This isn't a fucking joke. 

We have less hospital beds per capita than Italy, btw. 

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by mqr

Well I'm 62 and already have COPD from smoking and a bad immune system so If I disappear the Corona Virus got me.

PS. I have to live my life. The only way, so far, it's affecting me is the yo-yoing of the stock market.

13 minutes ago, mqr said:

The Italian Health Care system is on the brink of collapse with 10,000 known cases. This isn't a fucking joke. 

We have less hospital beds per capita than Italy, btw. 

And they’re a nationalized healthcare system where all the costs to patients are basically subsidized.

We’ve gone away from more treatment-oriented to high-tech diagnostic, basically, get them in and out as quickly as possible, convert to outpatient status.   That won’t work at all with coronavirus...it’s going to be a high stress, staff and bed-intensive process requiring multiple weeks for a single patient.

27 minutes ago, mqr said:

The Italian Health Care system is on the brink of collapse with 10,000 known cases. This isn't a fucking joke. 

We have less hospital beds per capita than Italy, btw. 

Statistics show only 1500 or so need to go to the hospital. 

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Statistics show only 1500 or so need to go to the hospital. 

From ft.com

That’s just ICU.   Not necessarily counting severe/recovering but still requiring daily hospitalization before release.

By Tuesday, the first day of a nationwide clampdown on travel and social contact, the total number of infections across Italy had increased to 10,149 from 4,636 on Friday. While about one in 10 have since recovered — and at least 631 people have died — 877 patients are currently in intensive care. Lombardy, which has one of the best-resourced regional health systems in Italy, has been facing a surge in acute cases. As of Tuesday the number of people infected in Italy’s industrial heart had risen to 5,791, including 446 in intensive care. “Franky, I don’t know for how long the health system can cope, I don’t even want to think about how it could end,” Massimo Galli, head of the department for infectious diseases at the Sacco Hospital in Milan, told the Financial Times. “We are holding up, but other hospitals are much worse off than us and it is a fact that we will come increasingly under pressure.”

I want to get all of the science based information that I can from unbiased sources, to the extent that is possible. In the meantime, I am trying to tune out  anecdotal evidence (I had flu and survived, this is no big deal, etc. ) as well as the flurry of internet and cableTV  reports that are based on selective facts.  I  discount any attempt to address a potential pandemic with economic policies, like eliminating the payroll tax. or to take major steps like cancelling all sports events, at least not until we know more. 

Look, I have 6 tickets to the Opener and am planning on going with my son and friends.  The Opener has been a huge day for me going back probably before many posters here were born.  I do not want the Opener cancelled  or postponed unless the spread of this virus  and the medical consequences make it obvious that major league baseball and the White Sox  need to take that drastic step.

 

19 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Statistics show only 1500 or so need to go to the hospital. 

A. That's only ICU.

B. That number is only going to continue to rise at an exponential rate. Italy is going to get to the point where all the 15% of people who require breathing assistance aren't going to make it. That number, by the way, includes otherwise healthy and young people.

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by mqr

1 minute ago, tray said:

I want to get all of the science based information that I can from unbiased sources, to the extent that is possible. In the meantime, I am trying to tune out  anecdotal evidence (I had flu and survived, this is no big deal, etc. ) as well as the flurry of internet and cableTV  reports that are based on selective facts.  I  discount any attempt to address a potential pandemic with economic policies, like eliminating the payroll tax. or to take major steps like cancelling all sports events, at least not until we know more. 

Look, I have 6 tickets to the Opener and am planning on going with my son and friends.  The Opener has been a huge day for me going back probably before many posters here were born.  I do not want the Opener cancelled  or postponed unless the spread of this virus  and the medical consequences make it obvious that major league baseball and the White Sox  need to take that drastic step.

 

Seattle and Santa Clara, CA....already took those decisions away from the individual teams and MLB by capping the size of any event.  Boston, LA, NYC and the DC area (enhanced risk to continuity of power) could easily be next the way things are trending.  In NYC, one lawyer, age 50, spread it to roughly 50 members of his synagogue.

At any rate, let’s wait and see what happens with the First Four in Dayton early next week.

Master’s must be nervous as well.   Talking about Olympics being delayed or moved back 1-2 years, comments that were quickly disavowed in Japan, that has political reasons to undertest there as well to suppress numbers and scare intl athletic community.

America's propensity towards individualism and selfishness is on full display with this outbreak.

When Japan told people to stay home, they listened. South Korea? Same thing. American's response is "who are you to tell me what to do?"

You staying home is not about protecting you; the majority of us are not at risk. We are being asked to stay home to protect societies most vulnerable. Sometimes you have to make sacrifices personally for the greater good of all. This is one of those times. 

As MQR has already laid out, this is a resource issue. There are only 924,000 hospital beds in the USA. Of those 924,000, 66% of them are taken up year round for general issues like cancer and things.  That leaves a little over 300,000 beds for other unforseen issues. 

Coronavirus has a hospitalization rate of about 10-15%; let's say 10% and error on the low side. The projection is for between 40-70% of the world population to contract he virus over the next year; lets, again, estimate on the low side and say 30% of American's get it this year. That's over 100,000,000 people; if 10% of those people need to be hospitalized, we're talking about 10,000,000+ people. We don't have the infrastructure, or the health care resources, to accommodate that. Which means? Hospitals will be forced to make tough decisions that costs people their lives (This is ALREADY happening in Italy FYI). By quarantining, you are not trying to "stop" the virus. You are trying to delay the spread of the virus in a way that allows doctors to keep up with the work load; which allows everyone an equal shot at survival if they're vulnerable. That's the point of bans on big public spaces, and while the rest of the world says "do whatever is best, we need to contain this," American's are fluttering about calling it the "flu" and downplaying the risk because it doesn't impose a risk to them personally. 

Furthermore, the USA has a healthcare system issue in general; many people can't even afford to go to the doctor, and even more can't afford to miss work for 2 weeks in the name of staying safe and healthy. This will lead people into the work place with illnesses, expediting the spread. There is no vaccine for this; the vulnerable have no way of protecting themselves.

Instead of thinking about you and the personal problems/sacrifices you have to make - minor inconveniences in the grand scheme of things - think about the most vulnerable who have their lives at risk here. If the system is flooded, they can't receive proper treatment; if they can't receive proper treatment, they could die. 

This is not some small issue just because it doesn't effect you personally. This is a dangerous illness with no vaccine or cure. Show some compassion.

I'll be sad when MLB plays games in empty stadiums - it will - but at the same time I understand it, and it's a sacrifice I'm absolutely willing to make for the better good of all. 

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

I hope the 'I'll be fine' people stop for a second and think about their family and friends who are nurses, doctors and other health care pros that are going to be on the front lines of this thing and putting themselves in danger for weeks, if not months. 

And definitely don't get in a car accident after the situation blows up. 

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by mqr

12 hours ago, lane said:

There’s a chance that my office could shut down indefinitely because of this idiotic thing. With pay, of course. If it does, I’m going to rent out a mansion on Lake Como, for cheap. Spoiler alert, everybody: We are all going to die. Sometimes you get those horror movies where most of the people die but those two people you probably didn’t expect actually live. That’s not this one. In this one, everybody dies!

So live your lives. Hang out with your friends, with your families, enjoy the small things and the big things, and don’t freak out because the same imbeciles who think Mike Bloomberg can give a million dollars to every American think some virus is the end of the world.

As someone who has relatives who have respiratory issues your comment angers me. Have fun at your mansion while we watch our loved ones die. 

Here is the issue and unfortunately it is the state of the world and it is scary as hell that this is the world we live in.

I really do not know who to trust anymore.  Is it the media against Trump looking to blow it out of proportion?   Is it the media for trump looking to underestimate it so that there is no fiscal crisis or threat to his reelection? 

I really do not know who to follow any longer and what to believe as there is no unbiased media and there is no solid reporting at your finger tips.

 

 

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by Harry Chappas

1 minute ago, Harry Chappas said:

Here is the issue and unfortunately it is the state of the world and it is scary as hell that this is world we live in.

I really do not know who to trust anymore.  Is it the media against Trump looking to blow it out of proportion?   Is it the media for trump looking to underestimate it so that there is no fiscal crisis or threat to his reelection? 

I really do not know who to follow any longer and what to believe as there is no unbiased media and there is no solid reporting at your finger tips.

 

 

You dont need the media to make up yoir mind for you. There are plenty of sources available to you, including those from reputable health services. I suggest you do your own research and look for those who know what they are talking about.

1 minute ago, Harry Chappas said:

Here is the issue and unfortunately it is the state of the world and it is scary as hell that this is the world we live in.

I really do not know who to trust anymore.  Is it the media against Trump looking to blow it out of proportion?   Is it the media for trump looking to underestimate it so that there is no fiscal crisis or threat to his reelection? 

 I really do not know who to follow any longer and what to believe as there is no unbiased media and there is no solid reporting at your finger tips.

 

 

Listen to the epidemiologists ffs

2 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Here is the issue and unfortunately it is the state of the world and it is scary as hell that this is the world we live in.

I really do not know who to trust anymore.  Is it the media against Trump looking to blow it out of proportion?   Is it the media for trump looking to underestimate it so that there is no fiscal crisis or threat to his reelection? 

I really do not know who to follow any longer and what to believe as there is no unbiased media and there is no solid reporting at your finger tips.

 

 

Here's an easy answer for you Harry:

Trust the Medical Professionals and Scientists. That's what they're here for. This isn't about politics or Trump - this is a global problem.

When in doubt, trust the highly educated professionals. 

If you aren't sure who to trust, perhaps consider the World Health Organization

 

6 minutes ago, mqr said:

Listen to the epidemiologists ffs

The issue is a vast majority of the population is not capable of doing so and then there is another portion that just does not want to believe it because it makes their life more tumultuous.

This entire Corona virus mass hysteria is a joke and insane... 

21 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Here is the issue and unfortunately it is the state of the world and it is scary as hell that this is the world we live in.

I really do not know who to trust anymore.  Is it the media against Trump looking to blow it out of proportion?   Is it the media for trump looking to underestimate it so that there is no fiscal crisis or threat to his reelection? 

I really do not know who to follow any longer and what to believe as there is no unbiased media and there is no solid reporting at your finger tips.

 

 

Listen to doctors OR the actual stats. It's like the 20th most deadly disease.... and we never mention the other 19. It's mass hysteria.