Alright guys, today the Sox look to win the rubber match and take the series!

On the mound for the Twins is a guy that Sox players have little track record against, but one who poses a dangerous threat.  As the Statcast data below shows, Maeda is a highly effective pitcher without gaudy velocity numbers, with his success driven by frequently changing speeds and getting hitters to chase sliders (against RHs) and changeups (against LHs) outside the bottom part of the zone.  The slider in particular is deadly (Fangraphs ranked it 3rd overall in pitch value last year) and Maeda deploys it against righties over 50% of the time.  Guys like Eloy, Abreu, & Robert will likely be pummeled by sliders down & away and will need to lay off the ones outside of the zone if they want any chance to be successful.

On the mound for us is a guy coming off a very disappointing 2019 season and with an incredibly poor track record against the Twins.  His career OPS against current Twins hitters is a whopping .970 and that’s over 110 ABs.  I said this a ton last year, but he desperately needs to find a way to get his secondary pitches working.  Obviously his fastball velocity is great, but it’s lack of consistent spin means he can’t use it 60% of the time.  If he’s unable to command his slider today and goes too fastball heavy he will get destroyed by the likes of Cruz, Donaldson, & Garver.  Regardless of pitch mix, having Grandal could be a game changer for Lopez as he was the most impacted starter in all of baseball last year by poor pitch framing.

I know this may not be the most optimistic way to start a game-thread, but clearly this is not an ideal matchup for us on paper and I want to appease the baseball gods by being respectful of that fact.  That being said, who gives a fuck because this is baseball and anything can happen on any given day, especially when you have a Luis Robert!

Let’s fucking go!!

CWS you do a nice job of making the threads. Love it!

 

Yeah, Maeda will likely be a hard one. Lots of people see him beasting on the Twins this year.

I'm looking forward to this as it will be the first game I get to sit down and watch. Let's GO!

We may finally see Gio Gonzalez actually pitch for the Sox today.

I predict that yesterday was the start of EE going on a tear for a bit.  I also wonder if Edwin has helped with how locked in Eloy looks early in the season.

Win this series and head to Cleveland!!

Very low confidence in Lopez, was surprised they slotted him to make this series.

would love to be proven wrong!

A win today would be huge in setting the tone for this season.  Time to show Minnesota & Cleveland that they are in for a tough race.

Yeah i don't like this match-up at all. I would have preferred Cease. 

42 minutes ago, poppysox said:

A win today would be huge in setting the tone for this season.  Time to show Minnesota & Cleveland that they are in for a tough race.

And setting the tone for Lopez too. Talk about a guy needing a shot of confidence! To me it's a head scratcher that Coop and RR have Lopez slotted 3rd. I would've had Lopez 5th and Cease 3rd. To me Dunning pitched as good as Lopez in ST pt.2. Also, the Sox have a little familiarity with Meada over the last 2 years sharing the same spring training facilities with the Dodgers.  On a side note,  I never would have bet that the first homer of the season from our catchers would've come from McCann. This lineup is so deep!

Edited July 26, 20205 yr by smellysox

5 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Yeah i don't like this match-up at all. I would have preferred Cease. 

Totally agree. Cease looked nasty in camp.

Got a bad feeling about this one.

I'm not sure who saw Maeda "beasting" with the Twins.  His career ERA outside of Dodger stadium is 4.50 (1.25 higher than at home).  And his career OPS-against on the road was .715...and that includes the nearly 10% hitters that he faced were pitchers.  He's 32 so he's not getting better. There's a reason Twins got him from the Dodgers  for nothing with the Dodgers paying almost all his salary.  That said...Lopez against this Twins team is scary.  He has the stuff to shut them down but 8 runs seems more likely.  I think I lost most of my belief in Lopez last year.  Even my normal optimistic player evaluation has a hard time thinking Lopez isn't just a slightly better Carson Fulmer...great ability but can't control it.    

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not sure who saw Maeda "beasting" with the Twins.  His career ERA outside of Dodger stadium is 4.50 (1.25 higher than at home).  And his career OPS-against on the road was .715...and that includes the nearly 10% hitters that he faced were pitchers.  He's 32 so he's not getting better. There's a reason Twins got him from the Dodgers  for nothing with the Dodgers paying almost all his salary.  That said...Lopez against this Twins team is scary.  He has the stuff to shut them down but 8 runs seems more likely.  I think I lost most of my belief in Lopez last year.  Even my normal optimistic player evaluation has a hard time thinking Lopez isn't just a slightly better Carson Fulmer...great ability but can't control it.    

Apparently he worked in the Lab with Gio this offseason on his spin rate and stuff like that.  Let's see if it helped.

25 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Yeah i don't like this match-up at all. I would have preferred Cease. 

Cease is the better pitcher but if you look at it from trying to win both of the first series it makes sense. The twins get the the Sox number 1,2,5 starters and Cleveland gets the 3,4,1 starters. it evens it out instead of front loading the twins series.  

6 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not sure who saw Maeda "beasting" with the Twins.  His career ERA outside of Dodger stadium is 4.50 (1.25 higher than at home).  And his career OPS-against on the road was .715...and that includes the nearly 10% hitters that he faced were pitchers.  He's 32 so he's not getting better. There's a reason Twins got him from the Dodgers  for nothing with the Dodgers paying almost all his salary.  That said...Lopez against this Twins team is scary.  He has the stuff to shut them down but 8 runs seems more likely.  I think I lost most of my belief in Lopez last year.  Even my normal optimistic player evaluation has a hard time thinking Lopez isn't just a slightly better Carson Fulmer...great ability but can't control it.    

I’m not sure I think Maeda is going to “beast” this year with the Twins, but I really don’t like how his arsenal plays against our lineup.

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Apparently he worked in the Lab with Gio this offseason on his spin rate and stuff like that.  Let's see if it helped.

I love that.  He's only 26 and often with young guys it is how they look when they are good.  He had ten starts last year where he allowed one run or less.  7 starts where he had 8 strikeouts or more.  He was really good when he was good.  Problem is he had ten starts where he pitched 44 innings and gave up 70 runs (14 ERA).  Can't give up on a guy who pitched a complete game one hitter with 11 strikeouts in September against a Cleveland team in the playoff hunt. Please Lopez.  Please

Anyone know why Moncada is out of the lineup? 

1 minute ago, Capital G said:

Anyone know why Moncada is out of the lineup? 

Think that was always the plan with him coming back from the Rona so soon.

What a horrible lineup, fire Renteria!

Maeda 84 pitches his last summer camp start, should be able to go around 90-95.

Would take a lot of cojones to bet the White Sox here.

Lineup is strait trash. Got a team full of mashers yet Ricky somehow always finds a way to inject a black hole

hey I"m ready to b**** about the lineup too so if you b**** about it can you fucking post it?

 

Edited July 26, 20205 yr by chitownsportsfan

Honestly with Reylo pitching I don't mind Engel in RF.  Gonna need all the help he can get.

Edited July 26, 20205 yr by chitownsportsfan

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

hey I"m ready to b**** about the lineup too so if you b**** about it can you fucking post it?

 

Shades of the Ozzie Guillen Sunday line-ups...

“Thoughts and prayers for Tom Thibodeau who was named coach of the New York Knicks on Saturday. Good luck Tom, you’re going to need it.

Staying in Chicago. Move from Wrigley to the Southside where the White Sox play host to the Twins. Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda throws against Chicago’s Reynaldo Lopez in the rubber game of a three-game set. A Dodger last year, Maeda finished 10-8 for one of the best teams in MLB and will be a key player in determining the Twins’ fate in this shortened season. Lopez finished 10-15 for a mediocre at best White Sox team. Dependable starter always done in by one or two bad innings. Counting on that today. Play 20 units on the Twinkies.“

Nypost.com

 

Picked Keuchel game right, but very wrong going with Yu Darvish...

Edited July 26, 20205 yr by caulfield12

13 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Think that was always the plan with him coming back from the Rona so soon.

I mean based on the last two days id say hes recovered

So I was looking at it.  Are we too hard on Lopez?  He had 33 starts last year and 10 were terrible...as I mentioned earlier a 14 ERA in those starts.  In his other 23 starts he had a 3.3 ERA and 3 to 1 walks to strikeouts.  So 2/3 of the time he was a very good pitcher and 1/3 of the time he was the worst pitcher in the history of baseball.  If he is the good Lopez he is way better than Maeda ever was.  

Maeda dominates righties. Playing Engel today seems like a bad move.