Having Biden win in the coming days after everything on TV screamed Trump is a god damn nightmare even if I ultimately want Biden

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Right now, looks like you gain AZ (Kelly), maybe Iowa (Greenfield over Ernst), Bullock/Daines and Collins/Gideon races just have no idea how to call them.   Hickenlooper over Gardner the only flip for sure and in the books so far.

Cunningham's scandal might be the tipping point there in NC, Cooper wins governorship but perhaps Trump the state overall by a few points.

Very easily ends up 50/50 tie in the Senate the way things are looking right now.

Ernst isn't going to lose either. You got your whole state wrong.  

For what it's worth, the PA mail-in/absentee ballots (first or initial results announcement) was supposed to be dumped altogether at 11 p.m. EST according to their election officials.

Just now, caulfield12 said:

For what it's worth, the PA mail-in/absentee ballots (first or initial results announcement) was supposed to be dumped altogether at 11 p.m. EST according to their election officials.

If that is true youre probably looking at about +200k for Biden. If its lower than that hes done. If its above 300-400k hes looking good.

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

Ernst isn't going to lose either. You got your whole state wrong.  

Yes, I know the late-breaking polls were all going in the direction of Trump and Ernst.

Maybe viewing it through rose-colored glasses, but Iowa always seems to surprise in both caucuses and the Presidential races.  We shall see if that trend continues, with MN/WI flipping as well as bordering states.

 

And I totally forgot to add in Hawaii's 4.

So there's still at least 6 other possible votes out there for Biden, and Maine's weird situation (4 total, 1 likely to Biden, at least).

Just now, Tony said:

I'm putting on a movie. It seems like I've been following the coverage for 12 hours, can't do it anymore. 

I agree. The votes are moving too slowly to make any definitive statements on the race. It’s too bad Biden isn’t winning convincingly but our country is just so divided. Long term tonight might not be the best for the GOP.

1 minute ago, Tony said:

I'm putting on a movie. It seems like I've been following the coverage for 12 hours, can't do it anymore. 

Just like everyone is "burned out" from Covid-19...the same thing is happening here with the election, really need a shocking announcement that changes the direction of the race yet again.  Kind of feel like a malaise is setting in.   It certainly is setting up to be an election that drags into the next 2-3 days at a bare minimum.

Iowa looks like urban areas are in, rural are not just from the quick peak at the map.

We like how Trump treats people we don't like. 

35 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Biden down to +220. At least now we're holding a ++ position @Chicago White Sox

 

Let's goooo

Based on my math (which could be wrong at this point), Philadelphia alone could add 600k votes for Biden.  Detroit will eventually flip towards Biden.  Wisconsin is a cone flip at this point.  If Biden can hold in Arizona, I like our chances.

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Based on my math (which could be wrong at this point), Philadelphia alone could add 600k votes for Biden.  Detroit will eventually flip towards Biden.  Wisconsin is a cone flip at this point.  If Biden can hold in Arizona, I like our chances.

I like getting 2-1, but I'm weary of being excited. Think we're getting a 2-1 on a 58/42 but we're still holding the 42.

205 to 112  Biden

 

Nevada 6  (Biden)

Hawaii 4 (Biden)

Maine 4/split  (1 to Biden?)

Arizona 11

Wisconsin 10

Michigan 16

Pennsylvania 20

Minnesota 10

Iowa 6

Nebraska  (1?)

 

NV/Hawaii/Minnesota gets you to 225

65 more votes out there

 

I'm going to bed. Pessimistic. 

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I like getting 2-1, but I'm weary of being excited. Think we're getting a 2-1 on a 58/42 but we're still holding the 42.

Bovada sitting -320 on Trump, +230 on Biden.

8 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I agree. The votes are moving too slowly to make any definitive statements on the race. It’s too bad Biden isn’t winning convincingly but our country is just so divided. Long term tonight might not be the best for the GOP.

Beast - Curious why you think this won't be the best for GOP LT?  

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Beast - Curious why you think this won't be the best for GOP LT?  

I could be completely wrong and speculative, but the margins and turnout appear to be getting more competitive in states like Texas and Georgia. Add in a possible Trump win and they could be in the wilderness in 2024. 

Philly has apparently gotten 350k mail in ballots, and have OPENED 76k of them.

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Bovada sitting -320 on Trump, +230 on Biden.

I'm holding +274 so I like my position a lot; think this is a -150/+130 (or a little higher) race if anything at this point.

Edited November 4, 20205 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

A MILLION mail in ballots in PA haven't been counted.

Saying a million PA mail in ballots havent been counted across the state.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Philly has apparently gotten 350k mail in ballots, and have OPENED 76k of them.

More than 1M mail in ballots not reported yet

Just now, Soxbadger said:

Saying a million PA mail in ballots havent been counted across the state.

Pennsylvania definitely still in play

9 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Beast - Curious why you think this won't be the best for GOP LT?  

From a financial/economic standpoint, Covid-19, Obamacare, etc.   Trump will have no solutions or plans, limited financial flexibility in terms of a divided Congress and $30+ trillion in debt and we'll see if the Senate is 49-51/50-50/51-49. 

Manchin could likely give Trump another vote.

One could argue that four more years of Trump would be like the last 4 years of GW Bush.

That it would tarnish the GOP brand by the end of it for another generation of voters.

 

That said, it only took eight years, and really even just four (if you count Katrina and 2006 as the death of Bush GOPism) before the Tea Party resurgence.

 

Edited November 4, 20205 yr by caulfield12

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Philly has apparently gotten 350k mail in ballots, and have OPENED 76k of them.

Are they considered received and on time? Could they get thrown out? That’s my concern.