Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

I think Dunning's window is a #3-#5, with a high likelihood of being a #4.  I think the high point on him in terms of overall production is thinking about what Jon Garland did here, even though they are different pitchers.  I am not sure Dunning could pull off what Garland did in 2005 as a career year but it probably wouldn't surprise many people if he did.  

I think Dunning is normally the kind of guy we would definitely hold onto **if** we didn't have so much top-end ceiling SP at the high MiLB or MLB level already.  We literally need to make room for these guys, so someone has to be traded.

I think Dunning could surprise a la Jose Quintana. Nobody believed Q was a #2 until he was. 

I like the way dunning works the ball up and down and in and out. Not many guys can do that. I wouldn’t trade him. Just pick up the majority of wheelers K and that’s it. They should t be rewarded for being idiots

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I think Dunning could surprise a la Jose Quintana. Nobody believed Q was a #2 until he was. 

This. The guy showed decent stuff with dynamite control, until he got fatigued (understandably so). This guy can easily be a #3 pitcher for years to come. 

Just now, Danny Dravot said:

You’re missing my point. I don’t care about Harper. I don’t see replacing Keuchel with Wheeler, which is what you’re doing, as an improvement.

OK then we agree to disagree.  That said, I can see why you would like the lesser-expensive pitch-to-contact groundball guy over Wheeler.  Keuchel's ceiling is lower but his deal is also probably less likely to go bad on us.

Personally I'd rather have Harper over Wheeler anyway.  Going from a Springer pursuit to a trade for Harper is actually a better idea IMO.

2 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

This. The guy showed decent stuff with dynamite control, until he got fatigued (understandably so). This guy can easily be a #3 pitcher for years to come. 

The other thing is that I don't think Dunning was all the way back from TJS yet. I think that his stuff could get even better next year. I think this is fairly obvious as he was only good for 4-5 innings at best. 

Edited December 6, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think Dunning could surprise a la Jose Quintana. Nobody believed Q was a #2 until he was. 

I remember arguing for him over Hector Santiago a lot.  I always liked Q a lot.  But I think he's just a case of being a lefty with deception and overachieving a bit.

Personally I really believe in #1's, #3's, and #5's, and you have 1) raw stuff, 2) command; 3) health; 4) poise/pitchability/aptitude/etc. and Q is a guy who never had the stuff of a #1 so he IMO could never really become more than a #3 to me.  The other stuff was all there but I wouldn't call him a #2.  I think a true ace has all of those things and really everybody else who doesn't have all of those things can't be a #1, just a #3.

That's just the way I think about it.  A #2 is a guy who doesn't have enough to be a #1, and maybe an overachieving #3.  

Maybe it doesn't make a lot of sense that way but I like to think of a pitcher being one of the 3 types: (1) true ace; (2) mid-rotation starter; (3) back-end starter, and that's it, which is why I just think of 1s, 3s, and 5s.

Q was really a #3/mid-rotation starter "true talent" to me and has always has been, and maybe he overachieves sometimes and underachieves at other times.  A Q who has regressed to me is more of a "true talent" #5/back end starter.  I see Dunning similarly.  No real out-pitch on either guy.

10 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

You’re missing my point. I don’t care about Harper. I don’t see replacing Keuchel with Wheeler, which is what you’re doing, as an improvement.

Its beyond stupid. Giving up any core pieces or top prospects for wheeler is incredibly dumb when they could just sign bauer

8 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I remember arguing for him over Hector Santiago a lot.  I always liked Q a lot.  But I think he's just a case of being a lefty with deception and overachieving a bit.

Personally I really believe in #1's, #3's, and #5's, and you have 1) raw stuff, 2) command; 3) health; 4) poise/pitchability/aptitude/etc. and Q is a guy who never had the stuff of a #1 so he IMO could never really become more than a #3 to me.  The other stuff was all there but I wouldn't call him a #2.  I think a true ace has all of those things and really everybody else who doesn't have all of those things can't be a #1, just a #3.

That's just the way I think about it.  A #2 is a guy who doesn't have enough to be a #1, and maybe an overachieving #3.  

Maybe it doesn't make a lot of sense that way but I like to think of a pitcher being one of the 3 types: (1) true ace; (2) mid-rotation starter; (3) back-end starter, and that's it, which is why I just think of 1s, 3s, and 5s.

Q was really a #3/mid-rotation starter "true talent" to me and has always has been, and maybe he overachieves sometimes and underachieves at other times.  A Q who has regressed to me is more of a "true talent" #5/back end starter.  I see Dunning similarly.  No real out-pitch on either guy.

Dunning's stuff is  better than Q's. He has 2 better breaking balls than Q did. 

Dunning was throwing a nasty slider and curveball at times this year. 

Q was a 2 pitch pitcher for most of his career and it worked for him. 

I don't disagree with your philosophy, but there are two types of #2s. Underachieving #1s (Darvish, Bauer) and overachieving #3s(Quintana with the Sox, Keuchel) 

As much as I like Giolito he's still a #2 in the underachieving  #1 category. 

 

Edited December 6, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That might be the worst trade in baseball history. 

Let me re-phrase I wouldn’t mind giving up any 1 or 2 of those guys for BOTH Harper and Wheeler, I’m not saying include all of them in one package.

You may not have liked his stuff but from '13 to '16, Quintana was a top 20 starter in the game. If he wasn't at least a decent number two, there weren't very many decent number twos. Ranked 4th, 6th and 8th in WAR during those years. He's currently 23rd in active career ERA and 18th in FIP, and that includes his mediocre performance with the Cubs

36 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

People trying to disparage my Keuchel + Grandal for Wheeler + Harper deal, why don't you honestly try to rank these 4 players 1-4 in terms of which players are the best players first.

My list:

1) Harper

2) Wheeler

3) Keuchel

4) Grandal 

There are other variations but if you're honest we're getting the 2 best players in the deal. 

Also we could just sign McCann! instead of Realmuto, if it came to that.  And if no McCann, with the kind of lineup we would be putting out 1-7, we could afford to sign a defensive-first C to hit 8th with Madrigal 9th and we would be just fine offensively.

It has nothing to do with "rankings" and everything to do with the Phillies losing $140 million last year. The reason the move these guys is to cut cash. They don't want to take on 40 million dollars to free up 50 million.  They'd much rather dump $25 million in one pop. It isn't just about the White Sox.

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That might be the worst trade in baseball history. 

While I wouldn't trade the big chips for them, hypothetical scenario:

If the Phillies offered the Sox Harper and Wheeler, but the Sox had to take their entire contracts. In return the Sox didn't have to give up their big chips — Kopech, Vaughn, Crochet, Madrigal, Kelley. Would you do it?

I want absolutely nothing to do with a guy who didn't want to play here so much so that he took less to be in Philly.

26 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think Dunning could surprise a la Jose Quintana. Nobody believed Q was a #2 until he was. 

I don't think it would be much of a surprise.  The dude can pitch.  

16 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Its beyond stupid. Giving up any core pieces or top prospects for wheeler is incredibly dumb when they could just sign bauer

They could, except Bauer will get more. Not exactly apples to apples

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

I can’t see teams trading for Wheeler with that contract unless the asking price is very low. 

I think it depends If the Team ist going to eat the whole contract. If a Team eats the whole contract it won't be much of a return (maybe a 45 and a 40) but if the Phillies add 15 mil it would require a good package.

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I don't think it would be much of a surprise.  The dude can pitch.  

That's the point. 

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

While I wouldn't trade the big chips for them, hypothetical scenario:

If the Phillies offered the Sox Harper and Wheeler, but the Sox had to take their entire contracts. In return the Sox didn't have to give up their big chips — Kopech, Vaughn, Crochet, Madrigal, Kelley. Would you do it?

No.

Just now, soxfan49 said:

They could, except Bauer will get more. Not exactly apples to apples

He shouldn't though.

3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I don't think it would be much of a surprise.  The dude can pitch.  

People throw him around in trade proposals more often than any other prospects. I think many here aren't sold on his upside, and would be surprised if he became a #2. My hope is for the Sox to get another pitcher without giving up Kopech, Cease, or Dunning, and letting those 3 duke it out for the 4-5 spots. 

Edited December 6, 20205 yr by Yearnin' for Yermin

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

No.

I wouldn't take on Harpers entire deal but I would take on all but 50M of it or so, over the last 4 seasons of the deal. I feel fairly confident of Harper being a good player into his mid 30s. 

2 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

People throw him around in trade proposals more often than any other prospects. I think many here aren't sold on his upside, and would be surprised if he became a #2. My hope is for the Sox to get another pitcher without giving up Kopech, Cease, or Dunning, and letting those 3 duke it out for the 4-5 spots. 

Me too. 

Also, the Cubs showed how important the 2nd wave is. They need to produce some surprising guys for trades and hold on to their high picks. 

Edited December 6, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

48 minutes ago, fathom said:

But Wheeler is getting paid as a number one guy while the other trade targets are getting paid like a number 4 or 5 guy

Except Darvish

Guy told your organization 12 months ago that you aren't good enough for me and people think sox would trade for him. 

1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

People throw him around in trade proposals more often than any other prospects. I think many here aren't sold on his upside, and would be surprised if he became a #2. My hope is for the Sox to get another pitcher without giving up Kopech, Cease, or Dunning, and letting those 3 duke it out for the 4-5 spots. 

I'd move Dunning in the right deal but I would try to trade Kopech or Cease first. I'd like to hang on to the guy that doesn't need to make any adjustments.