3 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Does this account for the shortened season?

Moncada was worth 1.6 fWAR last year but prorated that would have been 4.2 war  for a full season.

Using that moncada averaged 4 war the last 3 seasons.

According to Baseball Reference, Moncada's 2020 line was BA .225; OPS 705; OPS+ 94; WAR 0.7. His last 3 seasons were heavily influenced by a strong 2019 of 4+. 

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Please enlighten me on how you would arrive at an appropriate WAR for Moncada for purposes of calculating SV. 

Use player's FV grades if they're a prospect/young player, for older players use player recent 3 year trend, identify similar comps, and project their production for the next 3-5 years. There are many models that do this already it's nothing new.

Also RE: recency bias. How do you explain Vlad Jr's AFV on BTV coming off 0.4 and 0.3 seasons if they're truly recency biased? It's clear that they do plug in some numbers based on prospect grades, but some of it are just off.

Just now, Flash said:

According to Baseball Reference, Moncada's 2020 line was BA .225; OPS 705; OPS+ 94; WAR 0.7. His last 3 seasons were heavily influenced by a strong 2019 of 4+. 

I find it interesting you insist on using his bWAR when BTV points to FG. 1.6 fWAR x2.7 multiplier = 4.3 fWAR in 2020.

1 minute ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Use player's FV grades if they're a prospect/young player, for older players use player recent 3 year trend, identify similar comps, and project their production for the next 3-5 years. There are many models that do this already it's nothing new.

Also RE: recency bias. How do you explain Vlad Jr's AFV on BTV coming off 0.4 and 0.3 seasons if they're truly recency biased? It's clear that they do plug in some numbers based on prospect grades, but some of it are just off.

So by that explanation, what should Moncada's WAR be?

Just now, Flash said:

So by that explanation, what should Moncada's WAR be?

Take whatever value a 65-70 FV prospect produces. It would be a lot higher than whatever BTV is projecting. Or even if you just use Steamer, it's 3.3 WAR for 2021, conservatively project the same number for next 4 years (pretend there won't be any progression for a player entering his prime) multiple by $9M/WAR, it would be a lot higher than what his AFV is on BTV.

Guys...I have no vested interest in anyones website or model. I crawl around FG as much as the next guy. I really couldn't care less about how Moncada's SV was determined. I didn't bring it up. It was brought up as an anomaly to BTVs SV forecast ostensibly to support why it is unreliable as a proxy for valuing WS players as trade pieces for Castillo and/or others. Thats fine. i'm always up for an intellectual arguement on the efficacy of certain data and how it can/should be interpretted but can do without the commentary on the value of my perspective. I often take controversial and contrarian positions across a variety of interests but Moncada's SV calculation approach is not worth the calories we've already burned. Agree to disagree.   

1 hour ago, Flash said:

According to Baseball Reference, Moncada's 2020 line was BA .225; OPS 705; OPS+ 94; WAR 0.7. His last 3 seasons were heavily influenced by a strong 2019 of 4+. 

Even using that calculation average war still was 2.7 over the last 3 years.

 

1.3+4.8+(0.7*2.7)=8.2

8.2/3=2.7

1 hour ago, Flash said:

Guys...I have no vested interest in anyones website or model. I crawl around FG as much as the next guy. I really couldn't care less about how Moncada's SV was determined. I didn't bring it up. It was brought up as an anomaly to BTVs SV forecast ostensibly to support why it is unreliable as a proxy for valuing WS players as trade pieces for Castillo and/or others. Thats fine. i'm always up for an intellectual arguement on the efficacy of certain data and how it can/should be interpretted but can do without the commentary on the value of my perspective. I often take controversial and contrarian positions across a variety of interests but Moncada's SV calculation approach is not worth the calories we've already burned. Agree to disagree.   

Not trying to incite. What’s your position? That Moncada and his contract are actually a negative value? Or something else?

What's the possible point of getting into the minutia of analyzing numbers on a guy who played a very small number of games immediately after "recovering" from a virus that, while there is still very much we do not know about, one thing that we do know is that a significant percentage of people who get it experience chronic fatigue for several months?  Especially when the guy we are talking about flat out told us that he was feeling those effects for the entire short season, and the numbers on his foot/bat speed seem to back up that claim?  

This all seems like a pretty pointless exercise, no?

4 minutes ago, sullythered said:

What's the possible point of getting into the minutia of analyzing numbers on a guy who played a very small number of games immediately after "recovering" from a virus that, while there is still very much we do not know about, one thing that we do know is that a significant percentage of people who get it experience chronic fatigue for several months?  Especially when the guy we are talking about flat out told us that he was feeling those effects for the entire short season, and the numbers on his foot/bat speed seem to back up that claim?  

This all seems like a pretty pointless exercise, no?

The offseason

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

6 minutes ago, MackowiakYakYak said:

Not trying to incite. What’s your position? That Moncada and his contract are actually a negative value? Or something else?

I have not offered an opinion on the value of Moncada's contract. I did not bring up Moncada or his contract. Moncada was brought up by someone else as an example of inconsistencies in how Baseball Trade Values calculates surplus value. That led to a discussion on the efficacy of various ways to calculate SV.  

In case anyone missed the tag on the post - this was split off from the Reds' Fire Sale thread, because the discussion around Moncada's value had derailed it.

11 hours ago, sullythered said:

What's the possible point of getting into the minutia of analyzing numbers on a guy who played a very small number of games immediately after "recovering" from a virus that, while there is still very much we do not know about, one thing that we do know is that a significant percentage of people who get it experience chronic fatigue for several months?  Especially when the guy we are talking about flat out told us that he was feeling those effects for the entire short season, and the numbers on his foot/bat speed seem to back up that claim?  

This all seems like a pretty pointless exercise, no?

Because it's status quo. I made a point about Madrigal in another thread pertaining to how ridiculous it is to make all the assumptions possible about who Madrigal will be based on a sample size of less than 60 games for a rookie season (ignoring the fact he hit .340 in that sample size, mind you) where I brought up how everyone gave up on Moncada after less than a year in the bigs, somehow failing to realize that most of the time prospects take time to develop. NATURALLY.

At least people are consistent with their irrationality around here, I guess. I consider myself a stat guy but some people really take it to a level of ridiculous. 

Edited December 25, 20205 yr by RagahRagah

I'm worried about that post covid "long haulers" disease people have after being cleared of the virus. the number 1 symptom is fatigue

33 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

I'm worried about that post covid "long haulers" disease people have after being cleared of the virus. the number 1 symptom is fatigue

Is there any news on how Yoan is feeling?

3 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:

Is there any news on how Yoan is feeling?

Obviously no, but even if there was news, good or bad, things could change by the start of the season with this stupid bug.

On 12/23/2020 at 8:28 PM, Flash said:

Yes, some their surplus value projections are simply bad.  For example, they have Moncada at negative surplus value which candidly is straight up embarrassing.  Again, the tool is cool and very user friendly, but it’s only as good as the inputs and clearly there are some cracks in that department.

Meant to send this sooner. Chicago White Sox is entirely correct. While trying to detect the flaw in BTVs model, I overlooked the obvious disconnect...they list Moncada's contract as having 3 yrs and $85M left. Hense CWS comment "it’s only as good as the inputs and clearly there are some cracks in that department." was prescient and accurate. When agjusted for the correct inputs Yoans SV likely exceeds $50M. Apologies to CWS.  

1 hour ago, Flash said:

Meant to send this sooner. Chicago White Sox is entirely correct. While trying to detect the flaw in BTVs model, I overlooked the obvious disconnect...they list Moncada's contract as having 3 yrs and $85M left. Hense CWS comment "it’s only as good as the inputs and clearly there are some cracks in that department." was prescient and accurate. When agjusted for the correct inputs Yoans SV likely exceeds $50M. Apologies to CWS.  

All good!  Apologies if I came off as overly aggressive in any of my posts.

I’ve always thought that conversations like this are extremely interesting. Let’s say the White Sox did consider trading Moncada. Who would say yes and who would say no in this scenario?

Braves get: Yoan Moncada

White Sox get: Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright

On 12/23/2020 at 7:16 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, some their surplus value projections are simply bad.  For example, they have Moncada at negative surplus value which candidly is straight up embarrassing.  Again, the tool is cool and very user friendly, but it’s only as good as the inputs and clearly there are some cracks in that department.

Maybe the website subscribes to the Jack Parkman school of pessimism. Yoan Moncada won't be the same until 2023 - if we even have the MLB back by then. 

I think a huge factor for Moncada will be whether he takes his fitness/diet seriously. Taking this to the next level would be huge for him.

4 hours ago, ron883 said:

Maybe the website subscribes to the Jack Parkman school of pessimism. Yoan Moncada won't be the same until 2023 - if we even have the MLB back by then. 

Or it could be that the website thinks that his 2017-18 is closer to who he actually is and his 2019 was a fluke based on his covid-ravaged 2020 being similar to 2017/18. If you're not a Sox fan that's a rational opinion......but we know better(we hope) 

Edited December 26, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

Back in the day...Moncada would have the added pressure of being the man everyone is counting on.  I love that there is a minimum of pressure to carry the team on any player.  Jose got in great shape last year and that for sure was the primary reason for his outstanding MVP year.  However, it certainly helped that he had lots of help so as not to feel the need of carrying the whole team on his back.  All of our guys make up a "team" instead of the pressure that comes with the small personal slums that are sure to hit everyone during the daily grind the season presents.

42

Next question.