I have this perception that is apparently erroneous...and I think a lot of people who follow the Sox closely have a similar view....

...that Tim Anderson is the sparkplug, the savior, he who we are doomed without....that if he does certain things we win games, if he hits a homer, or has an RBI, we are certain to win.

...whereas despite being one of my favorite players, I typically view Yoan Moncada as just a necessary component, but NOT as a player who wins us games. He gets on base, he'll get three hits here and there, or take three walks, but they are just part of the story.

However, this season, statistically, they are almost exactly identically valuable:

FWAR: Moncada 4.1, Anderson 3.9

BWAR: Moncada 3.9, Anderson 4.0

Moncada .264/.377/.405/.782

Anderson .301/.330/.458/.788

My question is - ARE these players actually similarly valuable?

Or do the stats NOT tell the whole story?

 

I was just wondering a similar question about who I thought would be a better choice for lead off hitter out of these two. I know people are going to point to when they tried Moncada at the lead off spot like 3 years ago as a reference, but he’s a better player now than at the time.

Edited September 29, 20214 yr by manbearpuig

1 hour ago, manbearpuig said:

I was just wondering a similar question about who I thought would be a better choice for lead off hitter. I know people are going to point to when they tried Moncada at the lead off spot like 3 years ago as a reference, but he’s a better player now than at the time.

I definitely wouldn't make a change now, a week before the postseason starts, but I think next spring it's worth exploring whether the Sox might be better off with people other than TA and Jose holding down the 1 and 3 spots in the order.

1 hour ago, manbearpuig said:

I was just wondering a similar question about who I thought would be a better choice for lead off hitter. I know people are going to point to when they tried Moncada at the lead off spot like 3 years ago as a reference, but he’s a better player now than at the time.

A Moncada, Anderson, Robert 1-3 would be interesting... 

Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

A Moncada, Anderson, Robert 1-3 would be interesting... 

Exactly what I was thinking.

If you're going to take advantage of platoon splits, Moncada should bat 1st vs RHP and Anderson vs LHP.

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I have this perception that is apparently erroneous...and I think a lot of people who follow the Sox closely have a similar view....

...that Tim Anderson is the sparkplug, the savior, he who we are doomed without....that if he does certain things we win games, if he hits a homer, or has an RBI, we are certain to win.

...whereas despite being one of my favorite players, I typically view Yoan Moncada as just a necessary component, but NOT as a player who wins us games. He gets on base, he'll get three hits here and there, or take three walks, but they are just part of the story.

However, this season, statistically, they are almost exactly identically valuable:

FWAR: Moncada 4.1, Anderson 3.9

BWAR: Moncada 3.9, Anderson 4.0

Moncada .264/.377/.405/.782

Anderson .301/.330/.458/.788

My question is - ARE these players actually similarly valuable?

Or do the stats NOT tell the whole story?

 

I think your last two questions get to the main point and kind of answer it between the lines. This is a good Stats vs. Team Value argument.

With their offensive stats being a near wash (edge to TA for the steals you didn't include), their defense is getting closer (with an edge still to Moncada for how well he handles the hot corner), I think it comes down to has more value to the team outside of the stats.

And for me, that's TA. Dude is a sparkplug capable of firing up the team and turning things around, getting everyone's energy up for a rally. He provides that extra intangible value (dare I say TWTW) that gives him the edge.

A lot of people hold body language against Moncada.  Really, there is no wrong answer here.  These guys are both outstanding players, and big lynchpins in what the Sox  do for the next half decade, and hopefully beyond.

I love Moncada, but Tim is more valuable to this team based on non numerical data, such as his leadership pulling the team together and inspiring others. He also is a spark plug to start the offense when he is playing well, which is most of the time.

I agree strictly on numerical data, Yoan is the same / has a slight advantage, and is more important in the future based on being two years younger.

I do disagree with the thought of moving Tim down in the lineup. He is doing well in that spot, his replacement may not do as well or suffer a drop off based on the psychological impact of batting lead off, which similar to closing, requires a different mindset and approach. Never “fix” what is not broken.

TA is our giant middle finger to the other team.  He bats first. 

I uh, will be wrong. But I kinda imagine him like Beltre. Early in his career this impossibly talented kid with some boom years but also average years, and then fully putting it together and just being consistently great for a long long time.

Maybe injuries won't let him, but his approach and offensive game seem like it's such a high base that can go way higher, but it just comes down to consistency there. 

His 2019 was way less special than Beltre's amazing 25 y.o. season, but Beltre was one of those guy sit felt like people were disappointed by for a while given the package but then when he figured it all out could not be stopped even by age.

But more likely he'll be a completely different player. 

9 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

I think your last two questions get to the main point and kind of answer it between the lines. This is a good Stats vs. Team Value argument.

With their offensive stats being a near wash (edge to TA for the steals you didn't include), their defense is getting closer (with an edge still to Moncada for how well he handles the hot corner), I think it comes down to has more value to the team outside of the stats.

And for me, that's TA. Dude is a sparkplug capable of firing up the team and turning things around, getting everyone's energy up for a rally. He provides that extra intangible value (dare I say TWTW) that gives him the edge.

This is the exact discussion I'm looking for. It's interesting, because I think it brings to mind what limits us in quantifying everything. I think TA is absolutely more valuable than Yoan, and love them both, but I can't really point to a number as to why. It's fascinating.

Important to note Moncada is also likely not going to become one of the great defensive 3bs at this point. 

I get where people are headed as far as lineup construction is concerned, but I think it's virtually irrelevant where either bats in the order as long they are getting basically the same number of PAs a year.

17 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I get where people are headed as far as lineup construction is concerned, but I think it's virtually irrelevant where either bats in the order as long they are getting basically the same number of PAs a year.

On average each spot in the order gets 20 at bats less than the guy in front of them.  If Anderson bats #1 and Moncada #6, Moncada will have about 120 at bats less by the end of the year.

Man, this got me looking at their numbers, I didn't realize that Yoan has pretty dramatic home/road splits.  Like he has 2 HR on the road all season. And his OPS is 130 point lower.  

20 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Man, this got me looking at their numbers, I didn't realize that Yoan has pretty dramatic home/road splits.  Like he has 2 HR on the road all season. And his OPS is 130 point lower.  

Wow, I actually didn't know that. Home Moncada is basically left handed Moncada while road Moncada is right handed Moncada lol. I think how he's hit at home is what we kind of expect from him. 

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

On average each spot in the order gets 20 at bats less than the guy in front of them.  If Anderson bats #1 and Moncada #6, Moncada will have about 120 at bats less by the end of the year.

Moncada has been all over the map. He’s only had 50 PAs this entire season batting 6th. 

Did they state a pitch count limit for Rodon?

2 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Did they state a pitch count limit for Rodon?

Would they do that publicly before the game?

Just now, Leonard Zelig said:

Would they do that publicly before the game?

They did for earlier Keuchel and Kopech starts (pitch and or inning targets).

It’s not as though there is a strategic concern, unlike a postseason game.

Robert with five plays in CF already, wonder if he’s pulled to rest after 4-5 innings. ?

I think it's how you view hitting  that would make someone favor either one as a hitter and their value to the offense.

I put more value on slugging percent since extra base hits move runners along farther than getting walks does. If Yoan could ever get up his slugging to Anderson's level while maintaining his OBP then he would be more of a 6+ fWAR guy instead of 4 . But for now Anderson means more to the offense.

 

I still think the Sox should explore moving Moncada back to 2B next season, and bringing up Jake Burger to play 3B.  Moncada's slugging numbers are pretty low for a 3B player.  If somehow he can return to his 2019 slugging numbers, I still make that move, because I think Burger will hit better than anyone else we have to play 2B.  He only had 42 PAs this year, but slugged .474 with a 119 OPS+.  

Then, if Moncada returns to 2019 form, I'd hit Anderson, Moncada and Robert 1-3.  I might do that anyway because Moncada scores better than he drives guys in -- 71 runs v 58 RBI.  I mean, Leury Garcia has 54 RBI to Moncada's 58 in 140 fewer PAs. 

5 minutes ago, VAfan said:

I still think the Sox should explore moving Moncada back to 2B next season, and bringing up Jake Burger to play 3B.  Moncada's slugging numbers are pretty low for a 3B player.  If somehow he can return to his 2019 slugging numbers, I still make that move, because I think Burger will hit better than anyone else we have to play 2B.  He only had 42 PAs this year, but slugged .474 with a 119 OPS+.  

Then, if Moncada returns to 2019 form, I'd hit Anderson, Moncada and Robert 1-3.  I might do that anyway because Moncada scores better than he drives guys in -- 71 runs v 58 RBI.  I mean, Leury Garcia has 54 RBI to Moncada's 58 in 140 fewer PAs. 

We don't need to shoehorn maximum power into every position possible and just trash the defense. Leave Moncada at 3B.

Uh, they are very similar players value wise. Moncada has more upside left, TA is probably maxed out. I can see Yoan putting up a 280/400/500 season in his age 27-30 prime.