caulfield12 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Yeah. Chances are very high Lucas ends up behind rejecting this deal. Sox team options on back for core players tend to be pretty generous as well. I get not wanting to give away 2 FA years but that was a solid offer. Sounds like the non biased writer agrees. 2023/24 is his walk year, he wouldn't have 3 arbitration seasons remaining...so potentially giving away 3 FA seasons but much less backside protection if he has another injury in 2024-25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: How much was the club option year worth? That would seem to be one of the key points. For a pitcher with previous TJ surgery, pushing FA back by two years really dampens the value of that big FA contract if you're already touching your 30s. He's obviously betting on himself...and saw the trap door at the end of the Sox approach which was more to the team's benefit than his. This also has to explain partly the arbitration fight over such a small amount. The Sox were basically willing to give Lucas $45 million for 2024 and 2025, but that would buy 2 of his prime years at age 29 and 30. If he doesn't take the deal, he hits free agency at 29 and can probably swing a 5-6 year deal for $120 million+. That's assuming he's healthy the whole time. If he takes the deal and hits free agency at age 31, will he be able to get a 3-4 year deal for $80+ million? I think it's a lot more likely that he pitches well through his age 29 season and gets that 100 million+ deal than for him to pitch well until age 31 just to get a shorter deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 While this extension looked fair for Lucas, it just boggles my mind how JR just refuses to ever put his balls on the wall and go all in. Lucas is deserving of being the Sox first $100 million contract. Instead of 4 for $50m they should have gone all in at 6 for $100m Arb1 $10m Arb2 $15m Arb3 $20m FA1 $20m FA2 $20m FA3 $15m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: 2023/24 is his walk year, he wouldn't have 3 arbitration seasons remaining...so potentially giving away 3 FA seasons but much less backside protection if he has another injury in 2024-25. The offer was at the start of last season (Arb1), so it's 2 FA seasons he was asked to give up on that deal. Edited March 24, 2022 by HOFHurt35 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: There's not a lot of comparison points for recent guys hitting FA after putting up multiple 5 win seasons. Lucas put up a 5 win season in 2019, was on pace for another in 2020, and put up a 4 win season in 2021. Jose Berrios was a step below that, 4-1-4 in fWAR the last 3 years, and he got $7/$130. The next step up from that is guys like Sale and Strasburg, who are pushing $30 million per season in their deals for various lengths. They were regular 5+ win pitchers before signing theirs. So there's seemingly a big difference depending on what he does the next 2 years. A little bit better could legitimately be worth $50 million to him. So essentially if Lucas pitches well in 2025 it's 5/70...but he could be injured and the club option works against his getting that massive payout if the Sox control him at that stage of his career for only $20 million again...when he would be hitting free agency younger and looking at $30+ per season like it would take to equal the Berrios deal (2/$60 after Year 5). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: The offer was at the start of last season (Arb1), so it's 2 FA seasons he was asked to give up on that deal. Okay, that makes more sense. It seems sort of fair, but not compared to Berrios and not with a Year 5 club option vs. mutual or player option. That would have made the Sox window they were 100% willing to commit to through the 2024 season, with all bets after that hedged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/jose-berrios-18945/ Compare year by year with Berrios at 7/$131 including signing bonus of $5 million, as well as differences in options and incentives. How would Giolito's reported deal be even close? Very suspicious timing to release this the day after a contentious hearing with ill feelings from the player and his family. Not surprising at all to see things end this way. The White Sox only believe in club options, and that approach is going the way of the dinosaur if you want to attract the best talent today, good luck with that. Edited March 24, 2022 by caulfield12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, chw42 said: I think Lucas probably would have taken that deal had the option not been in there. No matter how much you thought he would get in arb, he was gonna make anywhere from 20-27 million in that last year of the deal. He'd still hit free agency at age 30 while setting up his family for life basically. But if he gets to free agency at age 31, the likelihood of him getting a 5 or 6 year deal basically goes out the window. The more I think about it the more I agree that it’s probably the team option that was a nonstarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Tnetennba said: The more I think about it the more I agree that it’s probably the team option that was a nonstarter. It's like Machado in a different way...always about an additional guaranteed year, or a club option. That's why the only Boras players we will succeed with will be internal draft picks or be finding a home for guys like Rodon who need to rebuild value before going back on the open market. But we usually don't take those guys either, unless there's a possibility of team control in the second year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) Keep in mind the Rockies just signed Ryan McMahon to a $70 million extension… No way Giolito thinks he’s remotely in the same zip code let alone neighborhood as that guy. That’s what, commitments amounting to a quarter of a billion dollars in about the span of a week from one of the “crying poor” owners. Edited March 25, 2022 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) Don't blame him for wanting to go to free agency ASAP. 🤷♂️ Throw a real extension offer in his lap and see if he takes it. Edited March 25, 2022 by Bob Sacamano 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Bump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capn12 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 So the Sox just gave him his final ask. Not a bad move, but honestly at this stage, it probably won't move the needle long term, but it also can't hurt. Glad this is done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: So the Sox just gave him his final ask. Not a bad move, but honestly at this stage, it probably won't move the needle long term, but it also can't hurt. Glad this is done. After his role in the CBA they had to make him work for it . Edited April 1, 2022 by ptatc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 10 hours ago, ptatc said: After his role in the CBA they had to make him work for it . The F***? So we are illegally retaliating for being a part of a union negotiating team? Please go admit that in court. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Balta1701 said: The F***? So we are illegally retaliating for being a part of a union negotiating team? Please go admit that in court. Sure. They'll admit that. Just like all bargaining units do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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