Arb cases happening today

[caulfield12]

35 minutes ago, PorkChopExpress said:

If that relationship is already bad, then yeah, screwing him over won't make it any worse.  Plus, it's what this says about how you treat your players to every other player out there, particularly free agents, but also guys on your current roster and in your system, i.e., $50k, and winning the arbitration dispute is more important than rewarding good performance and winning actual baseball games.  Kind of like providing crappy, flat champagne for a victory celebration.      

There's also no way in hell Giolito will undervalue himself and provide a hometown discount, either.  It's different negotiating with players who are creating generational wealth for their family the very first time and largely desire security.  Giolito is in a different place.

[Jerksticks]

What a punk.  Your boss just offered you over 7 million dollars which is fair market and you went full b**** to make a PR stunt.  Thanks bro.  Thanks for the distraction. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

What a punk.  Your boss just offered you over 7 million dollars which is fair market and you went full b**** to make a PR stunt.  Thanks bro.  Thanks for the distraction. 

Poppy Sox hijacked your account, pal/bro?

[Tnetennba]

 

[2Deep]

Can someone who understands the arbitration process please explain to me why the white sox would do this to one of their best players for $50K???

This makes no friking sense and usually not like this team.

[Balta1701]

23 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

Can someone who understands the arbitration process please explain to me why the white sox would do this to one of their best players for $50K???

This makes no friking sense and usually not like this team.

Each side submits a number to an arbitrator, giving some amount of a raise over the previous year. If it gets to arbitration, the player argues for why he’s worth his number, the team argues why he wasn’t. They also argue based on precedents from other previous contracts.

In General, many teams don’t want to go through that process. Prior to a deadline, the sides can agree to a contract that is typically in the middle of the two sides- this prevents the team from having to explain why their player sucks. Note that the Blue Jays didn’t want to go through that with Chapman right after trading for him. The White Sox almost never go to arbitration, it’s been like 1 player in 15 years before this, if that.

The White Sox and Giolito were negotiating and got to a whopping $50k apart. Why they didn’t make a counter offer to split the difference- maybe even for $25k, is totally baffling.

The White Sox submitted a number to the arbitrator $100k lower than their last contract offer, Giolito submitted a number $50k higher. Going though this process could save them as much as $150k. It has likely infuriated one of their best players to save that admittedly tiny slice of money, and they might lose their case anyway.

This is either then being unbelievably cheap, or retaliating against Giolito for being the team’s player representative. Feel free to be cynical this is infuriating.

 

[Middle Buffalo]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

He made something like $15-18 million with the White Sox.

On the free agent market, just last season's fWAR from Rodon would blow that out of the water.  Of course, we all feel he underachieved, but they also didn't have the right coaches to get the most out of his talent, either.

He was injured a lot. Can’t be coached off the DL.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

He was injured a lot. Can’t be coached off the DL.

But still managed a 4.9 fWAR.  You can say the same thing for Luis Robert, but pretty much the entire future of the franchise hinges around him and TA/Cease/Kopech to a lesser extent.

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Each side submits a number to an arbitrator, giving some amount of a raise over the previous year. If it gets to arbitration, the player argues for why he’s worth his number, the team argues why he wasn’t. They also argue based on precedents from other previous contracts.

In General, many teams don’t want to go through that process. Prior to a deadline, the sides can agree to a contract that is typically in the middle of the two sides- this prevents the team from having to explain why their player sucks. Note that the Blue Jays didn’t want to go through that with Chapman right after trading for him. The White Sox almost never go to arbitration, it’s been like 1 player in 15 years before this, if that.

The White Sox and Giolito were negotiating and got to a whopping $50k apart. Why they didn’t make a counter offer to split the difference- maybe even for $25k, is totally baffling.

The White Sox submitted a number to the arbitrator $100k lower than their last contract offer, Giolito submitted a number $50k higher. Going though this process could save them as much as $150k. It has likely infuriated one of their best players to save that admittedly tiny slice of money, and they might lose their case anyway.

This is either then being unbelievably cheap, or retaliating against Giolito for being the team’s player representative. Feel free to be cynical this is infuriating.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/03/23/the-white-sox-failed-to-come-to-a-deal-with-lucas-giolito-because-of-50000/

 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

By the way, Rick Hahn HLS 1996, it's not "HAP," it's called a GAP.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Texsox said:

Actually ask him how much for four years and write up the deal. 

Zobrist?   Which super-utility player in his 30's are we going after now?

[Chisoxfn]

9 hours ago, chw42 said:

When did this happen?

Who is hard Karl?

[chw42]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Who is hard Karl?

Rodon lol

[Tnetennba]

 

[Tnetennba]

What. A. Joke.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

 

How many free agent years would that have bought out? 1 right?

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

How many free agent years would that have bought out? 1 right?

"The Sox offered Giolito a four-year, $50MM deal covering the 2021-24 seasons (Giolito’s three remaining arbitration-eligible years and his first free agent year), and there was also a club option for the 2025 campaign."

[Tnetennba]

Last 3 Arb years, then 1 FA year at likely a lower salary than he'd get on the first year of a new deal, and a team option that also keeps him underpaid for another year.  Gio has earned better than that.  That's a slap in the face.

[chw42]

17 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Last 3 Arb years, then 1 FA year at likely a lower salary than he'd get on the first year of a new deal, and a team option that also keeps him underpaid for another year.  Gio has earned better than that.  That's a slap in the face.

Arb 1 - $4 million

Arb 2 - $7.5 million

Arb 3 - $11 million

Let's assume those are the arbitration salaries for Gio. Unless he goes and wins the Cy Young next year, I think $11-12 million is what he's gonna get next year. That means that the Sox were basically willing to pay him $27.5 million in his walk-year. I'm not sure what the team option would have been, but I wouldn't call that deal a slap in the face. 

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Arb 1 - $4 million

Arb 2 - $7.5 million

Arb 3 - $11 million

Let's assume those are the arbitration salaries for Gio. Unless he goes and wins the Cy Young next year, I think $11-12 million is what he's gonna get next year. That means that the Sox were basically willing to pay him $27.5 million in his walk-year. I'm not sure what the team option would have been, but I wouldn't call that deal a slap in the face. 

In my head I was thinking those earlier Arb years were higher.  It's not as terrible as I thought after your breakdown.

What's a fair contract # when Gio hits FA and what do those first two years on a new deal look like?  Yes he gets more in those Arb years but I'd image the two years of FA he's giving up a bit more than he'd get if he signed that.

 

[chw42]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

In my head I was thinking those earlier Arb years were higher.  It's not as terrible as I thought after your breakdown.

What's a fair contract # when Gio hits FA and what do those first two years on a new deal look like?  Yes he gets more in those Arb years but I'd image the two years of FA he's giving up a bit more than he'd get if he signed that.

 

I think Lucas probably would have taken that deal had the option not been in there. No matter how much you thought he would get in arb, he was gonna make anywhere from 20-27 million in that last year of the deal. He'd still hit free agency at age 30 while setting up his family for life basically. But if he gets to free agency at age 31, the likelihood of him getting a 5 or 6 year deal basically goes out the window.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

In my head I was thinking those earlier Arb years were higher.  It's not as terrible as I thought after your breakdown.

What's a fair contract # when Gio hits FA and what do those first two years on a new deal look like?  Yes he gets more in those Arb years but I'd image the two years of FA he's giving up a bit more than he'd get if he signed that.

 

There's not a lot of comparison points for recent guys hitting FA after putting up multiple 5 win seasons. Lucas put up a 5 win season in 2019, was on pace for another in 2020, and put up a 4 win season in 2021.

Jose Berrios was a step below that, 4-1-4 in fWAR the last 3 years, and he got $7/$130. 

The next step up from that is guys like Sale and Strasburg, who are pushing $30 million per season in their deals for various lengths. They were regular 5+ win pitchers before signing theirs.

So there's seemingly a big difference depending on what he does the next 2 years. A little bit better could legitimately be worth $50 million to him.

[ChiSox59]

25 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Arb 1 - $4 million

Arb 2 - $7.5 million

Arb 3 - $11 million

Let's assume those are the arbitration salaries for Gio. Unless he goes and wins the Cy Young next year, I think $11-12 million is what he's gonna get next year. That means that the Sox were basically willing to pay him $27.5 million in his walk-year. I'm not sure what the team option would have been, but I wouldn't call that deal a slap in the face. 

Yeah. Chances are very high Lucas ends up behind rejecting this deal. Sox team options on back for core players tend to be pretty generous as well. I get not wanting to give away 2 FA years but that was a solid offer. Sounds like the non biased writer agrees. 

[chw42]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah. Chances are very high Lucas ends up behind rejecting this deal. Sox team options on back for core players tend to be pretty generous as well. I get not wanting to give away 2 FA years but that was a solid offer. Sounds like the non biased writer agrees. 

If they were willing to give him 4 years and $50 million, they must have put that option in the $20 million range. The structure probably went something like $5 million, $10 million, $15 million, $20 million and a $20 million team option.   

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah. Chances are very high Lucas ends up behind rejecting this deal. Sox team options on back for core players tend to be pretty generous as well. I get not wanting to give away 2 FA years but that was a solid offer. Sounds like the non biased writer agrees. 

How much was the club option year worth?  That would seem to be one of the key points.  For a pitcher with previous TJ surgery, pushing FA back by two years really dampens the value of that big FA contract if you're already touching your 30s.  He's obviously betting on himself...and saw the trap door at the end of the Sox approach which was more to the team's benefit than his.  This also has to explain partly the arbitration fight over such a small amount.

Of you compare that to Berrios' salary in his theoretical first two years of FA, it won't be close. Then thete's that two year age gap...if it was a player or mutual option for Year 2 of FA, much more palatable for the player but not the Sox modus operandi.  

Wait a second...so the club option would be Year 3 of FA, so it would be buying out two and possibly three years of free agency but not close to the monster backend numbers of the Berrios deal to make it a no brainer if you line the two up against each other and compare their production as well.

Edited March 24, 2022 by caulfield12