14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Given how many playoff teams, this would be more than a bold prediction; it would be a catastrophe of injuries I'd have to imagine. Like 6-7 major injuries to stars. Even if they start slow, no one should run away with that division or extra playoff spot.

Conclusion: Very Bold, the boldest of bold

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

Edited March 22, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

Well sure, if 5 of your main 8 players underachieve, your team is going to struggle.  

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

I mean they could all have bad years, it happens. That said, I'm more worried about the pitching. The offense has several breakout candidates as well as regression candidates. The pitching has a lot of guy that need to play to the back of their baseball card and stay healthy.

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Given how many playoff teams, this would be more than a bold prediction; it would be a catastrophe of injuries I'd have to imagine. Like 6-7 major injuries to stars. Even if they start slow, no one should run away with that division or extra playoff spot.

Conclusion: Very Bold, the boldest of bold

I believe they are two possibly three injuries away from being non contenders. But they are deep in the pen. 

 

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

Boy, it's a sad state of affairs when a discussion forces me to go over to the gamethread for some good vibes.

When TLR retires again they will name Katz as the interim manager making him the first manager in baseball history without MLB playing experience. 

2 minutes ago, Texsox said:

When TLR retires again they will name Katz as the interim manager making him the first manager in baseball history without MLB playing experience. 

Apparently 3 managers without playing experience are in the Hall of Fame, including Earl Weaver. 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/mgrnon.shtml#:~:text=Joe McCarthy (1926-1950),National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Harper AND Machado! 

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

For people who don't look at the moon and see an asteroid, it's a little harder to see Jack.

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

For people who don't look at the moon and see an asteroid, it's a little harder to see Jack.

There's not a huge track record of success offensively outside of Abreu, Grandal and Anderson, and Abreu is getting older. 

With Robert you just have the sample from when he came back from injury, and with Jimenez there's his rookie year and a 60 game season against the shitty AL Central. 

Eloy's plate discipline is concerning and I seem to be the only one concerned that he's going to chase a lot of bullshit out of the zone. Doesn't mean he can't be good anyway, but I wouldn't throw anything in the zone right now against him until he proves he can lay off. 

Edited March 22, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There's not a huge track record of success offensively outside of Abreu, Grandal and Anderson, and Abreu is getting older. 

With Robert you just have the sample from when he came back from injury, and with Jimenez there's his rookie year and a 60 game season against the shitty AL Central. 

Eloy's plate discipline is concerning and I seem to be the only one concerned that he's going to chase a lot of bullshit out of the zone. Doesn't mean he can't be good anyway, but I wouldn't throw anything in the zone right now against him until he proves he can lay off. 

Moncada has 270 games at a wRC+ of about 127. That not good enough of a track record for you? 

Eloy and Robert were out most of last year and the offense was 4th in baseball. Robert has 550 AB's with a career OPS of 857. What do you think his floor is? Eloy missed much of the year and was bad by our standards after he came back and had a wRC+ of 101. What do you think his floor is?

Sox had 4th ranked offense in baseball last year without Robert and Eloy for much of the year, and without anyone having a career year outside of maybe Yaz. I think the Sox have a lot of wiggle room to go from 4th to bad as you are saying. A lot of those things you said last year but for Robert actually happened and they were still damn good.

Edited March 22, 20223 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Moncada has 270 games at a wRC+ of about 127. That not good enough of a track record for you? 

Eloy and Robert were out most of last year and the offense was 4th in baseball. Robert has 550 AB's with a career OPS of 857. What do you think his floor is? Eloy missed much of the year and was bad by our standards after he came back and had a wRC+ of 101. What do you think his floor is?

Sox had 4th ranked offense in baseball last year without Robert and Eloy for much of the year, and without anyone having a career year outside of maybe Yaz. I think the Sox have a lot of wiggle room to go from 4th to bad as you are saying. A lot of those things you said last year but for Robert actually happened and they were still damn good.

The only offensive players I feel comfortable with are Anderson and Grandal. There's just huge variance for everyone else. 

Edited March 22, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Apparently 3 managers without playing experience are in the Hall of Fame, including Earl Weaver. 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/mgrnon.shtml#:~:text=Joe McCarthy (1926-1950),National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Thank you for the research. 

47 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's actually not that hard to see their offense being really shitty, if Abreu/Moncada fall off and Jimenez/Robert have contact issues, and Vaughn continues to be terrible against RHP. All of which are distinct possibilities. Then they could end up with Anderson and Grandal being the only reliable bats. 

I find it strange that nobody is concerned about the Sox offense. 

"If three possible silver sluggers and a highly touted sophomore a suck, the lineup will be bad."

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The only offensive players I feel comfortable with are Anderson and Grandal. There's just huge variance for everyone else. 

This is going to be a fun year 

16 minutes ago, fathom said:

This is going to be a fun year 

I could see a lot of guys being terrible as much as I see them being good. It's a complete coinflip. 

Unexpected things happen every season. 

There's a lot of volatility on offense that is being taken for granted. 
 

Everyone assumes they're going to rake, and I think that is a dangerous assumption. 

Edited March 22, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

It's dangerous if you're neurotic and afraid of emotional distress 

31 minutes ago, Quin said:

"If three possible silver sluggers and a highly touted sophomore a suck, the lineup will be bad."

"Isn't the full moon beautiful tonight?" 

"Sure, but is is slowly being flung into space anyway, so why enjoy it?"

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Josh Harrison gets into a fight with Dallas Keuchel/Craig Kimbrel for reasons that are completely baffling, leaving the latter to retire from baseball midseason?

A little surprised bringing in an older guy like Josh. 

Moncada will break numerous records all in the studio. 

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

"Isn't the full moon beautiful tonight?" 

"Sure, but is is slowly being flung into space anyway, so why enjoy it?"

C'mon, I'm not being that ridiculous. People are counting on players being really good that quite frankly haven't earned the faith that the fanbase is putting in them. Those guys are really talented, but I think it's foolhardy to expect them to be great. There's a decent chance they are, but there's just as much of a chance that some of them fall flat on their face. 

Edited March 23, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

45 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

C'mon, I'm not being that ridiculous. People are counting on players being really good that quite frankly haven't earned the faith that the fanbase is putting in them. Those guys are really talented, but I think it's foolhardy to expect them to be great. There's a decent chance they are, but there's just as much of a chance that some of them fall flat on their face. 

It sounds like you are saying many different outcomes are possible.   Insightful JP.  

My bolds, in bold:

TA bats .400 and doesn’t win MVP because LuBob puts up 11.3 WAR in 140 games.  

4 Sox pitchers get CYA votes.

Sox win 109 games. 

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

It sounds like you are saying many different outcomes are possible.   Insightful JP.  

My bolds, in bold:

TA bats .400 and doesn’t win MVP because LuBob puts up 11.3 WAR in 140 games.  

4 Sox pitchers get CYA votes.

Sox win 109 games. 

Those are go bold or go home predictions there sir.  I love it.

34 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

It sounds like you are saying many different outcomes are possible.   Insightful JP.  

My bolds, in bold:

TA bats .400 and doesn’t win MVP because LuBob puts up 11.3 WAR in 140 games.  

4 Sox pitchers get CYA votes.

Sox win 109 games. 

Unexpected shit happens every year. Players have bad seasons, others have career years. Some progress a bit, some regress a bit. Some come out of nowhere, and others fade away to obscurity. 

 

I was trying to point out that there is a ton of variance with a lot of the Sox players because they don't have a track record yet. 

Edited March 23, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

I think this team will hit 200 home runs, 900 runs scored. It'll have better pitching than its ranking come October.