Lucas might be getting waived again.  WOOF.  Dude has cost himself some serious coin the last 6 weeks.  

13 hours ago, almagest said:

Well, at least we know it isn't JUST Sox coaching causing their players to be broken... spreading the plague around the league!

his velo drop was always alarming, the question is why did it happen 

27 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lucas might be getting waived again.  WOOF.  Dude has cost himself some serious coin the last 6 weeks.  

Man needs Katz more than he needs ReyLo.

Lucas needs to head to the Tampa or LA pitching labs because he is gonna have to learn some new tricks 

20 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

his velo drop was always alarming, the question is why did it happen 

The thing is this fastball velo is regressing to where he started with in 2017. His pitching motion change found more consistent velocity, but there was a concern it demanded so much of the legs it was unsustainable. He was able to sustain pretty well through 2019, 2021 (full seasons). I wonder if it just became harder in late 20s vs mid 20s, and he may have tried to find ways to compensate that have messed with the success.

1 hour ago, bmags said:

The thing is this fastball velo is regressing to where he started with in 2017. His pitching motion change found more consistent velocity, but there was a concern it demanded so much of the legs it was unsustainable. He was able to sustain pretty well through 2019, 2021 (full seasons). I wonder if it just became harder in late 20s vs mid 20s, and he may have tried to find ways to compensate that have messed with the success.

I don’t think it’s just the velo drop. The league has adjusted to him as well. I think teams realize or know what to look for and just sit on a pitch. There’s a handful of guys who lose velocity late in their career and learn to pitch better or differently to compensate. He hasn’t done that IMO.

12 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I don’t think it’s just the velo drop. The league has adjusted to him as well. I think teams realize or know what to look for and just sit on a pitch. There’s a handful of guys who lose velocity late in their career and learn to pitch better or differently to compensate. He hasn’t done that IMO.

I think the velo drop has made the elevated fastball/changeup that was so deadly a lot less deadly. Easier to rise up to 92 than 94-95.

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I think the velo drop has made the elevated fastball/changeup that was so deadly a lot less deadly. Easier to rise up to 92 than 94-95.

I mean, the biggest difference is that in the middle of 2021 his power changeup with the insane movement lost the insane movement. For a long time there, he was effectively successful as a fastball changeup pitcher because that changeup would break so hard it was unhittable. Once the sticky stuff ban was in place, that's the specific pitch he lost,.

I still remember this one from the start of 2021, this changeup to finish the at bat was mind boggling. That was both his strikeout pitch and it was the one that made the high fastball effective. 

 

 

Even with that frame and extension... no Spider Tack and hitters becoming so used to 95-103 stuff routinely out of bullpens has made his fastball easier to pick on when not located well.

And of course the MPH differential between the FB and CH has naturally narrowed as well over the last two years.

 

The more specific info about his change lacking the break and action/spin rate is obviously important as well.

Would have to look at Baseball Savant and his BAA all of his pitches this season.

Edited September 5, 20232 yr by caulfield12

And this is why we can't have pitchers signed to normal for every other team length contacts. 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, the biggest difference is that in the middle of 2021 his power changeup with the insane movement lost the insane movement. For a long time there, he was effectively successful as a fastball changeup pitcher because that changeup would break so hard it was unhittable. Once the sticky stuff ban was in place, that's the specific pitch he lost,.

I still remember this one from the start of 2021, this changeup to finish the at bat was mind boggling. That was both his strikeout pitch and it was the one that made the high fastball effective. 

 

 

Have a hard time buying this no matter how many times it's repeated. 2016-2018, Giolito hovering around 92.5 mph on fastball, 2000-2100 rpms.

He changes motion, gets velocity back to 94.5 mph average 4 seamer. Fastball gets to 2300+ RPM from 2019-2021.

2022, his fastball velocity drops to 92.5, spin goes back to 2100. His changeup spin was about the same. In fact it got more drop and more break in worse years for Giolito.

He also was just a better pitcher in the second half of 2021 than he was in the first half. 

Probably was just being tall, having good spin, working high in the zone with a disguised changeup caused people to guess constantly because they had so little time to react whether it would drop.

But give them a bit more time and they could. And now he's trying to make his slider mix in, and his curveball now. BUt nothing worked as well as a high 95 mph fastball and then keeping them off balance with changeups so they couldn't time it. Worked great until he couldn't do it anymore

 

5 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I don’t think it’s just the velo drop. The league has adjusted to him as well. I think teams realize or know what to look for and just sit on a pitch. There’s a handful of guys who lose velocity late in their career and learn to pitch better or differently to compensate. He hasn’t done that IMO.

There was a time when they started sitting on his changeup and he began to use the slider more, with success.

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Have a hard time buying this no matter how many times it's repeated. 2016-2018, Giolito hovering around 92.5 mph on fastball, 2000-2100 rpms.

He changes motion, gets velocity back to 94.5 mph average 4 seamer. Fastball gets to 2300+ RPM from 2019-2021.

2022, his fastball velocity drops to 92.5, spin goes back to 2100. His changeup spin was about the same. In fact it got more drop and more break in worse years for Giolito.

He also was just a better pitcher in the second half of 2021 than he was in the first half. 

Probably was just being tall, having good spin, working high in the zone with a disguised changeup caused people to guess constantly because they had so little time to react whether it would drop.

But give them a bit more time and they could. And now he's trying to make his slider mix in, and his curveball now. BUt nothing worked as well as a high 95 mph fastball and then keeping them off balance with changeups so they couldn't time it. Worked great until he couldn't do it anymore

 

If you are having a hard time believing he was using, here's the spin rates. I could remove the X-Axis and you could literally pinpoint the exact day that the sticky stuff checks started. Cease and Lynn show similar drops, literally on the exact same series.

The boys at PTI talked about Giolito, throwing him under the bus for being an awful pitcher since the trade,