Under what scenario would you consider offering Crochet and/or Kopech extensions?

[southsider2k5]

An interesting name on this list...

 

[chitownsportsfan]

I'd offer Garrett 3 years 55 million with a club option for a 4th at 25 million right now. He gets security and Sox get an asset with surplus value if he stays healthy. If he doesn't, well it's only 3 year 55 million and the buyout.

Kopech just sell high at the deadline or sooner. No reason to play with fire there.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'd offer Garrett 3 years 55 million with a club option for a 4th at 25 million right now. He gets security and Sox get an asset with surplus value if he stays healthy. If he doesn't, well it's only 3 year 55 million and the buyout.

Kopech just sell high at the deadline or sooner. No reason to play with fire there.

If his buy out free agency price right now is about $25 million, that means the two arb years he'd be getting about $30 million for, once you subtract that year away from his two remaining years.  I think Garrett probably takes it, but the Sox are losing a LOT of money in the next two years to do it, as we are probably talking of salaries adding to around $10-15 million if you went year to year in arb.  Unless you think he is a $30 to $35 million pitcher right now on the open market that is a superfriendly player deal.

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If his buy out free agency price right now is about $25 million, that means the two arb years he'd be getting about $30 million for, once you subtract that year away from his two remaining years.  I think Garrett probably takes it, but the Sox are losing a LOT of money in the next two years to do it, as we are probably talking of salaries adding to around $10-15 million if you went year to year in arb.  Unless you think he is a $30 to $35 million pitcher right now on the open market that is a superfriendly team deal.

I get it, the trade off is 4 years of control. Maybe you could sweeten the buyout if you want to defer a bit more or offer a 5th year. Too bad so much of our payroll is tied up in bums.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I get it, the trade off is 4 years of control. Maybe you could sweeten the buyout if you want to defer a bit more or offer a 5th year. Too bad so much of our payroll is tied up in bums.

Payroll falls hard after this year assuming Yoan and ILoy buyouts, they only have like $50 promised to 2025.  They COULD do it.  The other half is that covers years where we have about zero chance at contention, and is it worth it?  Like I said before, it is a tough exercise to match the two camps based on their own interests.

[T R U]

26 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'd offer Garrett 3 years 55 million with a club option for a 4th at 25 million right now. He gets security and Sox get an asset with surplus value if he stays healthy. If he doesn't, well it's only 3 year 55 million and the buyout.

Kopech just sell high at the deadline or sooner. No reason to play with fire there.

I feel like it would be wildly irresponsible to give someone $55 million guaranteed after 11 starts. At least for this organization.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, T R U said:

I feel like it would be wildly irresponsible to give someone $55 million guaranteed after 11 starts. At least for this organization.

True, but scared money don't make money. We need good SP if we're ever going to go anywhere. We know JR won't sign any good FA SP so this is our only path.

[T R U]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

True, but scared money don't make money. We need good SP if we're ever going to go anywhere. We know JR won't sign any good FA SP so this is our only path.

We don't even know if Crochet is a good SP yet. He has been excellent in May, but he also came out of 7 March/April starts with an ERA of 5.97.

I think you at least need to ride out this year and see 1.) How he performs and 2.) Is he healthy? before you start kicking the tires on an extension.

[chitownsportsfan]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

We don't even know if Crochet is a good SP yet. He has been excellent in May, but he also came out of 7 March/April starts with an ERA of 5.97.

I think you at least need to ride out this year and see 1.) How he performs and 2.) Is he healthy? before you start kicking the tires on an extension.

He's good. As soon as his HR/FB rate normalized his ERA got down to where it should be. He's also pitching in front of the league's worst defense. He's at 1.5 fWAR, 15th in MLB, right behind Cease at 1.6 fWAR.

[T R U]

37 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He's good. As soon as his HR/FB rate normalized his ERA got down to where it should be. He's also pitching in front of the league's worst defense. He's at 1.5 fWAR, 15th in MLB, right behind Cease at 1.6 fWAR.

He probably is going to be good, but again, were talking about 11 starts here and have no idea how hes going to hold up under a starters workload.

I would personally trade him either in the off-season or by next deadline. That's a tough decision when you're talking about a 25 year old SP that's performing but this roster is so devoid of talent its going to take several years to even get back to being a .500 club and by that time you are going to be losing him anyways.

This is also under the assumption that the White Sox will not be able to meet/want to pay what it would cost to extend Crochet if he is indeed one of the better SP in baseball. I can't imagine he takes a sweetheart deal here, he already bet on himself with this SP move hes probably going to be looking to cash in on that success.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

I feel like it would be wildly irresponsible to give someone $55 million guaranteed after 11 starts. At least for this organization.

Yeah I'm not a fan of paying that over 3 years but if he was willing to do a team friendly deal that guarantees him some money (he does have an injury history) for about 5 years, I'd do it.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, T R U said:

We don't even know if Crochet is a good SP yet. He has been excellent in May, but he also came out of 7 March/April starts with an ERA of 5.97.

I think you at least need to ride out this year and see 1.) How he performs and 2.) Is he healthy? before you start kicking the tires on an extension.

I mean would any of us be surprised if his arm fell off tomorrow?  I think we are around a 4th or 5th standard deviation expectation for what he has given us so far as compared to his injury history.  Call me what you like, but I am not sure I would be willing to bet on it continuing, let alone continuing for 4.5 more years.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, T R U said:

I feel like it would be wildly irresponsible to give someone $55 million guaranteed after 11 starts. At least for this organization.

A good org identifies as early as possible.

Of guys with a k% > 32, who have thrown 50 or more innings as a starter since 2019, only two have had a bb% as low as Garrett (Scherzer and Degrom) and he's 7th in K-BB rate for anyone with > 50IP as a starter since 2015. 

Crochet is special. If he stays healthy he's in a 1-1 conversation. Health is a risk, but the tools are there. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, T R U said:

We don't even know if Crochet is a good SP yet. He has been excellent in May, but he also came out of 7 March/April starts with an ERA of 5.97.

I think you at least need to ride out this year and see 1.) How he performs and 2.) Is he healthy? before you start kicking the tires on an extension.

He's not just good, he's in elite company doing the things he can control as a pitcher. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He's good. As soon as his HR/FB rate normalized his ERA got down to where it should be. He's also pitching in front of the league's worst defense. He's at 1.5 fWAR, 15th in MLB, right behind Cease at 1.6 fWAR.

I like to make bold calls so I'll say I'd rather have crochet next 4 years than Cease. Even including the big innings edge cease will have this year. 

[GreenSox]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'd offer Garrett 3 years 55 million with a club option for a 4th at 25 million right now. He gets security and Sox get an asset with surplus value if he stays healthy. If he doesn't, well it's only 3 year 55 million and the buyout.

Kopech just sell high at the deadline or sooner. No reason to play with fire there.

Perhaps a tad high, but reasonable.   Do it!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 5/22/2024 at 2:02 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I like to make bold calls so I'll say I'd rather have crochet next 4 years than Cease. Even including the big innings edge cease will have this year. 

Sox are more risk adverse and even more with pitchers.

Crochet has been a huge surprise. He's been a great story so far.

He's surpassed his career high in IP already.He's maintaining his velocity. He's learning how to approach different lineups. He's learning how to be a starting pitcher.

I'd see how he holds up for the rest of the season if he isn't traded and approach him with a modest team friendly offer that buy out 2 FA years. Maybe with an opt out for the 2nd FA year in case he's become an elite 180 IP guy by then.

He's still got 2 more Arb. Years in 2025 and 2026. It's just too hard with his health problems to know if can make it through the rest of 24 , then 25 and 26 without missing major portions of 3 straight seasons and know what his salaries will be in 25 and 2026. There's no reason to start offering him $10M+ per year and tieing up money when even if he stays 100% healthy hes not likely to make $20M combined in 25 and 26.

What exactly do you project his salary to be next year ? There's a long way to go this season to determine just next year's salary. Is it possible to go from his 800K 2024 salary to $10M next year even if he manages to pitch 125+ innings ? What if they completely shut his down or start limiting his innings to just 3 innings per start ? The rest of the plan for this year is a complete mystery.

[wrathofhahn]

Considering Kopech's lack of trade value, I would be inclined to give him a short extension. We will see if he can bounce back next year when we get him back into the rotation; if not, he is signed for a modest return, and given his skill set, there is a good chance he will have a good season eventually.

He is still a strong candidate to bounce back and prove something, even if he chooses not to sign the extension. As a rental, he is the kind of player I would be looking to buy low and sell high, so it makes no sense to trade him for scraps right now and then replace him with garbage that will never be worth anything next year. Accept the risk of a injury and let the cards fall where they may next year.

Garrett Crochet I'd trade for a good return. It is less about the 11 starts and more about where the team stands talent-wise. He simply lacks the control to keep him around. Sure, if he is open to a very team-friendly contract, but he is only 24 years old and will likely become a free agent in the 26–27 age range.

He'll want to explore FA and we will have to pay a premium to keep him. Since we are not going to be good in the near future, I genuinely do not understand why we would take a chance on a large extension with his arm history and where this team currently stands. Take the prospects and let some other team make the gamble that is closer to contention so they feel they should take that kind of risk
 

Edited May 26 by wrathofhahn

[WestEddy]

4 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Considering Kopech's lack of trade value, I would be inclined to give him a short extension. We will see if he can bounce back next year when we get him back into the rotation; if not, he is signed for a modest return, and given his skill set, there is a good chance he will have a good season eventually.

He is still a strong candidate to bounce back and prove something, even if he chooses not to sign the extension. As a rental, he is the kind of player I would be looking to buy low and sell high, so it makes no sense to trade him for scraps right now and then replace him with garbage that will never be worth anything next year. Accept the risk of a injury and let the cards fall where they may next year.

Garrett Crochet I'd trade for a good return. It is less about the 11 starts and more about where the team stands talent-wise. He simply lacks the control to keep him around. Sure, if he is open to a very team-friendly contract, but he is only 24 years old and will likely become a free agent in the 26–27 age range.

He'll want to explore FA and we will have to pay a premium to keep him. Since we are not going to be good in the near future, I genuinely do not understand why we would take a chance on a large extension with his arm history and where this team currently stands. Take the prospects and let some other team make the gamble that is closer to contention so they feel they should take that kind of risk
 

Over his career, Kopech walks 5 per 9, and gives up 1.5 HR per nine. He's actually touching 2 HR per 9 these last 2 seasons. I think Kopech is a strong candidate to keep doing what he's been doing his whole career. 

All front offices are infected with conceit. GMs look at a guy like Kopech, and think they can fix him. "Just move over 3 inches on the rubber." I'd be more than happy to take any package from any such team, so they can enjoy the 2 walk, 2 HR outings we've grown used to. 

I would try to extend Crochet this off-season, like, buy out the 2 arb years, maybe get 2 years of FA. Maybe hike him up to $6m/$10m. Pay him for the experience he lost. He would hit FA before his 30-year-old season, everybody's happy. If he rebuffs, trade him next TDL. 

We have an entire core at AA or higher. Our team will be competitive in that time frame. It would be nice to have a proven ace while Schultz and Grant Taylor are starting out their MLB careers. 

[JoeC]

I am happy to have been wrong on Crochet. I figured he’d be a 3-innings-then-cough-up-a-big-4th-or-5th-inning-thus-leading-to-a-5.something-ERA-but-with-“upside”-so-we-hold-onto-hope-for-him kind of guy, based on his complete lack of track record as a starter, injury rehab and usage, etc.

Glad I have been wrong so far

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, JoeC said:

I am happy to have been wrong on Crochet. I figured he’d be a 3-innings-then-cough-up-a-big-4th-or-5th-inning-thus-leading-to-a-5.something-ERA-but-with-“upside”-so-we-hold-onto-hope-for-him kind of guy, based on his complete lack of track record as a starter, injury rehab and usage, etc.

Glad I have been wrong so far

He's pitched very well...should bring back a good prospect or two come July. 

[wrathofhahn]

On 5/26/2024 at 11:56 AM, WestEddy said:

Over his career, Kopech walks 5 per 9, and gives up 1.5 HR per nine. He's actually touching 2 HR per 9 these last 2 seasons. I think Kopech is a strong candidate to keep doing what he's been doing his whole career. 

All front offices are infected with conceit. GMs look at a guy like Kopech, and think they can fix him. "Just move over 3 inches on the rubber." I'd be more than happy to take any package from any such team, so they can enjoy the 2 walk, 2 HR outings we've grown used to. 

I would try to extend Crochet this off-season, like, buy out the 2 arb years, maybe get 2 years of FA. Maybe hike him up to $6m/$10m. Pay him for the experience he lost. He would hit FA before his 30-year-old season, everybody's happy. If he rebuffs, trade him next TDL. 

We have an entire core at AA or higher. Our team will be competitive in that time frame. It would be nice to have a proven ace while Schultz and Grant Taylor are starting out their MLB careers. 

Prior to last year he was a 3.5 bb ish, 3.5 era ish, 10k ish pitcher who started around half his games.

He has had a bad stretch but that is part of the adjustment of being a reliever you give up a couple of runs as a starter that is no big deal. You do that as a reliever you spend weeks trying to get your ERA back down.

I don't think we are going to find five high upside arms to fill out the rotation and I doubt he brings much back in current state throwing relief. I know posters want to keep the dudes pitching well but that is exactly who we should be moving because with rentals and players with limited control those are the type of players you get a good return for. It's back to pump and dump time.

[Kyyle23]

We still feeling all this juice or what 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

We still feeling all this juice or what 

For Garrett?  Seems split right down the middle.

50/50 is still 30% higher than Hahn and Getz lol.

[caulfield12]

"Oh man, he was attacking today," said Brewers shortstop Willy Adames. "He had power stuff and we couldn't do much against him. He was overpowering us today. He has an unbelievable fastball and that slider/cutter or whatever you want to call it was incredible. After the night our guys had last night, he came in and shut us out."

 

"If you remember early on, that first, second outing, he was all out every single pitch," White Sox manager Pedro Grifol said. "He's pitching now, which is something that's really really good to see. It's just maturity, learning how to become a starter."

mlb.com

 

https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/garrett-crochet-showing-ace-form

Edited June 2 by caulfield12