Predict the White Sox win total 2025

[SoxBlanco]

Update:

At the start of the year, I told myself the Sox need to win 5 out of every 16 games to get to 50 wins (and then they’d still have two games to spare). So I will break the season into ten different 16-game chunks. I’ll update every time we finish another 16 games. Here are the results:

1. 4-12
2. 5-11
3. 5-11
4. 7-9
5. 4-12
6. 7-9
7. 10-6
8. 3-13
9. 10-6

Total:  55-89, on pace for 62 wins. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Update:

At the start of the year, I told myself the Sox need to win 5 out of every 16 games to get to 50 wins (and then they’d still have two games to spare). So I will break the season into ten different 16-game chunks. I’ll update every time we finish another 16 games. Here are the results:

1. 4-12
2. 5-11
3. 5-11
4. 7-9
5. 4-12
6. 7-9
7. 10-6
8. 3-13
9. 10-6

Total:  55-89, on pace for 62 wins. 

Sox had their worst 16 in your way of doing it between their 2 best. 

That translates to 23-25 in their last 48.

[chitownsportsfan]

So I went back and checked for receipts and the closest thing I made to a prediction was saying Vegas' line (which I believe moved to 55.5 right before opening day) would be pretty accurate. Well Vegas for once, probably will miss by more than 5 games and the "optimists" (if you can call a club winning 60 games that) will have proved more accurate than the 50-55 win crowd.

The difference? Pretty much the young kids really. You got like 10-12 WAR from Chase, Colson, Sosa, Vargas, Smith, Teel and Quero. That pushed us up from 52ish to 62ish. 

We'll do a grade thread for Getz and the Sox when the season is over but right now I think it's a solid C+, maybe even a B-, but it was a failing grade last year so we're going to need to continue to show competence. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 9/6/2025 at 10:42 AM, WestEddy said:

The Tigers had 7 losing seasons from 2017-2023, bottoming out at 114 losses in 2019. Their low finishes allowed them to draft Casey Mise (1;1) in 2018, Riley Green (1;5) in 2019, Spencer Torkelson (1;1) in 2020, Jackson Jobe (1;3) in 2021, Jace Jung (1;12) in 2022, OF Max Clark (1;3) in 2023, and Bryce Ranier (1;11) in 2024. 

I'm not going to do all 4, but the Tigers and Royals have bottomed out, lost a lot, and built from within. The Twins and Indians have also built through the draft, while taking advantage of having 3 doormat teams in the division. 

Seems like the Tigers got a lot of top picks for those years but it doesn't guaratee them getting to the World Series yet. 

Tigers might have been the last straw that changed the draft into a lottery if you look at the years they had all the high picks and changed it to a lottery with the new CBA in 2022.

4 years in a row 2018-2021 they had 1:1, 1:5 , 1:1,& 1:3.

2023 they had 1:3 . So in 5 of 6 drafts the got 1st pick twice, 3rd pick twice and the 5th pick once.

We'll see what the Sox end up with for their miserable records. They'd need extreme good fortune to get 1  1:1 pick with this wretched lottery sytem. 

[WestEddy]

33 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Seems like the Tigers got a lot of top picks for those years but it doesn't guaratee them getting to the World Series yet. 

Tigers might have been the last straw that changed the draft into a lottery if you look at the years they had all the high picks and changed it to a lottery with the new CBA in 2022.

4 years in a row 2018-2021 they had 1:1, 1:5 , 1:1,& 1:3.

2023 they had 1:3 . So in 5 of 6 drafts the got 1st pick twice, 3rd pick twice and the 5th pick once.

We'll see what the Sox end up with for their miserable records. They'd need extreme good fortune to get 1  1:1 pick with this wretched lottery sytem. 

The Tigers seem to have had deep drafts. in 2018, they drafted Casey Mise (1), Parker Meadows (2), Kody Clemens (3), Tarik and Skubal (9). 2019 brought Riley Greene (1) and Kerry Carpenter (19). Torkelson (1), Dingler (2) and Colt Keith (5) came in 2020. They also gathered some prospects from trading Verlander and Flaherty. So, the team is built mostly from tanking. Then they signed some free agents.  Detroit doesn't seem to have an overwhelming international footprint. 

But yeah, the Tigers aren't headed into the playoffs looking like a favorite. I'm surprised at their pitching depth, or lack thereof. That's a pretty mediocre offense. It's a nice group of ...above average players, but no stars. That's probably the Sox's ceiling without an international pipeline. Getting lucky and turning a few years' drafts and a couple of trades into a slightly above average lineup. 

Edited September 8 by WestEddy

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

The Tigers seem to have had deep drafts. in 2018, they drafted Casey Mise (1), Parker Meadows (2), Kody Clemens (3), Tarik and Skubal (9). 2019 brought Riley Greene (1) and Kerry Carpenter (19). Torkelson (1), Dingler (2) and Colt Keith (5) came in 2020. They also gathered some prospects from trading Verlander and Flaherty. So, the team is built mostly from tanking. Then they signed some free agents.  Detroit doesn't seem to have an overwhelming international footprint. 

But yeah, the Tigers aren't headed into the playoffs looking like a favorite. I'm surprised at their pitching depth, or lack thereof. That's a pretty mediocre offense. It's a nice group of ...above average players, but no stars. That's probably the Sox's ceiling without an international pipeline. Getting lucky and turning a few years' drafts and a couple of trades into a slightly above average lineup. 

I don't see how tanking helped the Tigers much.   Riley Greene is good, but even he's not elite.  Their elite pitcher was drafted in the 9th round.  Tanking gives one top pick a year.  And even then, most years don't have a slam-dunk/annual all-star prospect.  
Even if you draft 30th it's like you lost your 1st round pick, but you draft first in rounds 2-20.
The Sox didn't start losing intentionally.  The players turned sour and they didn't have a group of young players to replace them.   Unless you are a big spender, you need youth.   While the Crochet trade could be considered tanking,  it's a trade frankly I hope the Sox have the guts to make if they are good and the farm isn't...because they won't be good for long if they don't have a constant inflow of youth.

Edited September 8 by GreenSox

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I don't see how tanking helped the Tigers much.   Riley Greene is good, but even he's not elite.  Their elite pitcher was drafted in the 9th round.  Tanking gives one top pick a year.  And even then, most years don't have a slam-dunk/annual all-star prospect.  
Even if you draft 30th it's like you lost your 1st round pick, but you draft first in rounds 2-20.
The Sox didn't start losing intentionally.  The players turned sour and they didn't have a group of young players to replace them.   Unless you are a big spender, you need youth.   While the Crochet trade could be considered tanking,  it's a trade frankly I hope the Sox have the guts to make if they are good and the farm isn't...because they won't be good for long if they don't have a constant inflow of youth.

If you're losing your first rounder every year, you lose one good shot at a major league player. That would be a devastating loss for most teams. 

Here's greg's original question: "How the heck do fellow low market teams KC, Cleveland, Minnie Detroit do it? It ain't the tank/rebuild method."

I contend that Detroit's core is pretty much built out of the draft and a few trades through a rebuild. They have a couple guys on the 26-man who were international signings back in 2016. They could have gotten draft pics at 20 every year they developed, but they had a better shot with the better players of the class. Look at the average WAR of each draft slot over the years. 1-5 ends up with much higher WARs than 20-30. Because you're picking better players in the top 5-10 than in the 20s. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I don't see how tanking helped the Tigers much.   Riley Greene is good, but even he's not elite.  Their elite pitcher was drafted in the 9th round.  Tanking gives one top pick a year.  And even then, most years don't have a slam-dunk/annual all-star prospect.  
Even if you draft 30th it's like you lost your 1st round pick, but you draft first in rounds 2-20.
The Sox didn't start losing intentionally.  The players turned sour and they didn't have a group of young players to replace them.   Unless you are a big spender, you need youth.   While the Crochet trade could be considered tanking,  it's a trade frankly I hope the Sox have the guts to make if they are good and the farm isn't...because they won't be good for long if they don't have a constant inflow of youth.

Won wild card series in 2024 and lost a close ALDS to Guardians and will win the Division this year.

However that was part of my point that the draft ,despite all the very high draft picks, is the hardest sports to make the draft payoff and very high picks  help a lot but alone they can't get it done.

That why I loathe the lottery so much . It started just as the Sox were starting their downward spiral like thanks so much MLB. Its the one sport that didnt need a lottery show. The worst teams need the most help. It's like they hit the Sox in the kneecaps with a torpedo bat . 

[nrockway]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

I don't see how tanking helped the Tigers much.   Riley Greene is good, but even he's not elite.  Their elite pitcher was drafted in the 9th round.  Tanking gives one top pick a year.  And even then, most years don't have a slam-dunk/annual all-star prospect.  
Even if you draft 30th it's like you lost your 1st round pick, but you draft first in rounds 2-20.
The Sox didn't start losing intentionally.  The players turned sour and they didn't have a group of young players to replace them.   Unless you are a big spender, you need youth.   While the Crochet trade could be considered tanking,  it's a trade frankly I hope the Sox have the guts to make if they are good and the farm isn't...because they won't be good for long if they don't have a constant inflow of youth.

It's not like it is in basketball, but these Tigers are still going to add Max Clark and Jackson Jobe. I suspect Max will be a very good center fielder taken in the draft that we took Jacob Gonzalez.

Tanking helped the Orioles for sure. It's sort of like...would you rather win 70 games, miss the playoffs and draft 13th or win 60 games and draft first? 

And obviously that carries over into the other rounds. You draft first or whatever in every other round. I don't think "you lose your first rounder and draft first every other round" makes much sense. A higher draft slot is obviously better.

Edited September 8 by nrockway

[WestEddy]

7 hours ago, nrockway said:

It's not like it is in basketball, but these Tigers are still going to add Max Clark and Jackson Jobe. I suspect Max will be a very good center fielder taken in the draft that we took Jacob Gonzalez.

Tanking helped the Orioles for sure. It's sort of like...would you rather win 70 games, miss the playoffs and draft 13th or win 60 games and draft first? 

And obviously that carries over into the other rounds. You draft first or whatever in every other round. I don't think "you lose your first rounder and draft first every other round" makes much sense. A higher draft slot is obviously better.

And it's not just getting a guy 44th over 54th in the 2nd round. It's also draft pool. You get so much more money to spend at 1:3 than you do at 1:23. It makes a difference throughout all 20 rounds. 

[joejoesox]

I would be shocked if any team breaks the Sox all time loss record in the next 10 years.  rockies would have to lose the next 19 games to break it, not happening 

[Kyyle23]

The MLB draft is more developmental than other pro sports leagues, but it’s weird how it’s kind of devalued among fans.  It simply puts you in position to draft higher valued players through out the draft, and what it does is forces your front office(theoretically) to make better decisions in development.

unfortunately for us, Hahns regime did NONE of that, and also took their lottery picks for major league level need instead of BPA.  And here we are

[GreenSox]

15 hours ago, WestEddy said:

If you're losing your first rounder every year, you lose one good shot at a major league player. That would be a devastating loss for most teams. 

Here's greg's original question: "How the heck do fellow low market teams KC, Cleveland, Minnie Detroit do it? It ain't the tank/rebuild method."

I contend that Detroit's core is pretty much built out of the draft and a few trades through a rebuild. They have a couple guys on the 26-man who were international signings back in 2016. They could have gotten draft pics at 20 every year they developed, but they had a better shot with the better players of the class. Look at the average WAR of each draft slot over the years. 1-5 ends up with much higher WARs than 20-30. Because you're picking better players in the top 5-10 than in the 20s. 

 And I agree that Detroit was built through the draft.  But I question the tanking part.   Only  Mize, Greene, and Torkelson, among their first round picks,  have done much of anything and only Greene is a difference maker.   
Yes, it's better to draft 1st than 2nd; 2nd than 3rd and so forth.  I just think there's a lot of uncertainty in MLB draft and prospects; much more than NBA and NFL.
Need lines in the water; spins of the wheel;  thus I don't like punting in drafts; like a little quantity in prospect trades, even at the expense of, say,  a top 20 prospect. 

 

[77 Hitmen]

7 hours ago, joejoesox said:

I would be shocked if any team breaks the Sox all time loss record in the next 10 years.  rockies would have to lose the next 19 games to break it, not happening 

It took 62 years for someone to break the expansion 1962 Mets record of 120 losses.  I'm in my 50s and I don't expect 121 losses to be broken in my lifetime even if I live as long as Jerry Reinsdorf.  

Edited September 8 by 77 Hitmen

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, 77 Hitmen said:

It took 62 years for someone to break the expansion 1962 Mets record of 120 losses.  I'm in my 50s and I don't expect 121 losses to be broken in my lifetime even if I live as long as Jerry Reinsdorf.  

The Rockies looked well on their way for a good chunk of the season, and even they sit at 40 wins with 3 weeks to play. Getzy’s record is going to stand for a while. 

[nrockway]

15 hours ago, joejoesox said:

I would be shocked if any team breaks the Sox all time loss record in the next 10 years.  rockies would have to lose the next 19 games to break it, not happening 

have you watched the Twins recently? these horrible records, NBA-esque win disparities, are becoming more common in MLB. this is the new normal.

Edited September 9 by nrockway

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Gotta go 6-5 to finish the season to avoid 100 losses.

[MEANS]

On 3/18/2025 at 9:51 AM, MEANS said:

59, a little better but...

So close and to think I bet Greg’s house.

[WestEddy]

On 3/18/2025 at 12:08 PM, WestEddy said:

54. 

I got overly exuberant in the bold predictions thread and yelled out 60, but they're just not going to score enough runs, and if they do, Drury, Robert, Tauchman, Thaiss, maybe even Vaughn will be out the door sooner than later. 

Yea! Positive me wins!! Eat it, negative me!!

[DoUEvenShift]

I guessed 69 and the expected W-L was 71-91 so I'll count that as a win

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Yea! Positive me wins!! Eat it, negative me!!

Especially as Drury didn't even appear for the Sox...

[WestEddy]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Especially as Drury didn't even appear for the Sox...

And Drury was out the door much sooner. Positive me wins again!!

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

And Drury was out the door much sooner. Positive me wins again!!

This is your new schtick for the entire off-season lol?

How about "Getz is good, Getz is great!"...?

[Sox guy]

On 3/21/2025 at 12:36 AM, xcheck27 said:

51 - 111

Don't really know why I am going that high with how bad this team is. At least it will be easy not to watch on their new channel I don't get. Going to miss late night with Chuck and Ozzie...

Did you use an antenna before Xfinity picked em up

On 6/29/2025 at 7:39 AM, Sox guy said:

I predict 61 wins.  3 straight 100L seasons like the 2010s Stros.

 

Who then proceeded to have 3 straight 100W seasons a few years later

Off by 1

[WhiteSox2023]

On 9/28/2025 at 7:57 PM, caulfield12 said:

This is your new schtick for the entire off-season lol?

How about "Getz is good, Getz is great!"...?

No one could say that with a straight face.