SoxMachine Podcast on Free Agent Pitchers

[WhiteSox2023]

3 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Lighting money on fire. They should have paid Cease $30M a year. 

More hyperbole.  I don’t believe anyone said or expected the Sox to sign Cease.  Certainly not me, but you appear to be referring to my recent comments on some of Getz’s free agent acquisitions.

Even though Manoah is likely to be bad because he hasn’t been the same guy since his TJ surgery, $1.95 million for a potential starting pitcher is less than half of what Getz gave to a player everyone knew was a terrible 2B in Nicky Lopez at $4.3 million two years ago.  Also, it is almost a third of the money Getz gave to a mediocre reliever in John Brebbia at $5.5 million, which was just as bad of a signing for a rebuilding team.  Yes, Getz essentially lit $9.8 million dollars on fire when he signed these two players and they delivered a combined -0.4 bWAR in 2024.

Regardless, what @caulfield12 said in his previous post pretty much nailed it:

”Shopping at the Dollar Store consistently just leads to more extended poverty.”

What is the strategy here and where is it leading to?  Because it looks like another non-competitive season to me.

Edited Wednesday at 10:30 AM by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

Bummer on Ponce…would have been an interesting signing.  I think 3/$30M is about the max I would have gone on him and no way was he choosing us over the Blue Jays if the money was the same.  That being said, it’s probably unlikely Getz was going to make a three year commitment to a SP this offseason.  Still hope they add someone with some actual upside even if they come with risk.  I get you can never have enough guys who provide bulk innings, but Cannon, Davitt, and some minor league free agents can help there.  Swing for the fucking fence and hope you can luck into a meaningful trade piece come the deadline.

[WestEddy]

8 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

More hyperbole.  I don’t believe anyone said or expected the Sox to sign Cease.  Certainly not me, but you appear to be referring to my recent comments on some of Getz’s free agent acquisitions.

Even though Manoah is likely to be bad because he hasn’t been the same guy since his TJ surgery, $1.95 million for a potential starting pitcher is less than half of what Getz gave to a player everyone knew was a terrible 2B in Nicky Lopez at $4.3 million two years ago.  Also, it is almost a third of the money Getz gave to a mediocre reliever in John Brebbia at $5.5 million, which was just as bad of a signing for a rebuilding team.  Yes, Getz essentially lit $9.8 million dollars on fire when he signed these two players and they delivered a combined -0.4 bWAR in 2024.

Regardless, what @caulfield12 said in his previous post pretty much nailed it:

”Shopping at the Dollar Store consistently just leads to more extended poverty.”

What is the strategy here and where is it leading to?  Because it looks like another non-competitive season to me.

Lopez was coming off a season where he put up basically league average 1.8 bWAR. Brebbia was coming off of a very good year with the Giants. Neither were bad gambles to hold down a spot on a team that was a smoldering ruin when Getz took over. 

Fedde was a similar signing, and Anthony Kay falls into that box. There's just not a lot of payroll flexibility, and there are spots to fill. The ones that work out look like genius. The ones that don't, well, you're all over those. 

You know what the strategy is. Reinsdorf has debt, and they're not spending until the new player agreement is in place. I see them making moves that would put them around 75+ wins. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Lopez was coming off a season where he put up basically league average 1.8 bWAR. Brebbia was coming off of a very good year with the Giants. Neither were bad gambles to hold down a spot on a team that was a smoldering ruin when Getz took over. 

Fedde was a similar signing, and Anthony Kay falls into that box. There's just not a lot of payroll flexibility, and there are spots to fill. The ones that work out look like genius. The ones that don't, well, you're all over those. 

You know what the strategy is. Reinsdorf has debt, and they're not spending until the new player agreement is in place. I see them making moves that would put them around 75+ wins. 

It means they really don't plan to compete in the division until 2028...unless all the lookout issues are somehow miraculously resolved before December 1, basically one year from now.

So Getz has what is in essence a 4 1/2 year run of rebuilding.

[WhiteSox2023]

42 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It means they really don't plan to compete in the division until 2028...unless all the lookout issues are somehow miraculously resolved before December 1, basically one year from now.

So Getz has what is in essence a 4 1/2 year run of rebuilding.

And Ishbia can’t take over the team as owner until 2029 at the earliest.

[WestEddy]

This guy's name was bandied about as an option for the White Sox, in places. 

 

Emilio Pagan is returning to Cincinnati on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first year pic.twitter.com/GnDMs43yIk

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 4, 2025

 

[caulfield12]

36 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

This guy's name was bandied about as an option for the White Sox, in places. 

 

Emilio Pagan is returning to Cincinnati on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the first year pic.twitter.com/GnDMs43yIk

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 4, 2025

 

If you want to pay similar or slightly less money than Devin Williams or Helsley. You're overpaying a second tier closer coming off his career year and he's getting older, too.  Regression risk is quite high.

But the getting more wins in 2026 only pushes back your draft position to mid teens from 11 or whatever.

If they were actually going to attempt to legimitately compete in 2027...sure, then it makes sense.

[WestEddy]

The White Sox are expected to add another starter even after signing LHP Anthony Kay, via @scottmerkin

— White Sox Nation (@WhiSoxNationCHI) December 4, 2025

[WhiteSox2023]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

This looks like a fake foodie account with a more believable name.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

This looks like a fake foodie account with a more believable name.

When they say looking for another starting pitcher...they don't mention that it's going to be strictly Tier D/E.

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

When they say looking for another starting pitcher...they don't mention that it's going to be strictly Tier D/E.

Actually, I think they have mentioned it, over and over and over. Nobody's pretending they're going after Framber, or Giolito, or even Zack Littell. 

[caulfield12]

Miles Mikolas (37, 2.2)
Nestor Cortes (31, 2.1)
Andrew Heaney (35, 1.9)
Michael Lorenzen (34, 1.9)
Jose Quintana (37, 1.9)
Albert Suárez (36, 1.8)
Aaron Civale (31, 1.8)
Chris Paddack (30, 1.8)
Tyler Anderson (36, 1.6)
Jon Gray (34, 1.4)
Frankie Montas (33, 1.3)
Griffin Canning (30, 1.0)
Chris Flexen (31, 1.0)
Marcus Stroman (35, 1.0)
Max Scherzer (41, 1.0)
Austin Gomber (32, 0.9)
Cal Quantrill (31, 0.9)
Dustin May (28, 0.8)
Paul Blackburn (32, 0.6)
Jordan Montgomery (33, 0.6)
John Means (33, 0.5)
Alex Cobb (38, 0.3)
Germán Márquez (31, 0.2)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36, 0.1)
Carson Spiers (28, 0.0)
José Ureña (34, 0.0)
José Urquidy (31, 0.0)
Tony Gonsolin (32, -0.1)
Mike Clevinger (35, -0.2)
Wade Miley (39, -0.2)
Walker Buehler (31, -0.4)
Tommy Henry (28, -0.6)
Anthony DeSclafani (36, -0.7)
Roddery Muñoz (26, -1.9)
Drew Anderson (32, N/A)
Kohei Arihara (33, N/A)
Foster Griffin (30, N/A)
Kona Takahashi (29, N/A) -- posted by NPB club on Nov. 20

 

So you're on board with Dustin May???  Blackburn has also been mentioned. Marquez? Gonsolin?

Who is/are your realistic target/s?

Edited 6 hours ago by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Miles Mikolas (37, 2.2)
Nestor Cortes (31, 2.1)
Andrew Heaney (35, 1.9)
Michael Lorenzen (34, 1.9)
Jose Quintana (37, 1.9)
Albert Suárez (36, 1.8)
Aaron Civale (31, 1.8)
Chris Paddack (30, 1.8)
Tyler Anderson (36, 1.6)
Jon Gray (34, 1.4)
Frankie Montas (33, 1.3)
Griffin Canning (30, 1.0)
Chris Flexen (31, 1.0)
Marcus Stroman (35, 1.0)
Max Scherzer (41, 1.0)
Austin Gomber (32, 0.9)
Cal Quantrill (31, 0.9)
Dustin May (28, 0.8)
Paul Blackburn (32, 0.6)
Jordan Montgomery (33, 0.6)
John Means (33, 0.5)
Alex Cobb (38, 0.3)
Germán Márquez (31, 0.2)
Tomoyuki Sugano (36, 0.1)
Carson Spiers (28, 0.0)
José Ureña (34, 0.0)
José Urquidy (31, 0.0)
Tony Gonsolin (32, -0.1)
Mike Clevinger (35, -0.2)
Wade Miley (39, -0.2)
Walker Buehler (31, -0.4)
Tommy Henry (28, -0.6)
Anthony DeSclafani (36, -0.7)
Roddery Muñoz (26, -1.9)
Drew Anderson (32, N/A)
Kohei Arihara (33, N/A)
Foster Griffin (30, N/A)
Kona Takahashi (29, N/A) -- posted by NPB club on Nov. 20

 

So you're on board with Dustin May???  Blackburn has also been mentioned. Marquez? Gonsolin?

Who is/are your realistic target/s?

Gomber, Quantrill, Blackburn, Cobb Marquez, Gonsolin, Miley, DeSclafani - all seem like the realistic and probable options for Getz.