Dylan Cease to TOR, $210mil/7 years

[77 Hitmen]

On 11/26/2025 at 5:22 PM, TheFutureIsNear said:

Good for everyone around

Don’t get me wrong, there’s a chance the Jays absolutely regret this…but at least they are going for it. Must be nice 

Yep.  As Sox fans, we've spent the last 20-30 years remarking at how certain free agent contracts have been terrible for that other team and that they're going to regret it.  Meanwhile, the Sox have held the line at the $75M contract mark and have been one of the worst teams over the last 20 years in terms of making the playoffs and actually winning playoff games.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not going to pity these other franchises for their supposed stupidity, I'm going to ENVY them because we're stuck with the Sox organization's stupidity at how they do things.  

Edited November 28 by 77 Hitmen

[Snopek]

6 minutes ago, 77 Hitmen said:

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not going to pity these other franchises for their supposed stupidity, I'm going to ENVY them because we're stuck with the Sox organization's stupidity at how they do things.

Yeah, I don’t really understand some of the reactions.

We don’t like it when teams refuse to spend or try. But then we dismiss a contract like this as a mistake. Good luck finding that nearly impossible ideal middle ground.

[Bob Sacamano]

51 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Well, they probably see themselves within a window and see two years of Cease as worth the contract. 

For sure. I just don’t think he’s the guy you spend $30M a year on. “Five and Dive” Dylan is what I used to call him.

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, 77 Hitmen said:

Yep.  As a Sox fan, we've spent the last 20-30 years remarking at how certain free agent contracts have been terrible for that other team and that they're going to regret it.  Meanwhile, the Sox have held the line at the $75M contract mark and have been one of the worst teams over the last 20 years in terms of making the playoff and actually winning playoff games.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm not going to pity these other franchises for their supposed stupidity, I'm going to ENVY them because we're stuck with the Sox organization's stupidity at how they do things.  

100%. I think “value” has become a coping mechanism for fans of loser franchises. And I say that as a fan of several loser franchises. 

[Tnetennba]

2 hours ago, Snopek said:

I think we really need to start accepting that most deals for good players are not going to age well on the back half.

It just is what it is.

Getting past that reality, I love this for the Jays. They lock in a #2 starter while being squarely in their window to contend. And let’s not forget the division they have to deal with. Free agent splashes/overpays are more or less necessary.

Agree 100%.

Is Cease worth a $30M AAV in a vacuum? And for 7 years? Probably not. But was he one of the best available arms this winter for a team clearly in their window in one of the toughest divisions? Absolutely. 

If the Jays win the East and play in the World Series over half of this deal, they won’t regret it at all. It’s the price of competing at the highest level. 

[caulfield12]

Like the Dodgers...they have insurance now for injuries/non-performance in their starting rotation.

As things currently stand, the Blue Jays have a potential juggernaut of a starting staff set up for next season, with Cease joining Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber (who opted in for 2026), Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios to line up a fearsome five-some.

If they can then go ahead and convince Imai he gives them the best opportunity to take down the Dodgers...he will likely sign with Toronto.

We saw all the evidence of that in a 7+ game World Series.

 

Perhaps top pitching prospect Gage Stanifer (No. 6) could join him soon, too, but regardless of how well 2026 goes for this farm system, the 2027 rotation needed help.  And there's also Eric Lauer and the possibility of bringing back Chris Bassitt as well for a swing role.

Edited November 27 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

My comment isn’t that deep. He’s a guy who struggles to go 5 often. Worth 1.1 WAR last year. Not a guy I would be that excited to spend $30M/year for 7 years on. Maybe if it was high AAV short term deal.

[caulfield12]

fWAR

4.5

4.4

3.6 (traded at a low)

4.7

3.4

Worth about $25-26 million based just on this past year...but average fWaR over last five seasons is exactly in line with performance and FA contracts over the last decade.  Just the current price of doing business with the true heavyweight franchises.

Two extra years added for being near top of class premium tier along with Valdez Suarez Imai.

Edited November 27 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

"At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy for the entire season and Berrios' late-season elbow inflammation was just temporary, that's a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to strike big this offseason. This might not be their only move of consequence."-- Schoenfield

Grade B

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46994593/2025-26-mlb-offseason-grades-free-agency-trade-analysis

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/articles/blue-jays-signing-dylan-cease-155029540.html

Blue Jays are signing Dylan Cease: Here’s 3 reasons why the move will backfire

"According to StatMuse, Cease has pitched to a 4.61 ERA across 29 outings against AL East teams in his career. He has struck out 199 hitters and recorded a 7-8 overall record as well. For the most part, Cease has failed to find success against the division, but the situation becomes even more concerning when looking at his numbers versus specific ball clubs.

 

The New York Yankees — who will likely be the Blue Jays’ biggest threat for the division crown — have absolutely dominated Cease over the years. In six starts, Cease has a lackluster 5.34 ERA and has given up five home runs. It gets even worse for Cease against the Boston Red Sox, as his 6.04 ERA versus the team is concerning.'

Edited November 28 by caulfield12

[Chick Mercedes]

On 11/26/2025 at 5:04 PM, EloyJenkins said:

This is the type of deal Jerry would lose his mind over...and he is right. This is BAD spending. Ishbia will want to make some splashes once he takes over...but if #3s are getting 7/210...the league is totally F'd 

Yah. Jerry is smaaaht. 

[southsider2k5]

I mean two things can be true at the same time.

Jerry Reindsdorf is embarrassingly cheap AND this is a bad contract.

[wegner]

Good for Dylan 

[WhiteSox2023]

The deals are only getting worse.  The Mets are close to signing 32 year old Framber Valdez to a 6-year, $200 million dollar deal.  So yeah, this Cease deal really isn’t that bad.

Edited November 28 by WhiteSox2023

[77 Hitmen]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean two things can be true at the same time.

Jerry Reindsdorf is embarrassingly cheap AND this is a bad contract.

It remains to be seen if this is a bad contract.  If Toronto wins the WS next year with the help of Cease and then he's washed up during the last half of the contract, will it still be a bad contract?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/27/2025 at 9:02 AM, Snopek said:

I think we really need to start accepting that most deals for good players are not going to age well on the back half.

It just is what it is.

Getting past that reality, I love this for the Jays. They lock in a #2 starter while being squarely in their window to contend. And let’s not forget the division they have to deal with. Free agent splashes/overpays are more or less necessary.

Youre easily one of my favorite posters. Your opinions are always spot on and you probably hold your tongue on a lot of the BS you read here. I'm too much of a Sox supporter to see Sox fans constantly trashing the team like this was a Cubs forum. 

While I don 't buy into the Sox /Cubs fans fighting I do acknowledge the animosity is there. 

I understand there's a lot to be critical of but the amount of butt hurt has far surpassed anything I thought grown men could cry about over a baseball team . It's like a custody battle , just irrational biases against something you once professed love for but will coming crawling back to eventually. 

Sox podcasters and national media are more fair. I just saw a Baseball America Podcast with JJ Cooper & Geoff Pontes pontificating over the state of the Sox rebuild. And while they arent sure who will be part of the core they they were as fair as possible on seeing the youngsters flaws and what could derail or propel them forward. 

Funny thing was I dont think they mentioned the Ishbia's coming ownership which is perhaps the biggest reason to think the Sox finally could have an owner willing to play with the big boys. Jj Cooper thought Getz was really trying to modernize. 

If Getz can just keep the team developing prospects and pushing the win numbers forward for the next few years the Sox just might be in a position for Ishbia to come in with a flourish of spending to push the Sox from a near or slightly over . .500 team to a team  that can win the division consistently. The fans from 20-50 years old may get to see a new stadium and a pretty good modern team that supports the farm and 26 man roster with equal gusto . 

[Lip Man 1]

“A lot of people say athletes don't deserve to get the money they get, but the one law of economics that has never been repealed is the law of supply and demand. There is a very small supply of athletes who have the ability to play at the major league level in any sport--and the demand is great enough that they command these salaries because that's the law of economics." – Jerry Reinsdorf to the Chicago Sun - Times’ Terry Savage. July 30, 2000.

[wegner]

4 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

“A lot of people say athletes don't deserve to get the money they get, but the one law of economics that has never been repealed is the law of supply and demand. There is a very small supply of athletes who have the ability to play at the major league level in any sport--and the demand is great enough that they command these salaries because that's the law of economics." – Jerry Reinsdorf to the Chicago Sun - Times’ Terry Savage. July 30, 2000.

Physician, heal thyself.

[Lip Man 1]

22 minutes ago, 77 Hitmen said:

It remains to be seen if this is a bad contract.  If Toronto wins the WS next year with the help of Cease and then he's washed up during the last half of the contract, will it still be a bad contract?

Very true. It's all in the eye of the beholder. If Cease performs up to his norm, Toronto makes the playoffs a few times during his deal, and (I assume) they'll reap the benefits vis a vis attendance, marketing and advertising money it won't be a bad deal at all.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, wegner said:

Physician, heal thyself.

Way too late for that. That was just JR stating the rules of supply/demand. He never said he was ever going to pay top market value for top players. 

[wegner]

35 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Way too late for that. That was just JR stating the rules of supply/demand. He never said he was ever going to pay top market value for top players. 

Albert Belle being the exception.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, wegner said:

Albert Belle being the exception.

Merely to make a point to the other owners...not because he really wanted to keep him on the payroll long term.

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Merely to make a point to the other owners...not because he really wanted to keep him on the payroll long term.

Correct. That's why he had the clause in his deal about being one of the "top three" paid players in the game and why MLB removed him from the committee that advises the commissioner on all labor matters. They were really pissed.

“The owner who’s railed the loudest and longest about curbing player salaries had just broken the bank. Randy Levine rushes into the hall where he sees Rob Manfred, who’s just heard the same news. “What the f***?” says Levine, and both men rush back to Levine’s office to call “Bud” Selig.” 

“Bud” have you heard the news? Levine asks. Selig has not. Levine fills him in, and there is silence on the other end of the line. “Thank You,” Selig says. 

“Selig is soon on a conference call with the game’s owners and one thing quickly becomes clear: Reinsdorf’s stunning decision has broken any remaining resistance to the deal they’d just rejected. Another vote will be held in six days. But first, Selig wants to talk to Reinsdorf, who has spent the day telling reporters that he’s just trying to win. 

“It doesn’t mean I like the system,” he tells every reporter who reaches him. 

And that’s what he tells Selig when the two speak later that day. “But Jerry, all you’ve done is preach about getting spending under control,” says Selig, who knows there is little reason to discuss this much further. What’s done is done, and Reinsdorf has done what every owner in baseball has ever done, whatever’s best for his team. 

Reinsdorf has one request for Selig. “Please don’t work the owners,” he asks. “Let’s go to Chicago and have an honest discussion.” But it’s not long after Reinsdorf walks into the O’Hare Hilton Ballroom on November 26 that he realizes Selig has the votes he needs to approve the deal. “I can’t believe he fucked me,” Reinsdorf mutters and he’s still muttering when the roll call reaches him. “No” he says, but only Cleveland, Kansas City and Oakland join him and the new labor deal is approved 26-4.” – From the book ‘The Game’ by Jon Pessah. Pg. 199-200. Published 2015.          

 

[kitekrazy]

On 11/26/2025 at 7:20 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

That is awful there has to be a team option of something? He's not that good.

that's the price of not that good in the economics of baseball working every 5th day

Cease hasn't been good in the post season

Edited Sunday at 03:24 AM by kitekrazy

[Texsox]

On 11/26/2025 at 6:04 PM, EloyJenkins said:

This is the type of deal Jerry would lose his mind over...and he is right. This is BAD spending. Ishbia will want to make some splashes once he takes over...but if #3s are getting 7/210...the league is totally F'd 

The league is fine. These guys generate billions on revenue. Fans will keep paying.