Colson Montgomery HR prediction

[caulfield12]

https://www.soxon35th.com/what-colson-montgomerys-rookie-year-can-teach-us-about-his-future/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjwp-2rjNOSAxWVq5UCHRZ5GG4QFnoECAoQAg&usg=AOvVaw249hPFBBEap_HHYbcY8AVB

 

Corey Seager had a 6.2 bWAR while "only" hitting 21 homers compared to his usual 30-33 range.

Colson Montgomery at one point projected to well over 50 homers extrapolated pace wise until the end of the season.

He's also now the only Sox Top 100 mlb player ranked at #88.

An above average SS in a smaller sample size...but not Top 10-12 either.

Until someone takes the position away from him, he's the Sox starting SS for at least the next 1 1/2 to 2 seasons.

I voted 25-29 but would have predicted 20-24 before 30+.

[chitownsportsfan]

240/320/440 595 PA 29 HR 85 RBI 3.2 fWAR

[caulfield12]

3.2 fWAR seems way too low if his solid fielding at SS continues to hold up...but so does a 760 ops with 29 homers.

Hopefully he can pick up his OBP numbers.

(For example, look at HaSeong Kim's best SD season, that was 5 or even 6 fWAR or bWAR.)

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I'll go 29. I think he benefited greatly from coming up in the 2nd half - pitchers have the data on how to attack him this season. Mune will lead the team in HR's.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I'll go 29. I think he benefited greatly from coming up in the 2nd half - pitchers have the data on how to attack him this season. Mune will lead the team in HR's.

Let's hope so.

In a perfect world, it's:

 

Murakami

Colson

Teel

Benintendi/Vargas

Baldwin

Quero

Acuna

Meidroth

Braden Montgomery (not counting on that in 2026)

Roch Cholowsky   joking I hope

 

(Oops...already forgot Sosa, who actually led the team for much of the season in homers and finished with 22.)

 

Colson Montgomery SUMMARY

2025

Career

bWAR

3.3

AB

255

H

61

HR

21

BA

.239

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by caulfield12

[EloyJenkins]

it really depends on if he just focuses on launch angle and 3 outcome approach...or if he starts to really focus on contact. 

Option 1 - 3 outcome - 240/310 / 35-40 HRs 

Option 2 - Contact focus - 265/325 / 25-30 HRs

Which one would we like? Based on his previous numbers I think Option 1 is probably more realistic. 

Edited 6 hours ago by EloyJenkins

[nrockway]

well, my thinking is "over 9000" so I guess I voted 50+.

[soxrwhite]

Next,how many strikeouts?

[77 Hitmen]

His offense after coming up last year was encouraging.  But I've followed the Sox long enough to temper my excitement until I see how much he can sustain his success.   I'm voting 19 or fewer.  If he has 19+ HRs by Memorial Day, I'll be thrilled to be wrong about this.  

[T R U]

21 minutes ago, 77 Hitmen said:

His offense after coming up last year was encouraging.  But I've followed the Sox long enough to temper my excitement until I see how much he can sustain his success.   I'm voting 19 or fewer.  If he has 19+ HRs by Memorial Day, I'll be thrilled to be wrong about this.  

Same, I also voted 19 or fewer. 

[WestEddy]

I don't even remember what I voted. I "feel" 33 at this moment. 41 for Mune. 

[chitownsportsfan]

40 minutes ago, T R U said:

Same, I also voted 19 or fewer. 

If he's healthy and plays 130+ games there is no way with today's ball and his swing he hits under 25. The key will be if he's 210/280/400 or closer to 250/330/480. The former is basically 1 WAR SS assuming average defense, the latter is 3+ WAR.

[almagest]

61 homers. Need to keep our expectations tempered - not gonna eclipse Judge's AL HR record in his first full year. That would be silly.

[WhiteSox2023]

12 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

240/320/440 595 PA 29 HR 85 RBI 3.2 fWAR

7 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I'll go 29. I think he benefited greatly from coming up in the 2nd half - pitchers have the data on how to attack him this season. Mune will lead the team in HR's.

How are you guys going to go 29 and not just give him an even 30 HR?  🤣

[WestEddy]

If Colson gets 600 PAs, last year's pace would see him hit 44 HRs. I think the league will take him a little more seriously this time around. 

[Autumn Dreamin]

Mid to high 30's doesn't feel crazy to me and it's fun to have a guy I can say that about.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

49 minutes ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

Mid to high 30's doesn't feel crazy to me and it's fun to have a guy I can say that about.

This is where I am and possibly higher for Moonay. 

We keep hearing that Japanese baseball was in a deadball era yet he was bombs away last year in a year he was injured. There are enough mistake pitches made that good hitters launch. 

[T R U]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If he's healthy and plays 130+ games there is no way with today's ball and his swing he hits under 25. The key will be if he's 210/280/400 or closer to 250/330/480. The former is basically 1 WAR SS assuming average defense, the latter is 3+ WAR.

He is definitely capable of doing it as we just saw last season. What worries me is how awful he was prior to the call up, and what adjustments will be made from opposing pitchers. Was it a hot streak or is he just one of those guys who needed the callup to get going to his potential. 

My concern is him striking out 30% or more and hitting .190, otherwise you're right he's probably hitting 30+ homers fairly easily. 

[Snopek]

Low 30's if healthy, but I'm baking in some injuries and saying low 20's.

[SoxAce]

I'll say 28-29.

[Timmy U]

I am an eternal optimist in Spring, but every team is going to game plan so Colson doesn’t beat them. A lot will depend on the rest of the Sox lineup. So if Vargas, Mune, Teel, and Baldwin all take a step forward, it would really help. I say 35, but literally anything could happen. Wide variance of outcomes for Colson. Btw, spellcheck keeps trying to change his name to “Colton.” We need to get a Colston Loveland, Colton Dach, Colson Montgomery pic this summer at the Rate.